Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 09 May 2024 15:03:03
Jimmy
3 months ago

0421 GMT - Limited financial detail makes it difficult to agree with Perpetual's board that KKR's offer to buy two of its three units is the best available option for shareholders, says UBS analyst Shreyas Patel in a note. The investment bank sees that the negative market reaction to the potential deal leaves it open to interest from potential interlopers, as well as further agitation from key shareholders. While KKR's offer price is higher than UBS anticipated, the structure of the deal itself leaves "many unanswered questions regarding net proceeds back to shareholders," the investment bank says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0415 GMT - If the deal for KKR to buy two of Perpetual's business units is consummated, Perpetual shareholders would retain ownership of Perpetual Asset Management. They would likely be exposed to greater earnings volatility than before, says Morningstar analyst Shaun Ler in a note. This is because the asset management business faces more competitive intensity than wealth management and corporate trust- the two assets Perpetual plans to sell to KKR. On the proposed deal in general, Morningstar sees there is a lack of cost details. "While we anticipate transaction and separation costs to be contained within 10%-20% of the deal value, tax implications are uncertain, seemingly even to the Perpetual board and management," the ratings company says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0340 GMT - Prospects of a higher offer for PSC insurance, after the announcement that it had entered into an agreement with U.K.-based insurance broker Ardonagh, appear low, say Jarden analysts in a note. PSC's board has recommended a cash offer by Ardonagh to buy PSC for an equity value of A$2.26 billion. Jarden notes press reports suggesting that PSC had already fielded interest from Marsh and AJ Gallagher prior to proceeding with Ardonagh. Jarden says it now expects PSC shares to trade on newsflow around M&A rather than fundamentals, and maintains it neutral call on the stock.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0312 GMT - Perpetual's announcement of a deal to sell two of its units to KKR marks a critical milestone, but it may be a premature one, say Jarden analysts in a note. This is because the net proceeds remain unclear, with Perpetual indicating it will only be in a position to update the market on net cash proceeds by its FY 2024 result in August, they say. Still, despite having limited visibility, Jarden reckons on an "assessment of potential outcomes, even ignoring potential tax efficiencies from a concurrent organizational restructure," there could be an upside skew to value risks associated with the deal. Jarden keeps its overweight call on Perpetual. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0219 GMT - ARB Corp.'s positive 3Q trading update and an improving outlook for the automotive-accessory market leave Ord Minnett analyst James Casey even more bullish on the stock. Casey lifts his recommendation to buy from accumulate, pointing to an improvement in sales momentum since the end of ARB's fiscal 1H and a first increase in quarterly export sales in 18 months amid improvement in the U.K. and the Americas. With supply of new vehicles to Australia having improved, he anticipates favorable trading conditions persisting through to fiscal 2025. Ord Minnett lifts the stock's target price 3.5% to A$44.00. Shares are down 5.7% at A$36.69. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0149 GMT - Temple & Webster's latest trading update is in line with expectations and the Australian furniture retailer will be able to keep growing market share, Citi analysts tell clients in a note. They write that 30% on-year sales growth so far in the company's fiscal 2H aligns with both their forecasts and broader market expectations. While they see on-year sales growth becoming more challenging through the remainder of the June half, they reckon that Temple & Webster can sustain momentum through continued gains from incumbents. Citi has a buy rating and A$13.00 target price on the stock, which is down 10% at A$11.33. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0148 GMT - While the market will be pleased with Orica's earnings beat and improved margins, investors will have questions around lower-than-expected revenue, Citi analyst Paul McTaggart says in a note. First-half revenue of A$3.66 billion misses consensus by 10%, he says. Still, Orica's Ebitda margin is roughly 20% higher than expectations, and its Ebit is a 7% beat, notes McTaggart. Orica is up 0.4% at A$18.37/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0114 GMT - Commonwealth Bank of Australia's 3Q FY 2024 trading result shows its net interest margin is stabilizing, say Citi analysts in a note. CBA's update doesn't disclose exact net interest income or NIM, but Citi estimates that the 3Q NIM was around 1.97%, down 2 basis points versus the 1H average. "We and consensus are forecasting around 4bps of NIM decline for the half, and CBA looks to have beaten expectations," says Citi. It reckons the stabilization and likely modest improvement in the NIM reflects stabilization in retail banking, helped by better channel mix in mortgages. "We expect the market to receive the result well from a fundamental perspective, although the valuation still remains very challenging from our perspective," UBS says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0042 GMT - U.K.-based insurance broker Ardonagh's offer to buy Australia's PSC Insurance is appealing for the latter's shareholders, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. The offer, is 6% above MS's A$5.85 target price, and "presents an attractive multiple for shareholders," the analysts say. PSC's board has recommended a cash offer by Ardonagh, which values the company at A$6.19/share. This translates into a 27.6% premium to PSC's closing price of A$4.85 a share on March 12, the last trading day before market speculation about the potential deal was reported, PSC said Wednesday. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0043 GMT - One reason why Macquarie expects Goodman to beat its upgraded profit view: history. Goodman now expects operating EPS to increase 13% in FY 2024, up from prior guidance for 11% growth. In a note, Macquarie highlights that Goodman upgraded its guidance at the 3Q update over the past three years and has beaten guidance at its annual result in each of the past six years. Macquarie forecasts Goodman's operating EPS to rise 14% and sticks with its outperform call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0042 GMT - Orica's 1H profit result is a "solid beat" thanks to ongoing strong demand for its blasting products, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. The Australian company's 1H EBIT of A$353.7 million, up 10% on-year, was ahead of consensus at A$330 million and RBC's A$322 million estimate, the analysts say. RBC has an outperform rating and A$21.50 target on the stock. Orica is up 0.8% at A$18.45/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0041 GMT - JB Hi-Fi's 3Q performance looks fine to Citi analysts Adrian Lemme and James Wang, despite the absence of any management discussion on margins. They tell clients in a note that 3Q sales growth was weaker than 2H expectations at both Citi and across the broader market, but point out that the fact that the early Easter holiday distorted on-year 3Q comparisons. They see management commentary that retail markets are challenging and competitive as being consistent with the company's 1H comments, so aren't too worried about the lack of explicit margin discussion. Citi has a buy rating and A$65.00 target price on the stock, which is down 5.5% at A$56.67. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0039 GMT - No news from JB Hi-Fi on margins or profit may be good news, suggests Jefferies. JB Hi-Fi's 3Q sales update points to a deterioration in sales trends in March and April for its JB Hi-Fi Australia stores and a stabilization at The Good Guys. However, analyst Michael Simotas says the numbers are hard to interpret because 3Q captured an extra day due to the leap year, Easter came early, and only some states were on school holidays in the period. "Generally our channel checks suggest March trading was weak but April was much better in consumer electronics and electrical categories," Jefferies says. "No commentary on margins or earnings was provided, which suggests management is comfortable with consensus." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0034 GMT - Baby Bunting is unlikely to get any relief from the drivers of its sharp sales slowdown in the remaining weeks of FY 2024, suggests Ord Minnett. Baby Bunting says its like-for-like sales are down 7.7% in 2H so far, slightly accelerating on the 7.0% drop in 1H. Analyst James Casey says the weak trading performance reflects cost-of-living pressures on young families, prompting Baby Bunting to offer more discounts to shift stock. "We expect household expenditure will remain under pressure for the remainder of 2H," says Ord Minnett. "The FY 2024 period represents somewhat of a transition year for Baby Bunting, under a new management team, with profit recovery unlikely until FY25." Baby Bunting is sharply down 19% to A$1.54. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0026 GMT - CBA's 3Q FY 2024 trading update and operating performance is tracking in line with consensus forecasts on net interest income, but is ahead on pre-provision operating profit and cash earnings, says UBS analyst John Storey in a note. Earnings have benefited from lower expenses and impairment releases. "Despite a visible deterioration in asset-quality metrics, we think the credit impairment charges today suggest some consensus upgrades are likely for 2H FY 2024 cash earnings," says UBS. It sees that CBA is growing its mortgages, but defending the profitability of older loans remains a key imperative for management. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0012 GMT - Australian financial company Perpetual's agreement to sell two of its units to KKR for gross proceeds of A$2.18 billion is 45% above Morgan Stanley's valuation for these divisions," the investment bank says in a note. The deal "seems like a strong outcome at first glance," MS says, but notes that net proceeds are not clear as separation costs and tax on gains are unknown, with tax liability likely to be material. MS says these will be known at the FY 2024 result in August, though A$2.18 billion offers a A$670 million buffer over the investment bank's current valuation, it notes. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2341 GMT - Commonwealth Bank could see consensus core profit upgrades of around 2% for FY 2025 and FY 2026, says E&P analyst Azib Khan in a note analyzing the Australian lender's 3Q FY 2024 trading update. From this, E&P reckons that the consensus net interest margin outlook for FY 2025 and FY 2026 is too pessimistic. For 3Q, E&P expects that cash earnings run-rate is around 3.5% above both E&P and Visible Alpha consensus forecasts, and the credit impairment charge for the quarter is notably lower than expectations. "Asset quality is deteriorating in similar fashion to that generally seen in other major bank results over the last week," says E&P. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2333 GMT - REA Group's 3Q performance and improved outlook should be viewed positively by the market even though most of the drivers are already well understood, E&P analyst Entcho Raykovski says. He tells clients in a note that he expects shares in the Australian real-estate advertiser to outperform the broader market, pointing out that REA's 3Q Ebitda was 1.8% higher than he had anticipated. He adds that REA's FY yield and listing expectations are both higher than the company had previously outlined. E&P has a last-published neutral rating and A$164.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$185.00 ahead of the open. REA is 61% owned by News Corp., which owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2322 GMT - Super Retail's margins were the key negative for Jefferies in its latest trading update. Super Retail said its gross margin in FY 2024 so far is in line with the same period a year earlier, which suggests a lower outcome in 2H after a 36 bps increase in 1H. In a note, analyst Michael Simotas highlights that Super Retail's 2H margin is typically 40-50 bps higher than 1H. So, if margins remain flat for the remainder of FY 2024, its 2H margin would be down 36 bps year-over-year, or down some 60 bps sequentially from 1H to 2H, he says. Jefferies cuts its FY 2024 net profit forecast by 5.3% in response to the soft margin outlook. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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