Bad news for 8Common this morning with Gov ERP being canned (surprised this wasn't marked as market sensitive?).
https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231129/pdf/05xygcjr2vc2ft.pdf
This blows a bit of a hole in the valuation. GovERP had "a minimum of 110k new users" mandated to onboard. Or approximately +$5.5m ARR (at $50 ARPU).
After today's announcement, I'm guessing they might end up with 60k federal gov users?
My assumption here is they keep 40k existing users. Still pick up the 20k onboarding and get half of the 35k "phase 0".
Noting that they had ~17k federal government users before GovERP was announced.
Overall, I don't think it's a disaster. Existing and Onboarding users should get them to cashflow breakeven.
The big potential upside of a possible defence contract remains unchanged.
Anyone else have a different / better view of where they land after this?