Forum Topics BTI BTI Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 5 months ago

Just in the last month, BTI's listed equity Siteminder has gained 17% and STG also gained roughly 7-8%.

Cash + listed equity is better value than the current price- all private equity is free.

What am I missing?

Karmast
5 months ago

@Valueinvestor0909 I suspect what may have investors unwilling to drive up the BTI market cap in recent years is the longer term ups and downs of the business performance. I haven't followed the company closely and no doubt those that are have a better take on this and the future than I do.

If you look at the long term business performance it doesn't have the profile of a small cap that is really compounding upwards over time. Here is the snapshot of capital management, earnings per share and sales per share over the past 9 years -

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And here is the growth in share count over the same period and total company earnings and sales each year -

6906ab6d85ea376c532f5fb1ad53c7ddfd85fb.png


So while I get the past is not the future for the business and I am sure those following it more closely than I am have a view on that, to potential new shareholders looking at the business performance, it's not a track record that screams out "buy" at the moment.

As Buffett has said long term the share price is likely to follow the earnings performance of the business and so far at least, the annual history has been up and then down again.

No doubt there are plenty of smart strawman members who might have a different view on Bailador, so I am hoping for a strong upward trend for you all from here!

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Strawman
5 months ago

Nothing as far as I can see @Valueinvestor0909

Private equity is always much harder to value, but surely their non-listed investments are more than $0..

Feels like a free kick to me, but likewise keen to hear if anyone has a different take.

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NewbieHK
5 months ago

Agree. Surely, the price appreciation will start to come once interest rates begin to drop and the risk appetite for VC increases allowing money to flow back into the area. Combine that with one or two of their non-listed investments coming to market and a re-rate will hopefully forthcoming.

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Longpar5
5 months ago

I don't hold and I have not done the research, but perhaps the only thing I'd be looking at in finishing the valuation is how much you allow for fees and costs. Just a quick glance at last year's annual report looks like they spent about A$7m on management fees and running costs. Before arriving at a valuation I would be looking to normalise and then value that cost over future years. My heuristic is usually to multiply by 10, so a net negative of A$70m, which is something like 50c per share.

Like I said haven't done the work, so the 50cps could be way out for bailador, but just something to consider when valuing these businesses based on their assets.

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