@PinchOfSalt I am flattered but I think you overestimate my ability and knowledge. I will have a go at a response.

UBI has quite a lot of detailed analyst coverage which all got the share price wrong but gives a good overview of the company. Bell Potter the latest with a valuation of $0.38 Hold in January 23 down from $0.60 Buy

SP has been hammered on the back of delayed FDA approval of Xprecia Prime and slow uptake of the Sentia platform globally compared to AU. Roughly 5% ROW compared to 17%AU.

Margins for the the main platforms are Sentia 71% on TAM of $900M, Xprecia 66% on TAM of $1Bn, Petrackr 49% on TAM of $260M.

R&d spend had been big at appx 16% of revenue in 22, 8% in 23 and 6+% for 24. The unanswered question is whether they will pursue cash flow or continue to chase further development of the cancer, fertility, heavy metals testing which could take a lot of funds.

The big opportunity appears to be the US market for Xprecia Prime as there was a big hangover in sales of the old system as the deal with Siemens came to an end in 23.

Some interesting thoughts on HC on Prime revenue in India

"Just for reference the retail list price for a Xprecia Prime handset in India is Rupees 65,000 (A$ 1,150) and a Pack of 100 Strips is Rupees 22,500 (A$ 4 per strip). If we use the order earlier this year in Italy as a usage benchmark that was for 100 units and 130,000 strips over 24 months (65,000 per year). At a similar usage rate the India sales from this order would result in 330,000 strip sales per year. That is a retail value of A$ 1,320,000 in strip sales from this order alone"

Another post looking at cashflow.

"In regards the reference to $1.4m of sales a month for breakeven, I can't get the maths on that to work. I think the breakeven sales figure is much higher at $2.7m per month.

Showing my working in case anyone can spot an error.

From the six months to June 2023 report

- Annualised operating expenses of $21.4m (10.7 x 2)

- Gross margins of 65%

- Thus sales required to breakeven on opex = $32.9m (21.4 / 0.65)

- Monthly sales for breakeven $2.7m (32.9 / 12)

The December sales result was good but I still expect around $3m of cash burn in the December quarter."

Sentia widely regarded as market leading in ease of use and now with a suite of available tests should gain traction.

Petrackr has better accuracy and lower cost than most competitors.

Xprecia has about 2000 devices in market. Not sure how many they can deliver per year. Siemens had 5000+ installed on old platform.

Capacity to manufacture 70M tests per year.

So in conclusion

1. Cash flow positive? Probably not yet but with US Xprecia approval in 24 should be coming as long as r&d spend is kept tight.

2. Is the $1M repeatable? Yes but likely to be lumpy at this early stage with stocking orders for devices and strips before recurring strip revenue becomes steady.

3. Earlier broker reports had revenue forecasts for 24 @ ~$40M but Bell Potter Jan 23. @$16M at a current MC of $47M you would have to think there is danger of a take over before the good times appear. Top 20 holders own 64%

Hope this helps and feel free to comment Strawpeople.

Disc: 8% holding in SM down 17% and a small holding in RL.