0222 GMT - ARB Corp. shakes off its bear at Macquarie as the Australian auto-accessory supplier's exports business returns to growth. Export sales for ARB's fiscal 3Q grew 13% on the prior three months, which Macquarie's analysts see as the highlight of its latest trading update. They tell clients that ARB's U.S. growth benefited from improved inventory, enhanced distribution and the addition of an online channel. They see future growth potential from the opening of a retail site in Seattle in 2Q of FY 2025 and ARB's new products being factory fitted to some variants of Toyota's Tacoma and 4Runner models. Macquarie lifts the stock's target price 24% to A$40.10 and raises its recommendation to neutral from underperform. Shares are up 0.7% at A$39.23. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0216 GMT - Nine Entertainment's 3Q trading update was stronger than Macquarie analysts had expected but they warn that advertising-market softness remains a significant near-term headwind. The analysts tell clients in a note that, while Nine reckons that TV audiences appear to have bottomed, they are waiting on further evidence of easing revenue headwinds before becoming more positive on the Australian media conglomerate. On the whole, Macquarie is of the view that ad-markets won't bottom out for another 6-12 months. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating and A$1.65 target price on the stock, which is up 0.5% at A$1.5475. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0205 GMT - Domain's higher cost outlook takes some of the shine off the real-estate advertiser's improved listings guidance for Macquarie's analysts. They tell clients in a note that the A$4 million of additional FY 2024 listings revenue implied by the improved listings volumes and yield is offset by A$5 million of additional operating expenses. That leaves them cautious about the longer-term profit outlook, and their EPS estimates are lower than average analysts' forecasts by 6% for FY 2025 and 14% for FY 2026. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating on the stock and trims the target price by 1% to A$3.53. Shares are 0.8% lower at A$3.005. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0116 GMT - Xero is likely to target a fiscal 2025 operating-expense ratio in the low-70s, Goldman Sachs analyst Kane Hannan tells clients in a note. He expects the cloud-accounting provider, which is scheduled to report its fiscal 2024 results next week, to post operating expenses for the 12 months through March equivalent to 75.3% of sales. This is slightly above its 75% target, he notes. He sees this ratio dropping to 72.6% in fiscal 2025, although any miss would imply revenue growth ahead of market expectations. GS has a buy rating and A$156.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$120.38. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0109 GMT - Anglo American's restructuring plan isn't better than BHP's takeover proposal, according to CreditSights analysts Wen Li and Michael O'Brien, who reckon a takeover by the mining giant is the more likely outcome. One of the biggest problems with Anglo's plan is that its shareholders will shoulder the risks in a radical shakeup the analysts describe as hastily assembled. "If we were [Anglo] shareholders, we would advocate for a higher bid from BHP and encourage competition by inviting other bidders to participate, versus settling for management's proposal," they say. BHP is up by 2.4% in Sydney at A$44.20. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0102 GMT - ASX has faced substantial regulatory, cost and margin pressures, which leads Goldman Sachs to see risks for the Australian securities exchange company skewed to the downside. GS analysts Julian Branganza and Brian Kim say in a note that ASX's prospects appear less appealing compared with other sectors/stocks in their coverage. An issue they call out is that the Clearing and Settlement return on equity looks weak, with the risk of competition being present. At the same time, GS sees that capex is likely to stay high into FY 2025 from CHESS replacement and tech revamp. Amongst a few positives that could help ASX's share price, is the recovery in listings and trading volumes which could see growth into FY 2025. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0057 GMT - A critical-minerals tax credit announced in Australia's budget could be a boost for miners IGO and Iluka, Morgan Stanley analysts say. Lower costs could equate to a roughly 3% rise in the broker's base-case valuation for IGO, which has a 49% interest in the Kwinana lithium refinery, they say. "However, clarification is needed on what costs will be included in 'eligible processing and refining' costs," they say. Iluka stands to benefit via the Eneabba rare-earths refinery it is building, and the MS analysts estimate a roughly 1% boost to their base-case valuation for the company. "We note no update for additional government funding to cover ILU's capex increase at the Eneabba refinery was provided," they say. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2354 GMT - Eagers Automotive's pretax profits for the first four months of 2024 are likely flat on year, says Bell Potter, which anticipates a trading update from the car dealership next Wednesday. In a note, analyst Chris Savage says Toyota sales in Australia have been strong recently, but this will largely be offset by the negatives of a lower contribution from BYD and any impact from the cybersecurity incident late last year. "The company is also cycling a lower cost base in 1H 2023--the 1H 2024 cost base is more comparable to 2H 2023 with higher finance costs--so a flat year-to-date result is probably at best with some risk of it being slightly down," Bell Potter says. Still, the bank expects a stronger 2H result, supported by the more comparable cost base. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2344 GMT - Australia's federal budget favors consumer stocks, adding to tailwinds that were already emerging for a sector that has been one of the worst performers recently, Macquarie says. The bank had already talked up the potential boost to consumer stocks from tax cuts that are effective from July 1. On top of that, the bank was surprised by the government announcing a A$300/household rebate for energy bills. "We still think there is a trading opportunity in retail," says Macquarie. It has outperform calls on consumer stocks including Coles, Flight Centre, Nick Scali, Woolworths and Temple & Webster. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2334 GMT - The Australian government's allocation of A$2 billion more funding for infrastructure in Western Sydney is a positive for several listed property companies, Macquarie says. The additional funding includes A$1.9 billion for priority road and rail projects. "The Reits with industrial developments in the Western Sydney precinct have previously flagged timing delays and cost pressures in the area," Macquarie says. "Funding for the precinct will be a positive for medium-term completions and tenant demand longer term." Reits with exposure include Charter Hall, Goodman, GPT and Mirvac, says Macquarie. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2333 GMT - Outdoor advertising appears to be bucking negative media trends, and oOh!media also appears to be benefiting from rivals not competing aggressively to win new contracts, Jefferies says. While oOh!media lost market share last year, analyst John Campbell views its outlook as more stable. "Though 30% of oOh!media's 2023 revenues continue to be in holdover, awaiting contract renewal, we're encouraged by the fact that the major players appear to be focused on contract renewal," Jefferies says. It highlights JCDecaux's recent retention of Sydney Airport and Sydney Buses contracts. While oOh!media's valuation does look expensive to Jefferies, there isn't enough visibility for it to turn positive at this stage. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2321 GMT - Pathology services provider Healius's increase to its near-term loan covenants could suggest operating conditions have worsened, Morgan Stanley says. In a note, analyst Sean Laaman says Healius's net debt-to-Ebitda covenant of 4.5x implies Ebitda of A$320 million and Ebit of A$32 million, albeit underpinned by assumptions including net debt of A$296 million at the end of FY 2024. Both earnings measures would fall short of guidance. Healius has signaled an Ebitda range of A$359 million-A$369 million and an Ebit range of A$70 million-A$80 million. MS has an underweight call on Healius. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2306 GMT - Worley's share price could mark time in the short term, says Jefferies analyst Richard Johnson, who shifts the bank's rating on the stock to "hold" from "buy" and trims its target to A$16.80 from A$18.50. While the "long-term investment theme remains intact," there are some signs "that the cycle may be taking an early breather," he says. Johnson downgrades EPS estimates for FY 2024 and 2025, and also highlights the recent sale of a large stake in the company, which the market will take some time to digest, he says. Worley ended Tuesday at A$15.24/share. The stock traded as low as A$14.40 in February after starting the year at A$17.46. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2300 GMT - Australia's major banks reported sound results for 1H FY 2024 and were mostly ahead of consensus expectations, but the sector's medium-term earnings outlook remains challenged, Wilsons Advisory analysts say in a note. The majors' capital position is a highlight, but Wilsons reckons the capital return provided by the lenders at the interim results is a temporary "sugar hit" that fails to address the lackluster medium- and long-term EPS growth outlook facing the sector. "In this context, the sector's valuation premium relative to history remains excessive and unjustified at the headline level, albeit with pockets of relative value within the sector," Wilsons says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

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2246 GMT - Anglo American's breakup plan, designed to narrow its focus on copper and iron ore, could open the door to an even-sweeter bid from mining giant BHP, according to Wood Mackenzie. "Anglo American's strategic plan is undoubtedly bold and shedding the equivalent of 39% of 2024 earnings would be transformational," says Wood Mackenzie metals and mining corporate research director James Whiteside. "However, execution risk is substantial and borne entirely by Anglo American shareholders," he adds, "so if an increased offer from BHP did materialize, it could be seen as a more straightforward option for shareholders." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires