0053 GMT - Pilbara Minerals is likely to be free cash-flow positive again in FY 2025, reckons Bell Potter analyst James Williamson. That view reflects improved sentiment toward the lithium market and operational improvements made by Pilbara Minerals that should lead to increased production volumes, Bell Potter says. Pilbara Minerals' cash fell by A$362 million in 3Q, bringing its cash balance down to A$1.8 billion. As a result, Pilbara Minerals is unlikely to declare a final dividend for FY 2024. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0047 GMT - Costume jewelry retailer Lovisa's stock may look expensive, but it appeals to Jefferies analyst John Campbell. Lovisa is trading on a multiple of 27 times FY 2025 earnings, above global consumer peers at 25 times, Jefferies says. But the company is embarking on rapid growth, adding new stores at a compound annual rate of 18% to build a 1,500-store network by 2027. That means it should trade at a premium, Jefferies says. Its small retail footprint also drives high sales when measured per square meter. "We've struggled to find a global retailer with a better business model and stronger rollout on these multiples," Jefferies says. It starts Lovisa at buy with a A$39.00/share price target. Lovisa is up 2.9% at A$30.21. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0035 GMT - Pilbara Minerals' net cash has almost halved over the past six months, making a final dividend this fiscal year increasingly unlikely, Goldman Sachs says. The bank had previously forecast a A$0.02/share payout. In a note, analyst Hugo Nicolaci highlights Pilbara Minerals' capital spending, headwinds from realized lithium pricing, and its earlier decision to defer non-essential spending and not pay a 1H dividend to preserve a balance-sheet advantage. GS expects the company to resume dividend payments at its 1H FY 2025 result in February. "We note that on our numbers, both before/after including a Beyond P1000 expansion, net cash troughs at A$800 million-A$900 million (before likely longer dated downstream capex)," GS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2348 GMT - Karoon Energy is demonstrating itself to be accident-prone, after lowering expectations for output from the Who Dat field in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Citi says. It says the downgrade is a bitter pill for investors to swallow so soon after Karoon raised more equity than it needed for the acquisition. In a note, analyst James Byrne says the Who Dat issues are a deferral of production, rather than an impairment of reserves. "The discounted cash flow impact of the deferral, under our conservative assumptions, is small so the equity looks cheap," he says. "Regardless, it's the impact to investor trust that is more troublesome as management are already considering the next deal." Citi retains a buy call on Karoon's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2328 GMT - An Australian bank rally over the past six months is difficult to justify, Citi analysts Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong say in a note. Citi reckons easing financial conditions have driven the rally, but credit, inflation and employment data are now inconsistent with an environment where interest rates are likely headed down. Citi says the banks are trading on around a 1.7 times book, with falling returns. It downgrades ANZ and Westpac to sell, from neutral. After moving to a negative call on the sector in January, it now has seven sells across the banks. "Having a sell on the banks is an increasingly consensus call," says Citi. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2324 GMT - Westpac is Citi's most preferred Australian major bank, which thinks that the risks around the lender's technology and costs are broadly understood. In a note, analysts Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong add that capital management offers support to the stock. Citi now has sell calls on all of Australia's big banks. Still, its order of preference is Westpac, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and NAB. It highlights that NAB, with a new CEO, faces the prospect of slowing business growth and decisions over how to invest capital. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2220 GMT - Jefferies is heartened by media reports that Whitehaven Coal's process to sell a 20-30% stake in its recently acquired Blackwater metallurgical coal mine in Queensland is competitive. In a note, analyst Daniel Roden highlights an Australian Financial Review report that there are three potential bidders for the stake, and that a transaction is likely to complete by the end of 2024. "While we do not include this in our valuation, a successful sale for a competitive price would be viewed positively for its ability to de-lever the balance sheet," says Jefferies, noting Whitehaven's net debt totals A$1.4 billion. It values Blackwater at A$5.9 billion. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2214 GMT - Gold Road Resources is well placed to fund a large component of any potential acquisition, says Jefferies. Gold Road this month confirmed it's in talks to buy a stake in Greenstone Gold Mines in Canada, owned by Equinox Gold and Orion Mine Finance. In a note, analyst Mitch Ryan highlights that Gold Road has A$146 million of net cash, an undrawn A$150 million debt facility, and listed investments with a market value of A$470 million. Jefferies retains a buy call on the stock, despite recent production downgrades driven by wet weather. Gold Road's share price appears to be pricing in its M&A ambitions "which we believe is creating a material disount to the long-term value of the stock," Jefferies says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2207 GMT - It's been a bruising period for lithium stocks, but Jefferies is confident in its buy call on Pilbara Minerals. "The current environment of improved quarter-on-quarter lithium prices coupled with production growth, as P680 adds capacity, and the company's robust balance sheet positions the share price to outperform the lithium sector," analyst Mitch Ryan says in a note. Jefferies views provisional pricing as likely to have a positive impact on cash flow in 4Q, predicting Pilbara Minerals will have net cash of A$1.8 billion at end-June. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires