Forum Topics MPL MPL Time to sell???

Pinned straw:

Last edited 4 months ago

Hello all,

Any thoughts regarding MPL. I've been a RL shareholder since the IPO and according to sharesight it has returned over 17% p.a over that time. A surprisingly good return given the sector it is in. My instinct suggests it is unlikely to continue to post such good returns in the future. It is more likely to stagnant and provide modest but reasonable safe returns in the medium term.

The original purchasing thesis was built upon two concepts. Firstly, the government usually sell off good assets too cheaply. Secondly, the government can't afford to let private health insurers fail, as this would present a massive challenge to the already stretch public health system.

Continuing to hold in RL no longer fits into my investing style, but I am struggling to hit the sell button. It provides exposure to the health sector and is very likely to exist and be bigger in the future, especially if we continue super high levels of immigration.

Any thoughts good people of Strawland?

Solvetheriddle
4 months ago

@Unlikely i have held MPL in funds I used to run over the years and knew Craig Drummond quite well but have never held it personally. saw it as caught in the middle, with not enough yield or growth. having said that it is the largest in the industry and has a strong position. the industry has its positives one being that it is short tail so can be repriced annually, unlike some general insurance lines. the rationalisation of the industry which should be a positive never really got going, the mutuals are not sellers and boards are self-interested. there is a chance some big foreign guy establishes a position in Australia through MPL at some stage, but that is not a basis for an investing thesis.

another aspect that disturbs me is that i feel their customers have been forced to buy their products as part of the government's stick and carrot (mainly stick) approach to underwriting the industry. that means you are dependent on government policy and although they need private insurers are unlikely to allow excess profits. to me that is an unhealthy dynamic.

so mixed bag for me. you said it no longer fits your investing style, not too sure what that means, I put MPL in the low growth with some yield support so ok but not too exciting. only you can tell if that suits your style. hope that helps.

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reddogaustin
4 months ago

Boring is beautiful.

Someone smart said that. Was it Lynch?

I would offer you need to develop a sell thesis and compare it to your portfolio goals. Confirm if it is, factually and unemotionally, still on-target and on-mission.

People have two reasons for doing things, the stated reason, and the real reason (often internal and unsaid). Like a jedi, contemplate on your desire to sell and seek the real reason.

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