Forum Topics AD8 AD8 Similaries with Ecosystem winners
mushroompanda
3 months ago

I've been listening to Acquired's latest podcast episode on Microsoft. It'll be a multi-part series and the first part covers the inception to the Windows 95 era: https://overcast.fm/+_ztx-Hwf8

At the risk of sounding like a Baggy, I can't help but draw similarities with Audinate.

In the episode, Microsoft was described as the Visa to Apple's Amex. The trade off here is perhaps having a slightly inferior experience when compared to a vertically integrated solution, but being able to grow much faster by leveraging the capabilities of partners. Visa and Mastercard, by being an open network, were able to leverage the distribution and balance sheets of banks to scale and build up a payment network faster. Microsoft wasn't bogged own by having to build hardware but instead rode the back of IBM and IBM-compatible PCs. Bill Gates once said that a thriving ecosystem is one where you're generating more revenue for those around you, than you are taking yourself. And this is what Microsoft did in the 80s/90s. Microsoft enabled a whole ecosystem that made its partners very rich and successful - Dell, Compaq, Gateway, Intuit, Adobe, etc.

There are similarities here with ProAV and Audinate. The vast majority of revenues are going to manufactures of amps, speakers, mics, mixers, and now cameras, video encoders/decoders. But Audinate is sitting in the middle, making them all interoperable and helping the hardware manufacturers fight the Amexes and Apples of the industry (Creston and Extron) and shift more units.

Microsoft's big break came in 1981 with the launch of the IBM PC. IBM didn't have an operating system, and commissioned Microsoft - who at the time was supplying IBM with some programming languages - to solve for this. Microsoft acquired QDOS (quick and dirty operating system) which was repurposed into MS DOS. DOS spawned a whole industry of IBM clone machines and desktop software developers, Microsoft became more powerful than IBM, and the rest was history.

Audinate's big break came in 2009 and 2012, when Yamaha first became a customer and later took an investment in the company and became more active in its promotion. Unlikely the Microsoft and IBM, Yamaha was well aware of the interoperable story (where IBM was blindsided), took an equity stake in the company and continues as a partner/investor today. At the time of the IPO, Yamaha was 22% of revenues and this is now down to 6% as of the FY23 results.

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I find these success stories facilitating. My personal takeaways:

  • True ecosystem plays are rare. It's hard to think of companies, with a diverse set of partners, and creating immense value for all of them.
  • In the network-effect game, companies that can leverage the distribution, capital, know-how of its partners can build up networks the fastest and win. Visa leveraged banks, Microsoft with IBM clone manufacturers and Audinate with ProAV OEMs/ODMs.
  • A company's break out moment can come through the anointment by an dominant industry player. It was IBM for Microsoft and Yamaha for Audinate. Steve Balmer called it "ride the bear". "You just had to try to stay on the bear's back and the bear would twist and turn and try to buck you and throw you, but darn, we were going to ride the bear because the bear was the biggest, the most important you just had to be with the bear, otherwise you would be under the bear in the computer industry, and IBM was the bear, and we were going to ride the back of the bear."


Anyone know of any companies sitting in the middle of fledgling ecosystems and "riding the bear" right now?

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jcmleng
3 months ago

@mushroompanda , great post and much appreciated!

If I understood you correctly, the companies that I hold which could be in this "ecosystem" zone and having their dominant industry partner come to the party in a big/big--ish way:

  • C79 Chrysos Corp - Barrick Gold got into a partnership with C79, and being one of the world largest gold miner, effectively stamped in endorsement of the technology
  • SDR - Siteminder - through its new Smart Platform which connects big online travel product distributors (Agoda, Trip), with small hotels (who hold the room inventory) and the customer - SDR sits right in the middle of this and will take a clip off the booking values. Each additional sign-on of the online distributors adds more strength to the ecosystem
  • ALU - but they have been gobbled outright


The other big ecosystems play which I like - XRO and SQ2, but they do not have dominant partners, but a heck of a lot of small partners which make up their respective ecosystems.

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jcmleng
3 months ago

One more to add to the "riding the bear: list, albeit a bit early in the lifecycle:

EMV EM Vision - their long-standing technology collaborator Keysight Technologies (KEYS) took a strategic 8.73% $15m investment in EMV. Keysight manufactures the Vector Network Analysers, core to the sensors that EMV's emu point of care brain scanner uses. This was Keysight's first major investment in the global medical device manufacturing and imaging sector, so a big tick to the product. EMV and KEYS are now intertwined in a much deeper relationship which I think will further entrench EMV's moad around portable brain scanning technology.

Sounds a bit like the Yamaha stake in AD8 in @mushroompanda's post, the more I think about it..

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Strawman
3 months ago

Loved this @mushroompanda

@jcmleng had some great suggestions for others that are "riding the bear", but I must admit I'm struggling to think of an example. Maybe REA Group back in the early days given News' stake and backing -- but that doesnt quite fit (?). As you say, these types of companies are rare!


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mushroompanda
3 months ago

Thanks for the suggestions @jcmleng . You’ve definitely highlighted some high quality companies.

I think Xero would classify as one. With the Xero marketplace, they’ve created a platform where third parties can offer services (payroll, HR, foreign exchange, loans, etc) to Xero customers. Xero is creating value by helping these companies make money, while providing an improved service to its customers. As more companies enter the marketplace, the better it is for Xero’s end customers.

I’d say Altium - although a larger and some may deem a better business than Audinate - is only part of the way there. They’re trying to build out a platform now in A365 and much of it depends on its continued success and how it competes with similar but broader platforms by companies like Autodesk. I think you’d need to see some “Built for Altium” branding in the future, similar to what you’re seeing with Adobe right now.

In my mind, Chrysos is clearly not an ecosystem play. Although having Barrick as a showcase helps with the marketing to new customers - having Barrick on board doesn’t improve the product/service in a tangible way.

Thinking about it now. An ecosystem business is probably a business with strong network effects and also helps its partners make money and the partners in turn help reinforce the network effect.

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jcmleng
3 months ago

@mushroompanda , I like your definition: "An ecosystem business is probably a business with strong network effects and also helps its partners make money and the partners in turn help reinforce the network effect."

Agree that ALU and C79 will not fit this definition.

I didn't include XRO as I was thinking of a dominant partner (like IBM is to Microsoft) rather than many partners, but the way you describe it makes sense.

If XRO meets the definition, then SDR is in the early stages only - I do think it has the ability to be XRO-like once all capabilities are built and matured, but they are some years away from that.

I thought EMV, again, given the dominant partner, and while I think it has the potential, it is a long way off given where it is.

Strawman's REA makes sense.

Looking abroad, would you put Apple and Amazon in this group?

Good food for thought exercise for me as it prompted another lens from which to look at companies!


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mushroompanda
3 months ago

@jcmleng

Amazon I'm not too sure, maybe there's components of it's business particularly on the AWS side that is.

Apple is definitely one. The software that have been written specifically for the Mac and the App Stores for both the iPhone and the Mac. There's also Car Play (partnerships with auto manufacturers), Apple Pay (banks) and "Made for iPhone" (accessories) that entrench the network. There are also some really network-effect-y stuff in Find My (finding items), Apple Home (home automation), and Airplay (speakers, tvs).

I've always thought Audinate looked very similar to the Apple Airplay business

  1. It's interoperable audio visual! The difference is Apple plays in the consumer segment and Audinate in pro.
  2. Apple doesn't do anything except provide the software and clip the manufacturers.
  3. It's a major point of differentiation for manufacturers.


The other company that comes to mind, and I've mentioned previously on SM, is Dolby.

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Slomo
3 months ago

This is a great lens @mushroompanda, finding comparables / metaphors in investing can be powerful - but also a little fraught if there are significant differences that make the comparable less than useful.

This is generally the problem I have with Relative Valuations - you have to adjust for the differences but the differences are often harder to identify and quantify than just fundamentally valuing the thing in the first place.

Dolby is probably another version of this - David Dolby was also an early investor in Audinate, as he runs Dolby family money, so likely saw something familiar in Audinate and wanted in, until recently anyway...

I would say WTC is in a similar position in as far as they are attempting to become the operating system for global logistics / freight forwarders. It's doing this in part by allowing it's much larger (Bear) customers to reduce costs and therefore compete more effectively, which then attracts more customers. So CargoWise (WTC) then becomes table stakes to compete and the de facto industry standard. That's my thesis anyway.

Disc: Held

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thunderhead
2 months ago

Nice OP @mushroompanda. It's not quite analogous, but I thought of XRO immediately too after I read the post.

I think WTC with its current strategy fits the bill quite nicely, even though it is quite large already :)

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