Bapcor Limited

ASX:BAP

Bapcor Limited

ASX:BAP
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$4.60 (+1.8%)
Last close price
#433
Rank
2
Held by
29
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Reports (9) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics BAP BAP Trading update

Pinned straw:
Jimmy
Added 8 months ago

Although I doubt the pending announcement will be positive...and I wish those currently holding all the best...it may just present a trading opportunity should the market...as it tends to do...overreact and significantly sells this down to what maybe considered to be "way oversold levels".

Pursuant to ASX Listing Rule 17.1, Bapcor Limited (ACN 153 199 912) (Bapcor) requests the immediate implementation of a trading halt in its ordinary shares (ASX Code: BAP).

Bapcor provides the following information for the purposes of ASX Listing Rule 17.1.

(a) The trading halt is requested pending the release of a trading update by Bapcor.

(b) Bapcor requests that the trading halt remain in place until the earlier of:

(i) Bapcor making an announcement to the market regarding the trading update; and

(ii) the commencement of trading on Thursday, 2 May 2024.  
Parko5
Added 8 months ago

I’m on my honeymoon. So I will have to be quick. But this is a Massive sell down.

business is going through a bunch of structural changes. But when they have all the warehousing built and the systems working it will a much more efficient business.

they can’t seem to find a CEO. And many changes at board level.

also experiencing the post Covid pull back.

and affected by consumer spend dropping.


so what price seems reasonable?

7
Jimmy
Added 8 months ago

@Parko5 the following is comment by Citi this morning. It's probably not as detailed as one would like but at least it's something that may help you to decide.

Personally I'd be holding off primarily because of the issue surrounding a CEO appointment and the fact that the...what was to be...the new CEO resigned before he started...not a good look imo.

  • COMMENTARY:
  • Bapcor has issued a profit warning, now expecting FY24 net profit in between $93m and $97m versus market consensus sitting at $115.6m reports Citi.
  • The broker highlights today's warning follows on from two prior downgrades issued in October last year and in January.
  • Citi is worried given the new CEO has already given up on his job (before starting) and there's potential for further management departures.
  • The broker continues to see downside risks to FY25 forecasts. Neutral. Target $6.34.
  • FORECAST
  • Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 34.60 cents.
  • Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.20 cents and EPS of 42.50 cents.


7
mikebrisy
Added 8 months ago

@Parko5 ... too much information!

I don't have an up to date view on $BAP, as I stopped following them closely about 9 months ago.

However, I've put some quick peer comparisons below. (I know $IPG isn't a sector peer, but it is a distributor I've recently initiated a position in, so it was in my table)

So, $4.40 looks overdone. $BAP isn't as high quality as $SNL, but from a margin perspective its stronger than $MXI and more material with better earnings stability.

So, I guess the issue is the long term outlook. $BAP has historically traded on an average P/E around 20 or so over the last 5 years, and higher in is high growth phase under Daryl.

However, its EPS growth has fallen off from historical levels. The CEO non-starter (as opposed to a new starter) and trading update are a quick double-blow.

So, as ever, it comes down to your view of the future: if you think they can get back to a reasonable even if not stellar growth trajectory, then 11.2 is cheap. But if you think they are structurally impaired in a competitive industry, then pick a number.

I don't have my own view on this.

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9
edgescape
Added 8 months ago

Noticed MXI got a bit of attention today. Preying on the misfortunes of BAP?

7