Forum Topics HCL HCL Massive 3 month change

Pinned straw:

Added 9 months ago

Wow, how things have changed dramatically in 3 months. The military tech darling will do well to weather this storm.

My straw dollars are basically gone now on HCL, just lucky I didn't have real money riding on the CEO sales pitch!!

Dominator
Added 9 months ago

I had Highcom on a close watch and was quite interested, on the surface everything looked to be heading in the right direction and the company was reasonably priced. I was waiting on the half year results before doing a deeper dive. I feel for investors because the results were unexpected and the opposite of the tone from announcements IMO.

It has reinterated to me the importance of some of my 'investment rules':

  • Wait till results until buying, sometimes it means I pay more (maybe at less risk though?) but also stops surprises like this one.
  • Don't buy while share price is trending is down.
  • Sit and watch a company for a while if you don't need to jump in straight away.


Glad I followed these in this case...

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mikebrisy
Added 9 months ago

@Dominator me too. $HCL was near the top of my small cap watchlist. I wanted to wait and see how the relocation of manufacturing to the US went and see some more results. I saw the inventory build as part of managing through the shutdown, and I still don’t understand what’s happened, as it produces a durable good, so what specifically triggered the audit observation?. (I haven’t read all the straws as I’ve been focused on results of my current holdings). News over the last few days is a complete shock, and I guess my question to those Strawpeople who know it well is, what did I miss?

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UlladullaDave
Added 9 months ago

I saw the inventory build as part of managing through the shutdown, and I still don’t understand what’s happened, as it produces a durable good, so what specifically triggered the audit observation?


My best guess here is that when inventory represents ~60% of the equity value of the company, and gross margins look the way they do (25% GPM in 2H23 etc), the new auditor is going to have a look at it. Those are pretty razor thin margins and self-evidently management have a lot riding on clearing inventory. Perhaps the GPM indicated they were already heavily discounting and the auditors sniffing around carrying values? That might also explain the trading loss excluding the inventory write down. The question at this point is how bad are the inventory problems and whether they can get out of it without a cap raise? Brave soul to be dipping in here even if the SP has been hammered.

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Wini
Added 9 months ago

Based on how the update was written it sounds as though the Board were caught by surprise when they sat down to review the financial accounts. Given they would meet regularly throughout the period, it does make it seem as though the CEO and potentially other execs were hiding how bad things were.

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