Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 13 Mar 2024 15:12:33
Jimmy
4 months ago

0143 GMT - Liontown Resources shares rise 8.8% to a two-month high of A$1.43 after the miner agreed to a A$550 million debt facility to fund its Kathleen Valley lithium project in Australia. Investment bank Wilsons upgrades the stock to overweight from market weight, saying Liontown has sufficient funds to move the project to positive cash flow in early 2025. "Now that funding has been finalized, another major de-risking hurdle has been cleared on that way to commissioning," analyst Sam Catalano says in a note. With all major mining and construction contracts in place, the risk of a major cost overrun is also swiftly decreasing, Wilsons adds. Its price target on the stock more than doubles to A$1.85 from A$0.85. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0141 GMT - Liontown's new debt package offers "a boost of confidence" for the ailing lithium sector, according to Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon. Liontown has agreed to a A$550 million facility from a syndicate of five lenders. In a note, McCutcheon highlights that the facility is shorter in tenure than the prior A$760 million term sheet and that an additional funding source will likely be needed to repay it by late next year. McCutcheon says she remains positive on Liontown's lithium project, but keeps a sell rating on the stock, which she reckons is overvalued. She points out Liontown has been outperforming peers and expects the lithium market to be oversupplied this year. Citi has a A$1.00 target on the stock, which is up 9.1% at A$1.435/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2336 GMT - Metcash's scale, diversification and growth outlook are not reflected in the supermarket supplier's share price, according to Jarden analysts. They tell clients in a note that the company is valued at about 13 times estimated FY 2024 EPS. Within this, its food business is trading at just 5X FY 2024 Ebit, they say. They point out that this compares with about 17X FY 2024 Ebit for supermarket chains Coles and Woolworths. This fails to acknowledge that Metcash is a top three player across each of its verticals and has a track record of growth, they add. Jarden cuts the stock's target price 2.3% to A$4.20 but keeps an overweight rating. Shares are up 1.8% at A$4.00. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2305 GMT -- -- Ramelius Resources's M&A talks with Karora Resources is an interesting proposition as gold producers on the ASX attract higher multiples as they increase production, says Shaw & Partners. Ramelius last week confirmed discussions are ongoing over valuation, noting Karora had a market value of around $623 million at that time. Karora wholly owns the integrated Beta Hunt and Higginsville operation in Western Australia that will look to produce 200,000 oz of gold annually. "Assuming Ramelius is able to maintain 300,000 oz per annum from its existing assets the addition of Karora's assets could result in Ramelius producing 500,000 oz per annum, only behind Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources on the ASX," analyst Dorab Postmaster says in a note. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2256 GMT - Zip's accelerating U.S. growth and lower-than-feared funding costs help secure the Australian buy-now-pay-later operator a new bull at Citi. Analyst Siraj Ahmed raises his forecasts for the value of purchases on Zip's platform by 1% in FY 2025 and by 7% in FY 2026, primarily on stronger U.S. growth related to wider merchant adoption. He tells clients in a note that funding costs will rise on the renewal of its Australian warehouse facility, the increase will be less significant than previously expected. Citi raises target price 79% to A$1.40 and lifts its recommendation to buy from neutral. Shares are at A$1.28 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2220 GMT - While China's interim determination on removing punitive wine tariffs is not final, Jefferies believes the final outcome in coming weeks is unlikely to be any different. Eliminating the tariffs would be a material positive for Treasury Wine Estates, says analyst Michael Simotas, who rates its stock a buy. Lifting the tariffs should support elevated growth as supply builds up, he says. It also "facilitates pricing power and improves earnings predictability," Simotas says. While this likely won't boost earnings much in FY 2024, "we believe it will be a significant EBITS uplift over time, as availability of luxury and icon wine increases," he says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2212 GMT - Metcash is likely to be gentle in its pivot toward owning food-retail stores or establishing joint ventures, given it risks conflict by competing with existing customers, Jefferies says. Still, in the longer term, there's an opportunity for Metcash to operate a meaningful retail business, leveraging management expertise of existing multi-store operators, analyst Michael Simotas says in a note. "It is unclear how big this could become but the strategy has been proven in Hardware, driving store count and earnings growth," Jefferies says. Its price target lifts 7.5% to A$4.30/share. Metcash ended Tuesday at A$3.93. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2154 GMT - Australian furniture retailer Nick Scali's best opportunity for international expansion could be in the U.K., Wilsons analyst Tom Camilleri tells clients in a note. Camilleri thinks that Nick Scali's successful acquisition and integration of the Plush chain in Australia could offer a playbook. Nick Scali expanded Plush's gross margin and cut A$20 million in costs, and Camilleri reckons that the Australian retailer could aim to do something similar at a small-to-medium sized U.K. chain. He sees lower execution risk around global expansion now that Nick Scali has also strengthened its relationships with Chinese suppliers. Wilsons lifts target price 5.2% to A$16.20 and keeps an overweight rating on the stock. Shares are at A$14.49 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 13, 2024 00:12 ET (04:12 GMT)

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