0213 GMT - Jarden analysts covering student-placement company IDP Education are cheered by a U.K. government-sponsored committee's recommendation that post-study graduate work rights are unchanged. This outcome was better than what industry contacts had anticipated, they say in a note. They think new U.K. international student numbers will likely decline by 30%-50% at the start of the next academic year, but IDP could take a significant market share. Volumes could improve significantly in FY 2026 with the removal of regulatory uncertainty, they add. Jarden has an overweight rating and a A$19.70 target price on the stock, which is down 2.6% at A$16.56. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0200 GMT - Investors focusing on GUD's new reporting structure and proposed name change risk missing the big picture of the auto-accessory supplier's improving performance, Canaccord Genuity analyst Andrew Hodge says. He tells clients in a note that GUD is making good progress in creating, implementing and executing strategy, to the point that it is being run better than at any point in its history. GUD's recent investor day has bolstered Canaccord's conviction that the stock is too cheap at 11.2X FY 2025 earnings. Canaccord Genuity keeps a A$14.60 target price on the stock and reiterates its buy rating. Shares are up 1.0% at A$11.12. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0154 GMT - Xero's improving free cashflow position means it should consider covering the cost of stock-based compensation to avoid diluting existing shareholders' holdings, Jarden analysts Tom Beadle and Liam Robertson say. The pair tell clients in a note that the cloud-accounting provider could easily buy the shares on-market in cash, avoiding the need to issue up to 1 million new shares every year. Xero has successfully transitioned from start-up to being self-funding, they add. They warn that the stock isn't cheap but that risk-reward looks good. Jarden lifts target price 28% to A$141.00 and raises its rating to overweight from neutral. Shares are up 5.7% at A$121.71. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0148 GMT - Aristocrat CEO Trevor Croker declines to offer a timeline for the company's strategic review into its casual and mid-core gaming assets, including game developers Big Fish and Plarium, when asked about it on an analyst call. "We're not giving any guidance at the moment and it's at the early stage," he says. Croker adds the company is confident the review is the right strategic choice following the recent acquisition of NeoGames, which was aimed at positioning Aristocrat to better compete in the online real-money gaming market. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

0128 GMT - The Nuvisan pharmaceuticals business is the key swing factor for ALS's earnings, says UBS in a preview of the lab-testing specialist's FY 2024 result. UBS expects the business will remain loss making in FY 2025, predicting an EBIT loss of some A$6 million. Analyst Nathan Reilly wants more detail about how management expects to return Nuvisan to profitability, given it recently bought the remaining 51% interest in the business. "More generally, we look for clarity on how the company will provide guidance going forward, with the company looking to move away from its traditional underlying net profit guidance toward a 'building blocks' framework," UBS says. ALS is due to report its annual results on May 21. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0111 GMT - GUD Holdings' choice of South Africa for the geographic expansion of its APG business seems logical to Citi. That's because there are similarities to Australia and New Zealand where the top three selling vehicles--the Ranger, Hilux and D-Max--also rank in the top five in South Africa. In a note, analyst Sam Teeger highlights that South Africa is a key export market with 60%-70% of locally produced light commercial vehicles sold overseas, primarily to Europe. "When including exports, the South African volumes could be broadly similar to Australia should other OEMs partner with APG," Citi says. "But we note the aftermarket is likely to be more challenging in South Africa due to lower disposable income." OEMs refer to original equipment manufacturers. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0109 GMT - GrainCorp's half-year payout was higher than UBS analysts had anticipated, but the Australian grain handler's restating of prior segment results makes it hard to quickly gauge 1H performance against the investment bank's forecasts. UBS analysts tell clients that they had anticipated only a A$0.151 ordinary dividend, slightly short of GrainCorp's A$0.24/share payout, which included a A$0.10 special dividend. They say in a note that the overall result was largely pre-guided, but that net core cash of A$495 million was new and looks healthy. UBS has a buy rating and A$9.10 target price on the stock, which is up 5.1% at A$8.48. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0107 GMT - Current repricing for Australian general insurers may sustain longer than consensus expectations, says UBS analyst Scott Russell in a note. "Given most major insurers are still reporting margins below target, we expect this broad-based rational behavior to continue this year," he reckons, noting that UBS has a positive view of the insurance sector. QBE and Suncorp are UBS's top picks and it's been increasing its earnings forecasts for general insurers throughout this year as repricing benefits earn through, attritional claims inflation moderates, catastrophe budgets reach conservative levels and reinsurance costs plateau. UBS says its FY 2025 earnings per share forecasts for QBE, IAG and Suncorp are 2%-5% ahead of consensus. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0102 GMT - Expect some modest downgrades to forecasts for oOh!media following weaker-than-expected 1Q trading, says Jefferies. The outdoor advertising company reported 1Q revenue growth of 1%, well below the 6% growth that Jefferies expects across 1H as a whole. Still, there were some positive aspects to the update, with revenue growth expected to pick up in 2H. Analyst John Campbell highlights that 1Q is traditionally the smallest quarter for oOh!media and gross profit margins appear to be holding up. "In this consumer downturn, Media is doing it very tough and Outdoor, though definitely better positioned than other formats, is not immune," Jefferies says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0042 GMT - IDP Education's near-term growth prospects are likely to be constrained by tightening migration policies, Morgans analyst Scott Murdoch tells clients in a note. He writes that national governments in all IDP's major student-placement destinations are introducing more restrictive policies. He cuts his EPS forecasts for fiscal 2024, fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 by 10%, 15% and 18%, respectively. However, he remains positive on the quality of IDP's business and thinks that it should be able to resume consistent EPS growth from fiscal 2025. Morgans cuts the stock's target price 13% to A$20.20 and keeps a hold rating. Shares are down 0.1% at A$16.98. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2330 GMT - With no regulator data issued since the June 2023 quarter, Morgan Stanley analysts say Allianz's Australian result is a useful cross-read for Australian insurers and brokers, especially for IAG and Suncorp. In a note, MS says Australian pricing accelerated with Allianz Australia reporting growing pricing in the March quarter versus the December and September quarters. "This is supportive for IAG and Suncorp's margins, as AA's book is skewed to motor, home and SME," says MS, noting that industry feedback is that AA increased pricing later than other Australian insurers. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2322 GMT - One measure of Aristocrat's half-year earnings result was 12% higher than expected, Jefferies analysts say, adding that they expect Aristocrat stock to trade higher on the earnings beat. The Jefferies analysts add that the announcement of a strategic review into Aristocrat's Big Fish and Plarium social gaming businesses looks sensible, and that digital growth focus should be on online real-money gaming. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

2300 GMT - IAG is the best of the Australian-listed general insurance players to benefit from trends seen in the March quarter in FY 2024 and FY 2025, Macquarie analysts say in a note. These trends include mixed catastrophe experience, alongside continued "exceptionally strong" premium rates. While Macquarie notes the slowing of broader economic trends, it says it isn't seeing competition for new business change systematically, of which IAG is in the best position to benefit. Allianz Australia, the fourth largest general insurer in Australia by gross written premium, recently released its March quarterly group accounts. This, Macquarie says provides a read-through for IAG and Suncorp."Allianz Australia continues to see underlying improvements coming through, despite setbacks from catastrophes," Macquarie says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2245 GMT - While Australian general insurer IAG deserves to trade at a small premium to peer Suncorp, the popular vote looks to be swinging back in favor of Suncorp, says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway in a note. While there are positive prospects for both stocks in the short term, with strong top line growth and expanding margins likely, Pittaway says IAG wins in seven of Citi's 11 categories. For this reason, Citi holds a marginal preference for IAG over Suncorp. Still, Suncorp wins for Citi on gross written premium growth outlook. "In our view, both have strong earnings momentum and we expect the market to continue to buy this for now, even as valuation concerns become more paramount." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

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2234 GMT - The market may be underestimating the earnings potential of GUD Holdings as demand for products used in four-wheel-drive vehicles improves, investment bank Wilsons says. "Taking a two-year forward view, we see potential upside to consensus Ebit of A$10 million-A$13 million, driven by ECB (A$5 million) and APG (A$5 million-A$8 million)," says analyst James Ferrier, namechecking GUD business units. This assumes Australian new vehicle sales stay strong and New Zealand's economy recovers. Wilsons also expects GUD will continue to pursue M&A. It sees vehicle suspension as an obvious gap in GUD's product offering, particularly as the company wants to be a leader in 4WD accessories. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

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