0448 GMT - Mesoblast keeps its speculative buy rating from Bell Potter despite its recent share-price surge, with analyst John Hester flagging the potential for meaningful revenue generation in fiscal 2025. Hester writes in a note to clients that the U.S. FDA has reinvigorated the approval process for pediatric use of Mesoblast's Remestemcel-L steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease treatment. Shares in the regenerative-medicine developer have almost trebled in value in 2024, but Hester estimates FDA approval in mid-August and sees more upside. He lifts his fiscal 2025 revenue forecast to US$41.6 million, from US$7.6 million. Target price rises to A$1.40 from A$0.58. Shares are up 4.05% at A$0.90. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0426 GMT - The sustainability of Kogan.com's membership subscription is unclear to Citi analyst James Wang, who would like more clarity about customers' renewal rates. Wang writes in a note that he sees negative customer reviews for the membership and complaints about its pricing. Yet he concedes that Kogan.com likely has habitual customers, in line with most online marketplaces. March-quarter web traffic to Kogan.com was down 19% on year, adds Wang, who has a sell rating on the stock. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0336 GMT - Boss Energy's effort to restart the Honeymoon mine in Australia carries more risk than Paladin Energy's move to resume production at the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, Morgan Stanley says. That contributes to Morgan Stanley starting Boss Energy at equal-weight, rather than being bullish on the stock. In a note, analyst Shannon J. Sinha says Honeymoon is a lower-cost in-situ-recovery mine than Langer Heinrich. Still, "we see risks to Boss Energy's 2021 Feasibility Study cost savings being realized, especially in an inflationary environment," Morgan Stanley says. Boss Energy is down 3.2% at A$4.87 today, which is above Morgan Stanley's maiden A$4.60/share price target. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0330 GMT - Paladin Energy gets a new bull in Morgan Stanley, which likes its ability to lean into a potential rise in global nuclear power generation. Paladin's key growth project is Michelin in Canada. In a note, analyst Shannon J. Sinha says Michelin, combined with mining resuming at the Langer Heinrich operation in Namibia, can make Paladin a sizeable uranium miner compared with international peers. Morgan Stanley also highlights that 50% of sales are already under contract for 2025 from Langer Heinrich, which helps lower risks around the restart of the mine. The bank starts Paladin at overweight with a A$1.75/share price target. Paladin is up 6.3% at A$1.51. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0322 GMT - If Australian 10-year bond yields were to decline then investors would want to be positioned in Charter Hall or Dexus, Morgan Stanley says. That's because history suggests their price-to-earnings multiples generally expand through these times. "Of the two, Charter Hall is our preferred exposure from a fundamental perspective," analyst Simon Chan says. "It is known as a property fund manager, with immediate positive impact on earnings upon upward asset valuations (or yield compression)." On the other hand, Dexus's operational cash earnings could remain flat even if asset valuations trend upwards, as its earnings are more driven by passive rental income, MS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0203 GMT - The recent share-price strength of the Australian bank sector looks unjustified by its fundamentals, says Morgans analyst Nathan Lead. This prompts the broker's underweight view of the sector. Among the majors, Morgans's order of preference based on potential returns is ANZ, Westpac, NAB and Commonwealth Bank, although Morgans notes that its views on business quality are broadly the reverse of this order. The broker also revises down its forward interest rate assumptions, noting lower interest rates are a headwind for net interest margins because of lower earnings on capital and deposits. Morgans cuts Bank of Queensland to reduce from hold. CBA stays at reduce, while ANZ, NAB and Westpac stay as hold. Judo remains on add. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0149 GMT - Suncorp's sale of its New Zealand life insurance business to Resolution Life for NZ$410 million looks like a reasonable deal, says Morgans analyst Richard Coles in a note. He reckons analyzing the sale is complicated by the recent change in life insurance accounting standards and its impact on earnings. "Broadly we think the sale price on a price-to-book multiple basis (around two times) appears reasonable," says Morgans. The broker remains supportive of Suncorp's continued simplification of its business and raises its target price 2.5% to A17.30 citing the impact of the life insurance business sale. Suncorp rises 1.0% to A$16.42.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0125 GMT - Magellan's outflows continued to moderate during 3Q FY 2024 but investment performance remains mixed, say Macquarie analysts in a note. For 4Q the investment bank forecasts A$0.6 billion of retail outflows, with institutional outflows flat. For 3Q, retail outflows were A$0.5 billion. On performance, Macquarie says relative investment performance has been less volatile in recent periods, but the Global and Infrastructure funds remain below benchmarks. "Magellan needs to deliver sustained periods of relative outperformance to improve its three- and five-year numbers to win over consultants, investors and advisers," Macquarie says. It raises the stock's target price by 5% to A$8.40. Magellan is up 1.1% at A$9.59. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0110 GMT - GQG's recent performance has been exceptional, say Macquarie analysts in a note. They call out the impact of market movements in 1Q FY 2024 which provided a material tailwind, with its large overweight positions in technology and communication services. Macquarie notes that the fund manager's four strategies are all ahead on a one-year basis by 2,000-3,250 bps and on a three-year basis by around 600-900 bps. Macquarie keeps its outperform call and raises GQG's target price 17% to A$2.80. "Strong investment performance and recent investment in distribution should continue to support net flows," says the investment bank. GQG rises 9.0% to A$2.50. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0109 GMT - Beach Energy shares are 18% lower at A$1.55 after the company said the Waitsia Stage 2 natural-gas project in Western Australia would cost more to complete and first production would be delayed. RBC Capital Markets suggests the company may be putting out a worst-case scenario after repeated setbacks. In a note, analyst Gordon Ramsay highlights that Beach's contractor is claiming that it is currently eight weeks behind schedule. "This compares to Beach's new guidance of a six-month delay," RBC says. "We see this highlighting potential to deliver first gas ahead of the new project schedule." Beach said today that first gas from Waitsia Stage 2 is now likely in early 2025, later than the mid-2024 schedule outlined before. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0059 GMT - Equities trading volumes for the ASX remain compressed in 3Q FY 2024, say Macquarie analysts in a note. Capital markets activity, as has been well-flagged, was also none existent in 3Q, but interest income should stabilize into the futures cash rates peak. Macquarie cuts its FY 2204 estimates by 2.3% reflecting weaker IPO and secondary raisings activity, but keeps its price target steady at A$63.00. ASX is flat at A$64.13. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0052 GMT - Deposits remain the key differentiator of profitability at Australian banks, say Macquarie analysts in a note. The investment bank's analysis suggests portfolio differences go well beyond the product mix, with more transaction accounts leading to higher returns, as well as pricing. For example, Australia's largest lender Commonwealth Bank has retail saving deposits more skewed to the online saver category, while peers have more bonus saver accounts, Macquarie says. "We estimate that the difference in CBA's deposit mix compared to peers contributes around A$1.7billion to CBA's bottom line or around 2% to its return on equity." Macquarie continues to see a challenging outlook for bank sector earnings with limited upside risk in FY 2024.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2322 GMT - Macquarie's last two May results have disappointed Citi, which thinks it may happen again at the bank's upcoming FY result. In a note, analysts Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong highlight consensus expectations for a strong rebound in Macquarie Asset Management's deal-related revenues. However, Citi has doubts about this rebound from both a timing perspective and from adverse conditions in green energy asset valuations. The investment bank also thinks benefits from lower interest rates may take some time to come through. Citi downgrades the stock from to sell, from neutral, citing a risk that FY 2025 guidance could disappoint. This may have ramifications for consensus expectations for around 20% growth factored into FY 2025 and around 10% in FY 2026, Citi adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2305 GMT - Fund flows may moderate for asset manager GQG, but Goldman Sachs still sees a promising pipeline. In a note, analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim say GQG's funds under management at the end of March suggests strong growth since December, but this was largely driven by the performance of markets. At the same time, GS notes GQG flagged some seasonality in fund flows at the start of the year, possibly seeing some softening. Still, GS upgrades its earning view to reflect GQG's March FUM position and raises its target price by 14% to A$2.73/share. GQG ended last week at A$2.29. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

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2244 GMT - Magellan's funds under management at the end of March were ahead of Goldman Sachs' forecasts, but this was largely as a result of market performance. Investment flows were broadly in line with expectations, analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim say in a note. For January and February, GS says flows generally tracked better, but March saw an increase in institutional outflows at A$500 million for the month. GS keeps its recommendation at neutral. It raises its target price by 4% to A$9.10/share, mainly due to GS upgrading earnings to reflect Magellan's March FUM. The stock ended last week at A$9.49. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires