Forum Topics ASM ASM Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 8 months ago

I have been invested in Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) for longer than I care to remember.

It is very much a speculative play imo.

However, this morning the company announced they have received a Letter of Interest of US$600M from the US Export Import bank EXIM to help them construct their Dubbo Critical Minerals Project. This may be the best news the company has ever released and, in my view, will be the catalyst for more good news (offtakes and funding) in the near term.

Am I over egging the pudding here??

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edgescape
Added 8 months ago

Non-binding agreement

Still some time to go before it is binding including due diligence. Not sure of the timeframe here

Leaky ship yesterday. Up 20% so someone knew before hand.

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Hackofalltrades
Added 8 months ago

Huh. Well that's pretty huge for them. This might explain some of the trips to the USA execs were taking in the last few years. I guess that is the chance of Government support coming in. It makes sense, though I'm surprised to see it coming from the USA.

I wonder how it relates to their Korean investors.

I think the Korean group is still around, so it's possible they could raise any shortfall.

The market cap at 1.44 is $240m according to hot copper, the financing needed is around 1.5bil???.

If this becomes binding and things follow through, you may not be over egging the pudding.

Questions I have

  • Does this mean the mine would be bound to sell to the USA, rather than Korea as well?
  • Why did the price go up by ~40% in the previous two days? How did others know about this - it seems like the media had access to information before investors: https://www.australianmining.com.au/dubbo-rare-earths-gets-1b-boost/
  • Are the Koreans still involved in trying to be a partner in financing this mine? Are they able to contribute finance at all?
  • Why is the Korean metals plan unable to sell their product? What is China selling it for and what are they trying to sell it for? How long will it lose money for?
  • How will they finance the rest? I think the total cost is something like 1.5 billion? They are at and the market cap is like.
  • How profitable is the project going to be given the long lead time and okay but not amazing figures on the mine.
  • How are the many risks from a complicated project like this going to affect things?

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Hackofalltrades
Added 7 months ago

This was a few weeks ago, but is also positive.


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The share price is down substantially from a month ago, I think to do with the cap raise.

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