https://www.npr.org/2025/03/16/nx-s1-5327095/copper-rare-earth-minerals-mining-electronics
An interesting overview, but the themes are familiar. The back end of the article talks about the problems developing copper resources within the USA, and the especially tight refining capacity that exists within the USA currently. There are emerging indications now that Trump will move on copper tariffs before any review is finished. Disruption, and tariff impacts serve as propellant for increased copper prices. Bringing on capacity within the USA, especially if they introduce tariffs on copper, will take some years.
The link to the order (below) the Trump administration has generated to look at copper and the current status of the US with regard to import access, local production and refining. It's a continuation of the process of countries looking at the demonstrated opportunity for China to control supply chain and restrict the ability of nations to access materials they need. The scope of the investigation is interesting and demonstrates the seriousness of the US in ensuring supply chains they rely on. Whilst it seems likely it will strengthen the opportunity for the US to ramp up domestic production it takes 15 years or so to get a mine to production, perhaps in current conditions shortened a bit by the removal of environmental and similar barriers to entry under the Trump administration. Still, not something that will happen anytime soon. More likely the US will reinforce supply chain through relationships with companies and friendly allies eg Canada, Australia and to a lesser degree Chile and Peru and similar. This diversifies supply and improves the US risk management environment in the meantime. The refining of raw materials is probably something they can move on more quickly. Interestingly of course it reinforces the hand of these supplier nations in any trade negotiations.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/addressing-the-threat-to-nationalsecurity-from-imports-of-copper/
An article on the ABC today by Michael Janda suggests house prices in China are continuing to decrease, that recent attempts by the Chinese government are failing to make any impact on this. The graph below tells the story. Perhaps drawing an imaginative conclusion it seems like successive negative price dips have been getting bigger since 2012 - engineers might see that the signal hunting has amplified since then.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-07/china-property-crash-a-warning-for-australian-housing-market/104788660
In 2024 the US increased tariffs on EV cars from China from 25% to 100% mid year in an act of protectionism it appears rather than to combat subsidies. The EU applied tariffs between 17% and 36% to mitigate subsidies they calculated were being provided to Chinese manufacturers. Interestingly the EU also applied tariff's to Tesla imports, to the tune of 7.8%. Brazil the biggest LATAM market is removing an EV import tariff advantage, ramping up tariffs from zero to 35% by 2026, matching the 35% tariff currently applied on ICE vehicles. I'm not sure what the signing of the very recent Mercosur/EU trade agreement does to this arrangement. Chinese exports are growing for their EV but at a slower than forecast pace, whilst the domestic market is booming.
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/10/30/european-tariffs-on-chinese-electric-vehicles-all-you-need-to-know
China is investing around $800Bn USD equivalent in modernising and expanding its electricity grid network, with 85% of that money going into distribution - poles and wires.
https://www.ft.com/content/2c0fa0d1-2902-440e-8677-d9f087c2e943
In summary, copper consumption by the worlds biggest consumer is up for electricity grid development, growing but slower for EV manufacture and shrinking for the construction sectors.
Given the projected possible tariff wars on 2025 none of these sectors may be affected except by domestic considerations and decisions perhaps.
I would welcome your thoughts dear brains trust.
Disclosure - 29M and Sandfire in SM, 29M and Hudbay Minerals in RL
Interesting to see what is occurring at the smelter level of the supply chain in China. China is the worlds largest importer/consumer of copper, accounting for around 60% or so.
A large group of copper smelters in China, who import ore and extract/concentrate the copper, have agreed a 68% drop in concentrate processing costs per tonne for 2025, over last year. At face value (the article suggests this) you might think this indicates a competitive oversupply of ore. However, smelting capacity in China has grown enormously over the last 2 or 3 years, whilst the supply side hasn't changed much. Juaing, a Chinese smelter company, has/is adding 600,000 tonnes capacity for 2025 in two new plants.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/122624-chinas-top-smelters-cut-q1-floor-price-for-copper-amid-supply-strain
Adding to this the Chinese government is reducing tariffs on high quality recycled copper imports saying they are encouraging improved low carbon outcomes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-cut-import-tariffs-some-recycled-copper-aluminium-raw-materials-2024-12-28/
Essentially it looks like a clearing out of older dirtier processors with higher costs from the industry, concentrating processing through a smaller group of larger Chinese companies. The Chinese are at least forward looking.
India is also building up its smelting capacity - China may have a decent competitor reasonably soon.