0344 GMT - Australia's banking sector will likely continue to face competition for funding next year, AMP CEO Alexis George says in a briefing after the Australian wealth manager's announced plans for a new digital bank division for small businesses. AMP will leverage U.K. digital bank Starling's Engine platform as part of this. The requirement that lenders repay the RBA's term funding facility is driving a need to find funding solutions, George says. "We are predominantly based on retail deposits because we don't have large transaction capability and that's why we're sitting here talking about something with Engine and with Starling because we need to broaden that diversity." George adds that more broadly, AMP is "experiencing reducing growth in its bank, as the company tries to manage towards a return on capital." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0122 GMT - Origin Energy's takeover by a Brookfield Asset Management-led consortium looks increasingly unlikely to proceed, leaving the Australian energy generator and retailer with a couple of options to unlock value, Macquarie analysts write in a note. They think that the most likely route is to demerge Origin's utilities and energy units into separate businesses, potentially securing better earnings multiples. They say that maintaining the status quo is harder to justify, but point out that it involves lower costs and protects credit quality. Origin could also sell its LNG interests to fund battery and renewable developments, they add. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$9.39 target price on the stock, which is up 1.2% at A$8.675. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0108 GMT - Family-safety app developer Life360 should meet or exceed its annual guidance, Bell Potter analyst Chris Savage reckons. He writes in a note that the Australia-listed company's 3Q annualized monthly revenue was broadly in-line with his forecast, while growth in global paying circles--a key metric of user numbers--was almost 17% ahead of his expectations. He sees Life360 having little difficulty hitting its 2023 targets. Life360 maintained its 2023 revenue guidance of US$300 million-US$310 million, and increased its adjusted Ebitda guidance to US$12 million-US$16 million, from US$9 million-US$14 million. Bell Potter keeps a buy rating on the stock and raises the target price 2.3% to A$11.25. Shares are down 2.6% at A$8.65. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0100 GMT - Aristocrat Leisure retains a bull in Citi analyst Adrian Lemme amid optimism over its earnings prospects in the Americas. Lemme acknowledges that the Australian gaming company's FY earnings fell about 2% short of his forecast, but says that they were in-line with broader market expectations and operational performance was good. He lowers his earnings forecasts for the next two fiscal years by about 1%, but observes in a note to clients that the impact of higher-than-expected design and development costs is largely offset by currency moves. Citi raises target price 4.4% to A$44.70 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 3.5% at A$40.87. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0003 GMT - GrainCorp's announcement of a small on-market buyback and higher-than expected dividend are viewed positively by Wilsons analysts, who are a little disappointed by the Australian grain handler's FY 2023 earnings. The analysts write in a note that GrainCorp's normalized Ebitda of A$520 million was about 4% lower than they had anticipated. Yet they welcome the company's A$50 million buyback and say that the A$0.16/share special dividend was higher than they had forecast. Wilsons is reviewing its marketweight rating and A$6.72 target price on the stock, which is up 5.2% at A$7.80. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2355 GMT - TPG Telecom's higher-than-optimal debt could persist for the foreseeable future, the company's newest bear writes in a note to clients. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew McLeod sees a path for TPG to create long-term shareholder value by scrapping its dividend and preserving cash, but concedes that it is unlikely to do so. TPG is considering selling its high-quality fixed-infrastructure assets to cut debt, but McLeod points out that this would diminish the earnings power of the remaining business. TPG's debt, which is too high to justify the stock trading near parity with larger rival Telstra, is likely to remain a drag, he adds. MS cuts target price 21% to A$4.40 and lowers its rating to underweight from equal-weight. Shares are down 2.6% at A$4.685. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
2216 GMT -- Australian fund managers Magellan and Platinum look to be inexpensive on a valuation multiple, but until outflows are stopped or reversed, both stocks are likely to show ongoing weakness, say Citi analysts in a note. The investment bank prefers Magellan because of its lower cost to income ratio, flows and improving funds under management mix, and future margin fee profile, but Citi adds that this is somewhat offset by management changes and near-term outflows. For Platinum, retail outflows and weak performance are negatives, says Citi. It initiates Magellan with a neutral rating and A$7.00 target price, and Platinum with a sell rating and a A$1.00 target price. Magellan was last up 2.8% to A$7.26, while Platinum rose 2.1% to A$1.23. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
2153 GMT -- The buyout offer for Atlantic Lithium by major shareholder Assore International looks highly opportunistic to Wilsons given weakness in the lithium sector in recent months. Still, the offer highlights Atlantic Lithium's strategic value, underscored by 50% of likely output from its Ewoyaa project remaining uncommitted, Wilsons says. "Assore has clearly shows its hand, but we also flag Piedmont Lithium, who are Atlantic Lithium's key JV partner (and funder) in the Ewoyaa project," analyst Sam Catalano says. Piedmont Lithium owns around 10% of Atlantic Lithium, and will take 50% of Ewoyaa production. "Vitally, we also note that Piedmont hold no pre-emptive rights to the uncommitted material or to Atlantic's JV share of the Ewoyaa project on a change of control of Atlantic Lithium," Wilsons says. That means any bidding war will likely be openly contested. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
16:42 ET -- Crop-chemicals supplier Nufarm's share price could be in for a period of extended volatility, says Jefferies. In a note, analyst Richard Johnson points out that Nufarm's stock has fallen more than 20% in value so far this year, reflecting a marked deterioration in crop protection markets. "Given that trading conditions are expected to remain tough in 1H of FY 2024 and the usual seasonal risks are elevated in Australia (which had been a key driver of growth in the FY21-22 boom), the share price may remain volatile," Jefferies says. Still, Nufarm's value in the longer term should start to reflect the attractive outlook for its seeds business, the bank adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
Regis Healthcare retains ample capacity for more M&A following its purchase of five aged-care homes and 644 beds in southeast Queensland for A$74.2 million, says Jefferies. That's because Regis only had A$6 million of debt at the end of June. "We calculate net debt-to-Ebitda gearing of 0.5x once this transaction closes," analyst Vanessa Thomson says in a note. "Assuming a gearing target of 2.5x, we estimate Regis could comfortably draw another A$230 million of debt and still retain circa A$100 million in undrawn debt." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0502 GMT - Xero may need to introduce more add-on features if it is to entice customers of its cloud-accounting software to upgrade to higher-tier products, Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed says. He points out that Xero's product development and direct marketing have traditionally been aimed at boosting subscriber growth. The Australia-listed company now wants to grow its average revenue per user and has acknowledged that it may need to be more sophisticated in its approach, he tells clients in a note. With Xero aiming to retire idle low-value subscriptions, Ahmed wonders whether double-digit ARPU growth is possible in FY 2025. Citi has a buy rating and A$129.40 target on the stock, which was up 2.2% at A$101.92 shortly before the close. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires