Forum Topics 8CO 8CO GovERP scrapped
Hendy
5 months ago

Bad news for 8Common this morning with Gov ERP being canned (surprised this wasn't marked as market sensitive?).

https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20231129/pdf/05xygcjr2vc2ft.pdf


This blows a bit of a hole in the valuation. GovERP had "a minimum of 110k new users" mandated to onboard. Or approximately +$5.5m ARR (at $50 ARPU).

After today's announcement, I'm guessing they might end up with 60k federal gov users?

My assumption here is they keep 40k existing users. Still pick up the 20k onboarding and get half of the 35k "phase 0".

Noting that they had ~17k federal government users before GovERP was announced.


Overall, I don't think it's a disaster. Existing and Onboarding users should get them to cashflow breakeven.

The big potential upside of a possible defence contract remains unchanged.


Anyone else have a different / better view of where they land after this?


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Slideup
5 months ago

@Hendy, I can't see why the existing pipeline wont be fulfilled, some of the 'not yet engaged users' might hold off converting and choose a different provider, but given the positive view of the software and the internal recommendations within the public service I think this risk is actually lower than the media release first made me think. The main risk I see from this is someone comes in and undercharges to get back into the public service. A purchasing officer (or worse a committee) chooses price over service.

I think whether this is bad news or a non-event comes down to how good their software is, if it is providing a good experience and ease of use for the departments then I think they should still capture the majority of the users. If this is not the case then I think we will see the pipeline come to a halt pretty quickly, I do think this is unlikely to be the case though.

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Hackofalltrades
5 months ago

Thanks for posting this up Slideup and Hendy.


I was trying to work out what this all means and it seems the market doesn't like the news!


So does this mean effectively more competition rather than being slightly protected from it?


@Wini

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Hendy
5 months ago

My guess is that entities that are no longer mandated just maintain the status quo and stick with whatever they are currently using.

ie without being mandated, fewer entities will make the switch

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Wini
5 months ago

Agree with that @Hendy, the risk now is those departments who have dragged their feet can continue to do so. It doesn't fundamentally change much over the next 6-12 months but will need to see whether 8CO can win new departments without the mandate in place.

Wishful thinking, but it may also increase 8CO's attractiveness as an M&A target given the mandate is now lost for SAP and others as well. 8CO may be the foot into Fed Gov for other ERP providers like Oracle or Tech One who were previously squeezed out when SAP won the GovERP mandate.

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Scott
5 months ago

I note in the Govt Media Release

  • "GovERP being repurposed for use by Services Australia, and any entities that choose to use it. To gain ongoing benefit from the Shared Services Transformation Program, there will also be an independent reuse assessment of GovERP to support Commonwealth entities implement future cost effective ERP uplifts;"


Services Australia are huge and not listed as 'on boarding' so there is hope that they might still use Expense8. I am wondering whether they had the muscle to tell Govt that the central ERP model didn't suit them and they needed changes. Services Australia are a big SAP customer. They've just finished blowing up hundred's of millions on the Centrelink payments calculator using SAP.

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