Forum Topics CMP CMP Risks

Pinned straw:

Last edited 10 months ago

Anyone have further details on why BNI pulled the plug on the Compumdeics MEG?

Understand there were issues but did Compumedics get to the root cause?d1a646d4e5285fe1cd7834ad288add62bc4b58.png

Apologies @Wini for crashing the party on another one you are following but need an explanation IMHO.


edgescape
Added 10 months ago

Found the first update on the decommission of MEG at Barrow Neurological Institute. But it seems to raise more questions than answers.

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I understand I am pulling out "skeletons in the closet" which happened more than a year ago.

But as shareholders or interested investors such as myself I think we deserve a bit more transparency.

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Wini
Added 10 months ago

@edgescape Unfortunately I can't add too much colour. The first phase of the Barrow went smoothly, it was installed in 2018 or 2019. The second phase was originally delayed by Covid and then had technical issues but I am not sure exactly what they were. The second phase was the installation of a second helmet I believe to allow for dual scanning and see how different brains react to stimuli in real time.

I never got granular detail on what the technical issues were, but in the lead up to the Tianjin University installation there was commentary how "recent advances" led to that shipment in November last year. Again, general language but management said that the hiring of additional engineering expertise led to "considerable breakthroughs in system performance".

It seems they have worked through the issues that plagued the Barrow installation. It is a shame that their first installation was to a high profile US institution as it didn't give CMP the ability to identify issues and work through them before dealing with a thought leader in the industry. Management did a strategic review after the decision was made to withdraw, but since then have won the additional two orders in China (one to the other arm of Tianjin University so they are clearly happy) and have committed to further sales in Asia and the Middle East so they have clearly decided their product has commercial viability.

Hopefully over time they can come back and attack the US market but I don't blame them for focusing on other geographies until some more time passes after the failed Barrow installation.

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edgescape
Added 10 months ago

@Wini Thanks for the explanation. It would have helped if CMP made it more clearer that they had overcome some of the issues that plagued the BNI deployment.

There does however seem to be others in the market which could make it difficult to regain a foothold in the US market.

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/magnetoencephalography-market-report

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But maybe the pie is big enough seeing this is still early in the market cycle.

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Wini
Added 10 months ago

@edgescape Correct, and I believe Barrow have now engaged MEGIN which is not a good sign for CMP. That said, the longer term view has to be a growing pie given there are only several hundred MEG machines globally, mostly in research hospitals and universities. The longer term view is that as technology and processing power improves the use cases expand and the MEG pie grows substantially. The increased focus on Alzheimer's and other brain drugs and treatments will help also.

But I think CMP management do a good job of keeping MEG, Somfit and Nexus360 separate from the core when they report so you can value the standalone business and make an assessment how much of the "blue sky" is being priced in. As long as that is reasonable, you aren't taking too much risk on further MEG execution.

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edgescape
Added 10 months ago

Totally agree there is little risk here and it is the all the intellectual property, profit guidance versus the small market cap that is attracting me to this.

Took the opportunity to get a small holding on the pullback today. Only small since have some reservations on the management especially regarding communication.

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