Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 31 Jan 2024 15:01:42
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227 GMT - Australia's prudential regulator thinks that its current operational risk-management guidance should be sufficient to help the financial system manage the risks posed by AI, for now. On a media call, APRA chair John Lonsdale says the regulator is telling banks that they need to be "very prudent" about how they employ AI, and emphasizing the need to have the right governance arrangements, monitoring and reporting in place. All of this is already included in APRA's Prudential Standards covering operational risk management, Lonsdale says. "So, at this point in time, we think we've got enough in terms of the regulation to guide through the risks that we're seeing," he says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0114 GMT - Altium's increased monetization of its existing user base and widening of its audience beyond printed-circuit board design secures the Australian tech company a new bull at Citi. Analyst Siraj Ahmed highlights Altium's early success in moving from so-called subscription seats to licensed users on its Altium 365 platform. This represents a large revenue opportunity since there is an average three shared users for each active subscription, he says. ALSO, 38% of Altium 365 users are non printed-circuit board designers, with new app development supporting this growth, he adds. Citi lifts target price 21% to A$56.60 and raises its recommendation to buy from hold. Shares are down 1.9% at A$48.43. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0102 GMT - Siteminder loses its bull at Wilsons on its valuation given shares in the accommodation tech provider more than doubled since June. The broker's analysts tell clients in a note that their medium-term confidence is further buoyed by new product launches but they see limited shareholder returns with the stock at recent highs. They lift their valuation multiple to 6 times their FY 2025 sales forecast, from 5 times, but nonetheless lower their rating to market-weight from overweight. Its target price is lifted 14% to A$5.34. Shares are down 9.3% at A$4.97. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0047 GMT - Megaport's bull at Goldman Sachs notes the possibility that the communications tech provider could upgrade its annual earnings guidance once it formalizes its 1H accounts. Analyst Kane Hannan tells clients that he sees the Australian company's guidance as conservative given the stronger-than-expected performance shown by its preliminary 1H results. He is also encouraged by the additional clarity provided by Megaport's new disclosure on paying customers. GS raises target price 5% to A$13.50 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is down 0.5% at A$12.42. Megaport is scheduled to release its audited 1H results on Feb. 27. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0017 GMT - Audinate loses its bull at Macquarie, where analysts worry about the level of investment required to support revenue growth. They cut their recommendation on the stock to neutral from outperform, telling investors in a note that risks around likely M&A integration and a lack of visibility on medium-term reinvestment levels mean they should wait for a more attractive entry. The analysts anticipate average annual revenue growth of just over 20% over their forecast period, but warn that Audinate has little margin for error. Macquarie sees Audinate's net debt-to-equity ratio jumping to 57.1% in FY 2024, from 26.6% in FY 2023. Target price rises 17% to A$15.80. The stock is down 7.0% at A$16.08. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0002 GMT - Given IGO's decision to mothball its Cosmos nickel mine was always likely, Jefferies wants to know: what took the company so long? IGO today said it's suspending Cosmos following a sharp fall in nickel prices and expects another write-down of up to A$190 million against the asset and another operation, called Forrestania. In a note, analyst Mitch Ryan is puzzled why IGO spent a further A$106 million on capex at Cosmos in 2Q when its suspension was well flagged. "We would expect an update on remaining capex and associated closure costs," he says. IGO is due to report its 1H result on Feb. 22.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2351 GMT - Megaport's reaffirmed annual revenue and earnings guidance looks conservative to Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel, who sees new sales staff and tools improving momentum through the remainder of the FY. Samuel tells clients in a note that it's really positive that 2Q operating expenses only rose by A$2 million on 1Q despite the addition of new staff. He points out that the communications tech provider's 1H Ebitda of A$30.1 million handily beat the average analyst forecast of A$26.3 million, and leaves its FY 2024 guidance of A$51 million-A$57 million looking very attainable. Jefferies raises its target price 2.5% to A$15.75 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is down 1.1% at A$12.34. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2346 GMT - Sonic Healthcare's annual earnings guidance looks a stretch to Macquarie. The bank forecasts Sonic's FY 2024 Ebitda at A$1.673 billion after stripping out the impact of currency swings, putting it below the bottom end of the pathology specialist's A$1.7 billion-A$1.8 billion guidance. Macquarie says its 2H assumptions are more conservative than many others, with its FY 2024 EPS forecast some 11% below consensus estimates. "Despite a favorable balance sheet position (providing potential for further acquisitions), we see earnings risk as skewed to the downside," says Macquarie, which has a neutral call on Sonic's stock. Sonic is due to report its 1H result on Feb. 20. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2343 GMT - Lithium exposure has historically been positive for Macmahon, but may now be a risk to the engineering contractor's outlook, says Jarden. Lithium prices have fallen sharply and miners are starting to curtail production. "We have typically viewed this shift to lithium as a positive diversification of the contractor's commodity mix toward future-facing minerals," analyst James Wilson says in a note. "However, given recent project closures/delays to lithium construction contracts driven by a weak lithium price, we see potential risk to Macmahon's outlook in the sector." He says the stranding of capital equipment is a major downside risk to contract mining businesses. Jarden has a buy call and A$0.24/share price target on Macmahon, which is down 2.8% at A$0.175 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2334 GMT - Atlas Arteria's shares have lagged the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index so far this year, falling nearly 6% as investors worry about the impact of tax changes in France. Jefferies cuts its price target on Atlas Arteria by 5.7% to A$6.42/share to reflect the near-term tax impact, but thinks the stock is trading well below fair value and retains a buy call. "While there remains some uncertainty over the full impact of the French concession tax to distributions, even on the assumption of no compensation, we see the current security price as reflecting too steep a discount," analyst Anthony Moulder says in a note. Traffic growth trends remaining positive and Atlas Arteria is benefiting from a rally in bonds, he adds. Atlas Arteria is down 0.3% at A$5.455 today. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2313 GMT - Base metals miner 29Metals gets a new bear in Jefferies after its latest quarterly production reported stoked new concerns over its cash flow. In a note, analyst Mitch Ryan says 29Metals requires another A$211 million of capital to achieve an estimated net present value of A$0.60/share. But there are several risks that could see it disappoint, including ongoing delays to tailings permits, unforeseen rehabilitation costs at Capricorn Copper, commodity price moves and its bank covenants. "We do not see a reason to own the stock until cash flows turn positive for a sustained period of time," says Jefferies, downgrading the stock to underperform from hold. 29Metals is down 6% at A$0.395/share. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2301 GMT - Following Nickel Industries's revised dividend policy and share buyback, Jefferies turns bullish on the stock. Nickel Industries yesterday unveiled a capital management framework that should see it pay out 30%-60% of free cash flow as dividends. Management said it should lead to a step change in payouts. In a note, analyst Mitch Ryan called a final dividend of 2.5 Australian cents/share and an up to US$100 million share buyback "a surprise" and outside his expectations. "We are attracted to Nickel Industries's diversified production growth position on the cost curve, and ability to maintain Ebitda margins in a compressed nickel market," Jefferies says. "While the deflating nickel market has impacted share price performance, we believe Nickel Industries is undervalued and upgrade to a Buy." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0601 GMT - Netwealth could continue to see reduced outflows if equity market sentiment remains positive and recent initiatives implemented by the Australian investment platform company have the desired effect, Macquarie analysts say in a note. "If flows and market movements continue to beat expectations, Netwealth may hold its current around 46 times price-to-earnings multiple, but in our view, the stock is priced for perfection," says Macquarie. It downgrades Netwealth to underperform from neutral, but raises its target price by 4.2% to A$14.80. The stock was last down 4.4% at A$16.58. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0444 GMT - While most investors expect some repricing of older mortgages by lenders in 2024, Morgan Stanley analysts think that the RBA will need to cut rates three or four times before there's an opportunity for meaningful repricing. MS says in a note that it is unlikely that major banks will take the opportunity to reprice in 2024. It reckons that of the big banks, it'll likely be CBA or NAB that will lead repricing given different business and market-share priorities. "Both these banks have been more inclined to support customers and communities in recent times, reinforcing our view that they will think carefully about the size and timing of re-pricing," says MS. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

0423 GMT - Stronger-for-longer premium rate rises through 2H are likely to support Suncorp's 10%-12% insurance trading ratio target into FY 2025, Jarden analysts Kieren Chidgey and Dan Bounpraseuth say in a note. That is even as ITR margin support from reserve releases could diminish further or disappear into FY 2025. Jarden notes that Suncorp's commentary on underlying ITR suggests it remains on track for strong 2H margin expansion, with the investment bank adding that the view assumes the Australian general insurer is able to sustain reserve releases of 1.0% of net earned premium. Jarden has a buy rating and a target price of A$15.10 on the stock. Suncorp falls 2.2% to A$13.90. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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