0338 GMT - CAR Group is Jefferies' pick among Australian classifieds stocks despite market concerns that the vehicle advertiser's growth metrics could suffer from comparison with a strong year-earlier period, Jefferies analysts write in a note. They say total April listings on the Carsales platform are up 16% on year, with yield likely to be supported by a postcode-based pricing model for private sellers and increased depth among dealers. They also point out that new recreational-vehicle shipments in the U.S. were up 9% on year in the March quarter, which should lead to more listings on CAR's Trader Interactive platform. They add that CAR's earnings multiple is broadly in line with those of property advertiser Domain and jobs advertiser Seek, neither of which have the potential upside of CAR's international strategy. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0142 GMT - ResMed's 3Q margin gains look like being one-offs to Morgans analyst Derek Jellinek, who points to management expectations for a more gradual improvement into 2025. Jellinek tells clients in a note that the breathing-tech provider's 3Q margins were stronger than he had anticipated, driven by strong inventory management, manufacturing efficiencies, and general cost management. Yet the impact of Red Sea shipping disruptions and marketing investment look like near-term headwinds to Jellinek, who also points out that the timing of further efficiencies and cost improvements from product rollouts remain uncertain. Morgans raises target price 3.9% to A$34.11 and keeps an add rating on the stock, which is up 2.9% at A$32.40. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0129 GMT - PointsBet's strong 3Q leaves the betting tech provider on course to hit the lower end of its annual earnings guidance, Bell Potter analyst Chris Savage tells clients in a note. Savage raises his FY 2024 revenue forecast by about 1% and cuts his operating expense forecast by about 2% after the Australia-listed company reported a 3Q total net win of A$70.6 million, up 24% on a year earlier. Savage now expects a normalized Ebitda loss of A$9.9 million, which compares with PointsBet's guidance for an Ebitda loss of between A$9 million and A$14 million. Target falls 5.6% to A$1.02 on a lower-than-expected capital return, but Bell Potter keeps a buy rating on the stock. Shares are down 1.8% at A$0.825. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0049 GMT - Megaport's soft 3Q customer numbers could suggest a degree of churn, according to Citi analyst Siraj Ahmed. The Australian communication tech provider's net addition of 12 customers in the March quarter was well short of the 50 expected by Ahmed, and lagged even the 39 added across the previous three months. A total of 681 net service additions compared with Ahmed's forecast of 815, primarily due to port additions being almost 60% weaker than he had expected. Nonetheless, Ahmed tells clients that free cash flow was stronger than he had anticipated, and he thinks that Megaport's upgraded guidance will still prove to be conservative given currency moves. Citi has a buy rating and A$16.80 target price on the stock, which is up 0.7% at A$3.585. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0047 GMT - Stockland has eased concerns around its annual targets with positive news of momentum in its residential property business, Citi says. In its 3Q update, Stockland tightened its FY24 residential volume guidance range to 5,300-5,500 lots, from 5,200-5,600. Analyst Suraj Nebhani, in a note, says this provides "further comfort around the settlement target and hopefully providing confidence to some investors who doubted this heading into the update today." Stockland sold 1,242 lots in 3Q, up 5% on 2Q, and also talked up strong enquiry levels. Stockland is up 0.9% at A$4.37. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0010 GMT - Company selection looks to have been a key defining factor for Australian fund managers' performance in 1Q 2024, according the most recent Mercer Investment Survey. Most active managers outperformed the index in the March quarter, with the median manager delivering gross returns of 6% versus the S&P/ASX 300 at 5.4%. "There was no clear style leadership when looking at the top performing managers in the quarter. This suggests external factors such as interest rate expectations or inflation worris were less influential on relative performance than company selection," says Shannon Reilly, head of equities, Pacific at Mercer. Still, over the one year to end-March, Australian equity active manager outcomes have been weaker, with about 47% of managers in the Mercer universe underperforming the index. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0006 GMT - The strength of ResMed's 3Q gross margin was the biggest positive surprise for Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman. The breathing-tech provider's gross margin was about 90 basis points stronger than Laaman had forecast, driven by pricing, manufacturing efficiencies, stable component costs, and lower freight costs. Less positively, Laaman points out that ResMed anticipates a margin headwind of 30-40 basis points in 4Q due to shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. Morgan Stanley raises the stock's target price 6.0% to A$33.70 and stays overweight. Shares were at A$31.50 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2337 GMT - Asset quality is likely to be a key theme of the coming bank reporting season, say Citi analysts Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong in a note. "Compositionally, we expect asset quality to prove better than consensus, offsetting our slightly softer revenue expectations," says the investment bank. With very strong collective provisions, Citi wonders where lenders will be able to justify the economic forecasts that sit behind the provisions. Westpac is still Citi's preferred exposure amongst the Australian banks. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2329 GMT - Jefferies notes U.S. regulators recently flagged there's been a patent challenge to Injectafer, a treatment for iron deficiency anemia produced by CSL's Vifor unit, meaning a competitor is likely looking at selling a generic version of the drug. Jefferies says it believes at least one company, Viatris, is likely to launch a generic version of the drug in the U.S. in 2025, and that in time, there may be other new generic entrants. Jefferies says a generic version of the treatment is already being sold in Europe, and that its forecasts already reflect a generic version of the drug in the U.S. in 2025. Jefferies estimates that Injectafer will account for some 3% of CSL group revenue in fiscal year 2025. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2324 GMT - Charter Hall has been rather light in revaluing its assets relative to peers, and that could bite it in the June quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. Its Charter Hall Prime Office Fund only revalued some 34% of its assets in March, says MS, citing data from MSCI/Mercer. That compares to 95-100% of wholesale office funds managed by peers. "This manifested in devaluation (net capital return) of -0.5% at CPOF, versus average of -5% across other unlisted wholesale office funds," analyst Simon Chan says in a note. "As such, there is a chance that Charter Hall will endure more punitive devaluation in the June quarter." Elsewhere, Charter Hall Prime Industrial Fund has revalued only 50% of assets.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2309 GMT - Regis Resources endured a difficult 3Q, but its improved cash position shows a decision to stop hedging gold prices was the right one, Bell Potter says. Regis added some A$31 million of cash in 3Q, equal to around A$342/oz. "This is a big improvement and, together with the rise in the gold price since closure of the hedge book (when spot A$ gold was A$3,050/oz), vindicates Regis's decision to close it," analyst David Coates says in a note. Regis needs to produce 105,000 oz of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,350/oz or better to meet the low end of production and high end of cost guidance, Bell Potter estimates. "This looks achievable, as both September and December quarters achieved better than this," the bank says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2253 GMT - Jefferies says Aristocrat's recent acquisition of NeoGames will give it the technological capability to compete in the online gambling space--though it's unclear whether the investment in the sector will ultimately pay off. Jefferies says significant earnings contribution is required to justify the A$2.4 billion of online gambling investment so far, with a previous analysis suggesting that Aristocrat needs to deliver Ebitda growth 15% above consensus to meet its targets. Aristocrat's profit growth is "dependent on execution in iGaming, and the economics look challenged based on the level of investment made to date," Jefferies says. Aristocrat announced Friday that the NeoGames deal was complete. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2235 GMT - A brighter outlook for investment income leads Jefferies to lift its earnings per share forecasts for Australian general insurers in FY 2025 and FY 2026. Uncertainty over the timing of U.S. interest rate cuts means bond yields are likely to stay higher for longer, analysts Simon Fitzgerald and William Richardson say in a note. "Increases in bond yields, particularly since March 2024 are likely to have improved running yields for the GIs," it adds. Jefferies sees insurers should also benefit as recent premium rate hikes start to earn-through, and maintains a positive view on the sector. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2204 GMT - Key to the shorter-term outlook for Amcor's share price will be whether the packaging company has begun to see volumes improve, given lingering market pressures in key areas, says Jefferies. Amcor called the low point in the volume cycle at its 2Q result, but analyst Richard Johnson says growth is likely to remain negative in 2H. "One of the primary challenges the group still faces is the need to establish new growth platforms to support future EPS growth," he says. "Without this, the share price may well still struggle medium-term, given the background of limited M&A and stagnant capex." Jefferies forecasts 9-months adjusted Ebit of $1.096 billion, down 6.5% on year, and EPS of 48.5 U.S. cents. This implies 3Q EPS of 16.7 cents, down 4.8%. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires