Forum Topics BTI BTI Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Straw deleted
Karmast
Added one year ago

@Valueinvestor0909 I suspect what may have investors unwilling to drive up the BTI market cap in recent years is the longer term ups and downs of the business performance. I haven't followed the company closely and no doubt those that are have a better take on this and the future than I do.

If you look at the long term business performance it doesn't have the profile of a small cap that is really compounding upwards over time. Here is the snapshot of capital management, earnings per share and sales per share over the past 9 years -

85f10424b36522a46181ffc1bd2bed2fb3ccbe.png



And here is the growth in share count over the same period and total company earnings and sales each year -

6906ab6d85ea376c532f5fb1ad53c7ddfd85fb.png


So while I get the past is not the future for the business and I am sure those following it more closely than I am have a view on that, to potential new shareholders looking at the business performance, it's not a track record that screams out "buy" at the moment.

As Buffett has said long term the share price is likely to follow the earnings performance of the business and so far at least, the annual history has been up and then down again.

No doubt there are plenty of smart strawman members who might have a different view on Bailador, so I am hoping for a strong upward trend for you all from here!

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Strawman
Added one year ago

Nothing as far as I can see @Valueinvestor0909

Private equity is always much harder to value, but surely their non-listed investments are more than $0..

Feels like a free kick to me, but likewise keen to hear if anyone has a different take.

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NewbieHK
Added one year ago

Agree. Surely, the price appreciation will start to come once interest rates begin to drop and the risk appetite for VC increases allowing money to flow back into the area. Combine that with one or two of their non-listed investments coming to market and a re-rate will hopefully forthcoming.

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BigStrawbs70
Added one year ago

By the nature of their business, I find it very hard to come up with a valuation for Bailador. In such circumstances, I then turn to asking myself the following:

  • Will they be around in 10 years?
  • Are they likely to become a larger company in that timeframe?
  • What is their business model (i.e. is it working, and has it worked over a substantial period of time)?
  • Do they generate free cash flow?
  • Are the founders heavily involved in the day-to-day running of the company and materially invested in the company?
  • Is their current valuation underestimated by the market?
  • Are they doing what they say they will do and doing it well?


I am inclined to the view that there are 7 "yes" responses for Bailador, and therefore, I am bullish on the long-term success of the company, and let's face it, that is the only timeframe that matters.

Disc: I hold IRL, currently ~4% of total holdings.

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Longpar5
Added one year ago

I don't hold and I have not done the research, but perhaps the only thing I'd be looking at in finishing the valuation is how much you allow for fees and costs. Just a quick glance at last year's annual report looks like they spent about A$7m on management fees and running costs. Before arriving at a valuation I would be looking to normalise and then value that cost over future years. My heuristic is usually to multiply by 10, so a net negative of A$70m, which is something like 50c per share.

Like I said haven't done the work, so the 50cps could be way out for bailador, but just something to consider when valuing these businesses based on their assets.

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