Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 03 May 2024 15:03:08
Jimmy
3 months ago

0428 GMT - Some financial advisers using Iress's Xplan software are unhappy at the scale of the Australian tech provider's latest price rises, Macquarie analysts say. They tell clients in a note that they have received negative industry feedback on the 5-6% price rises that Iress imposed across much of its Australian business earlier in 2024. They point out that 2023's 9% price rise didn't stick across Xplan, with many customers reducing their usage to manage costs. Macquarie lifts the stock's target price 3.5% to A$8.85 on Iress's modest Ebitda guidance upgrade and stays neutral on the stock. Shares are down 0.1% at A$8.53. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0253 GMT - Xero's success in developing partner channels in Australia should mitigate the risk that its price rises will increase customer churn rates, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They point out that Australia's regulatory and compliance environment means that about 70% of the cloud-accounting provider's business in the country comes through accountants and bookkeepers, who make the purchasing decision. They then pass on the cost to their customers. Macquarie lifts the stock's target price 1.3% to A$154.60 and keeps its outperform rating. Shares are up 1.9% at A$126.03. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0228 GMT - NAB's pre-provision earnings are on track to decline around 5% in FY 2024, say Macquarie analysts in a note, following the Australian lender's 1H FY 2024 results. "While lending pressures are moderating, we expect deposit-led margin headwinds to persist," Macquarie says, noting that NAB's pro-forma CET1 is below that of peers, leaving a smaller buffer for potential credit quality deterioration or stronger balance sheet growth. "We were surprised with the size of the announced buyback, given NAB's pro-forma level 1 CET1 ratio is now below 11.5%," says Macquarie. It reckons that if credit quality deteriorates or credit growth surprises to the upside, NAB may face capital challenges in FY 2026 and beyond.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0223 GMT - NAB's small-to-medium enterprise exposure remains attractive, say Goldman Sachs analysts Andrew Lyons and John Li in a note analyzing the lender's 1H FY 2024 result. While NAB is overweight SME lending, which is inherently riskier than housing, asset quality remains strong with management highlighting credit losses appear to be deviating versus history, for the better, they note. The bank is well provisioned, and sees more capacity for loan growth in the commercial sector versus the household sector which should benefit NAB's business mix, GS reckons. At the same time, NAB looks to be managing costs effectively, which leaves it well positioned for an environment of elevated inflationary pressure, GS adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0216 GMT - NAB's 1H FY 2024 results were largely in line with expectations and seemed to reassure the market, but Citi maintains its sell call, as the Australian lender's profit mix has skewed higher toward business and corporate banking. This will leave it disproportionately affected by slowing business credit, relative to peers, Citi analysts Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong say in a note.Citi also expects NAB's costs to likely rise.While investment spending is guided to remain around A$1.4 billion, other cost buckets, like technology, may increase, Citi says.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0215 GMT - Platypus Asset Management portfolio manager Stephen Butel says he wouldn't support BHP, in which Platypus holds stock, seeking to buy Anglo American without it first spinning off its South Africa-listed businesses. "South32 was BHP divesting away from South Africa," he tells WSJ. "This is just South33." Anglo rejected as complex and too cheap a BHP takeover proposal that would have been contingent upon it spinning off the South Africa shareholdings. According to Butel: "Ideal scenario is probably the deal doesn't go ahead." He reckons the way Anglo was priced in BHP's rebuffed proposal was fair, but says Platypus also worries about the time it would take to integrate the assets. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0154 GMT - Financial adviser frustration with Insignia may provide an opening for competitors, says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway in a note. It is the investment bank's understanding that some advisers are unhappy about being moved onto Insignia's platforms, so there is a chance they may transition to competitors in 4Q or later. "At least one of Insignia's competitors suggests it has captured large flows from Insignia," says Citi, noting that Insignia adviser numbers are still falling. Citi keeps its sell call on the stock, believing it may be premature to think that the outflows will slow in the shorter term. It cuts the target price 6.4% to A$2.20. Insignia falls 2.5% to A$2.36. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0136 GMT - Prasad Patkar, head of investments at Platypus Asset Management, is wary about BHP's plans to gobble up longtime rival Anglo American. "We are concerned about the deal in its current form," he tells WSJ. There are a number of past examples of mining megadeals gone wrong, says Patkar. "Billions of dollars have been lost," he says. "That's why our default position on such transactions is negative from an acquirer's perspective." Platypus holds BHP stock. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0125 GMT - BHP's tilt at Anglo American makes some sense given its rival's stock performance in recent times, but the world's top miner should avoid becoming embroiled in a bidding war, says Angus Gluskie, managing director of White Funds Management, which holds BHP stock. "We don't want to see them get sucked into a drawn-out battle where they get drawn up in price too adversely," he tells WSJ. While a takeover of the diversified mining giant could be a somewhat messy way to add more copper to BHP's books, "there are a limited number of copper assets around," says Gluskie. "There haven't been major discoveries for many years, so it is a limited market in that sense." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0113 GMT - Bapcor's poor execution and management uncertainty keep Citi analyst Sam Teeger neutral on the stock despite what he sees as several growth opportunities and the potential for a re-rate. Teeger writes in a note to clients that, with the Australia-listed automotive-accessories supplier still looking for a permanent CEO, there is too much unpredictability around strategic direction for him to feel comfortable recommending investors buy the stock. Uncertainty over Bapcor's FY 2025 earnings prompt him to increase the discounts applied to his price-to-earnings and sum-of-the-parts valuations. Target price falls 26% to A$4.70 and Citi stays neutral on the stock, which is down 2.3% at A$4.30. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0101 GMT - Bapcor's valuation discount relative to U.S. peers in automotive-accessory supply is but justified given uncertainty over the Australia-listed company's earnings, UBS analyst Tim Piper says. He tells clients in a note that the stock is trading at about 16X earnings, compared with 22X and 18X earnings for O'Reilly and AutoZone. A premium is justified given the challenge of turning around Bapcor's performance, he says. Piper adds that the stock's current multiple implies that the market sees the current fiscal half as the low point for earnings, a conclusion that looks far from certain to Piper. UBS cuts target price 22% to A$4.70 and keeps a neutral rating on the stock, which is down 2.3% at A$4.30. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0056 GMT - While Macquarie's FY 2024 results were overall in line, its the FY 2025 outlook raises concerns for Citi analysts. In a note, Citi says it sees soft guidance for Macquarie Asset Management as a worry. "We think there will likely be negative earnings revisions, primarily from MAM," says Citi. While some investors may see the longer-term MAM story, particularly in green assets, Citi says it reckons there will be a close focus on any structural shift lower in the profitability of those asset realizations in the medium term. Overall, for the FY 2024 result, Citi says there were little surprises at a headline level.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0041 GMT - Macquarie FY 2024 results were inline, but the business division's outcomes were worse-than-expected, says UBS analyst John Storey in a note. On guidance into the future, UBS notes that Macquarie says Macquarie Asset Management base fees are expected to be broadly in line, while net other income are likely to rise significantly due to higher green asset realizations. For the Commodities and Global Markets unit, Macquarie sees commodities income will be broadly in line, while competitive market dynamics will continue to drive margin pressure for Banking and Financial Services. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2332 GMT - Bapcor keeps its bull at Macquarie despite its downgraded outlook, with analysts pointing out that problems are largely cost- rather than demand-related. They tell clients that the automotive-accessory supplier's revenue for the nine months through March was broadly in line with their forecasts despite tough trading conditions. Lower-than-expected productivity benefits and higher interest costs were the drivers of the downgrade, they point out. They see Bapcor as a quality business with turnaround potential under the right CEO. Its target price falls 24% to A$5.25/share but Macquarie keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which is at A$4.40 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2305 GMT - Bapcor's latest update was exceptionally short on detail given the magnitude of the outlook downgrade it contained, Jefferies analysts tell clients in a note. Using the mid-point of the automotive-accessory supplier's guidance range, they say that the company's FY profit expectation is about 45% lower than they had previously anticipated. The Jefferies analysts wonder if Bapcor is consulting external advisers on how to restore value and, if so, why they haven't communicated this to shareholders. It is also hard to think of any company among Australia's 300 largest that has experienced such a degree of management turmoil, they add. Jefferies has a last-published buy rating and A$7.15 target price. Shares fell 24% Thursday and are at A$4.40 ahead of Friday's open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0603 GMT - Retail banking in Australia remains highly competitive, with lower margins in home lending challenging returns, CEO Andrew Irvine tells a media call after handing down the Australian lender's 1H FY 2024 results.Still, he says the lender sees returns in Australian home lending "bottoming out," and starting to come back. "We're a disciplined allocator of capital in our business, and so if home lending continues to rationalize, I think you can see us put more capital in that part of our business," says Irvine. But if it doesn't, NAB will allocate capital in its business banking services, he adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0601 GMT - NAB has continued to see good credit growth for small and medium businesses, with credit up almost 9% in the past 12 months, CEO Andrew Irvine tells a media call after handing down the Australian lender's 1H FY 2024 results. "Interestingly in March, we had our strongest pipeline on record in the business bank. That's frankly astonishing," he says, noting that NAB is the largest lender to small and medium businesses in Australia. Irvine, who recently became NAB's new CEO, says there are unlikely to be any major pivots imminently in the bank's strategy. Still, the focus will remain on greater customer-centricity and ongoing simplification of NAB's business. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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