Pinned valuation:
Consider repositioning our approach to ANZ shares, viewing them more as a 'doorstop' investment than a vehicle for substantial gains. Suppose we recalibrate our expectations to a modest annual return of about 5%. This rate, while seemingly unremarkable, aligns with what one might currently achieve 'risk-free' in a savings account. However, let's think of ANZ as a stabilising element in our portfolio, a 'doorstop' to maintain a steady course while we pursue higher returns elsewhere.
Here's a proposed strategy: Whenever ANZ's share price drops below $25, we could opportunistically channel any available funds into buying more shares. The lower the price dips beneath this threshold, the more aggressively we could invest. This approach would not only capitalize on lower prices but also augment our holdings to reap modest dividends. Conversely, when the share price exceeds $25, we maintain our holdings and redirect new investments to other opportunities. Additionally, if the share price rises above $27.50-$28, we might consider selling, potentially all our holdings, to realise gains.
Looking retrospectively, had we employed this strategy since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we would likely have seen modest, low-risk gains. Over a more extended period, such as 5-10 years, or even 10-20 years for those with a longer investment horizon, this approach could yield a compounded annual return of around 10% or more. This is speculative, of course, but it's an interesting concept to ponder in our investment strategy.