Forum Topics AVG - Response To Media Speculation (26 FEB)
neke86_
5 months ago

The market appears to have not responded at all to AVG's 26 February announcement of a potential transaction between them and Accolade Wines. Accolade themselves are struggling according to several AFR articles, so it seems if anything happens it would be a "transformational merger" aka staple two sinking rocks together with private equity capital to see if they float and then try and sell it as a raft.

Does anyone have any ideas, or a potential upside valuation in the event of some corporate action (aside from the boilerplate 30% to 30-day VWAP)?

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UlladullaDave
5 months ago

All the Australian wine growers are struggling because of that China trade ban induced glut. All that money spent on branding and pretty labels on bottles and people sometimes forget that wine is mostly just a commodity product and prone to cobweb cycles. Makes sense to me to just buy a bunch of producers down here on the cheap, cut out some head office OPEX and wait for the cycle to turn. Then spit it back out onto the market. STAM was involved in the Accolade purchase. They love those capital cycle type plays.

I don't really have much of value to add to your specific question though, but at the bottom of the cycle you don't usually see bidding wars.

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