0304 GMT - Peter Warren Automotive loses its bull at Morgan Stanley due to short-term uncertainties, even as the investment bank's analysts stress that their longer-term thesis remains intact. They continue to like the auto dealer's potential for organic and inorganic earnings growth but don't think investors will get clarity on the size of near-term headwinds for at least another six months. The Australian company's fiscal 2H guidance is materially short of MS's expectations, which the analysts attribute primarily to an oversupply of some models and weaker consumer demand. MS cuts its recommendation to equal-weight from overweight, paring its target price by 37% to A$1.90. Shares are down 1.4% at A$1.765. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0158 GMT - Deposit growth at Australian banks has slowed over the past six months, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a review of regulator data. In the past 3-12 months, Westpac grew household deposits well above the wider system, while NAB was broadly in line, but ANZ and CBA stayed below. "While the monthly data can be lumpy, Westpac was also the only major bank to outpace system in total Australian deposit growth over the past 3 months," MS says. Still, mortgage growth picked up in April, MS adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0153 GMT - ASX's FY 2025 cost guidance, which it is likely to present at its coming investor forum, will be higher than what consensus expects, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. They reckon this is likely as the Australian exchange is modernizing its critical tech, while satisfying regulatory obligations and trying to develop new revenue opportunities. MS also expects information on revenue growth strategies by division and updates on CHESS replacement at the forum. "Cost management will be key as we think any new revenue opportunities will be too early to value," MS says, adding that ASX will need to re-invest to modernize existing tech and build out new revenue streams. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0136 GMT - Lovisa loses its bull at Citi following its unexpected announcement that CEO Victor Herrero will leave the jewelry retailer. Analyst Sam Teeger speculates that Lovisa may have been looking to renew Herrero's contract at a lower cost. The maximum three-year compensation package handed to his replacement is about 71% lower than Herrero's, Teeger observes. He adds that CEO-designate John Cheston is probably a capable retailer, but points out that his plans for a material U.K. rollout for Premier Investments' Smiggle chain appear not to have eventuated. Citi cuts its recommendation to neutral from buy, on an unchanged A$31.65 target price. Shares are down 8.8% at A$30.92. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0123 GMT - Select Harvests' improved operating momentum has yet to be reflected in the almond farmer's stock price, Wilsons analysts say. They write in a note to clients that they are enthused by what they call the Australia-listed company's strong earnings momentum and its initiatives to improve cash flow. Its 1H Ebit was slightly below Wilsons' forecasts, but the analysts remain positive that Select Harvests will end its 2024 fiscal year by demonstrating positive free cash flow even as almond-production unit economics remain well below historical levels. Wilsons raises its target price 2.6% to A$5.53 and keeps an overweight recommendation on the stock, which is down 2.1% at A$3.20. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0118 GMT - Xero's risk of losing U.K. customers following price rises is somewhat mitigated by competitors' pricing and the simplification of its plan structures, Macquarie analysts write in a note. They tell clients that sticker shock from the cloud-accounting software provider's price hikes is probably limited to the small cohorts of its subscriber base impacted by its discontinuation of their plans. Macquarie's analysts make no change to their forecasts, saying that the quantum of the price changes is broadly in line with their expectations. Macquarie has an outperform rating and A$180.70 target price on the stock, which is down 0.3% at A$134.61. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0111 GMT - Dicker Data's margin expansion and moderating market expectations give the IT hardware distributor room to shake off a bear at Goldman Sachs. Raising their recommendation on the stock to neutral from sell, the GS analysts tell clients in a note that the Australian company has expanded earnings margins despite a 10% on-year fall in 1Q revenue. They point out that the revenue fall reflects the absence of the prior year's invoicing of orders held up by supply-chain disruptions, and that this growth headwind should ease materially from here on. GS cuts its target price 6.2% to A$9.85. Shares are up 2.2% at A$9.45. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0058 GMT - Regal Partners' acquisition of Merricks Capital, a hard asset investment specialist in private credit and alternative investments in Australia and NZ, looks attractive, says E&P analyst Olivier Coulon in a note. He sees it as complementary to Regal's existing private credit and royalties business and notes Regal's disclosure that the acquisition, which is around 6.5 times 2023 Ebitda, is expected to be accretive in 2024, prior to synergies. E&P assumes Merricks can continue to grow its funds under management and expects the deal to be well received by investors. Regal is up 1.6% to A$3.22. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0042 GMT - Australian investment platform company Netwealth has an opportunity to capture a greater share of its existing client network, but this looks to be priced in, say RBC Capital Markets analysts Jack Lynch and Wei-Weng Chen say in a note. It initiates coverage on the stock with a A$20.00 target price but says that the stock is now trading in line given its recent strong share price performance. Still RBC forecasts strong earnings growth into the future, with Netwealth's large proportion of net inflows from existing financial intermediaries presenting opportunities to capture a larger share of their current network. "We see this occurrence as likely given Netwealth's demonstrated strong track record of organic growth and account monetization," says RBC. The stock is last down 1.8% at A$20.68.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0021 GMT - Australian investment platform company Hub24 has a long runway for growth, say RBC Capital Markets analysts Jack Lynch and Wei-Weng Chen in a note. They see this growth supported by an accelerating share of inflows and relatively contained outflows. The company also has a large opportunity to capture a bigger share of its existing base through its "best-in-breed product" offering, RBC says. "This has resulted in the platform attracting new advisors and winning greater share of their funds under administration wallet," RBC says adding that it can further monetize its existing financial adviser base. It initiates coverage on Hub24 with an outperform rating a A$47.50 target price. Hub24 is last at A$43.26. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0009 GMT - The strata insurance market is likely to grow rapidly in Australia as government housing targets increasingly skew towards living where occupants own their property, but also share ownership of common property such as gardens, pools and elevators, say UBS analysts Scott Russell and Shreyas Patel in a note. Strata gross written premium is currently around A$2.4 billion, which represents 3%-4% of the general insurance industry premium in Australia and 18% of the home insurance line, they note. "Whilst relatively small, it has been growing faster than industry average over the past five years," UBS says, adding strata is likely to contribute double-digit GWP growth to insurers and underwriting agencies in the future.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0001 GMT - Champion Iron is Macquarie's iron-ore pick at a time when the bank is somewhat bearish on the steel ingredient's outlook, with the miner is expected to benefit from the continued ramp up of its Bloom Lake operation. The company's final dividend was 7% higher than consensus expectations, while FY revenue and profit was in line, Macquarie analysts say. The analysts say rail performance will be a key focus ahead due to recent disruptions. The analysts also note that Champion hasn't provided FY 2025 guidance which, while not unusual for the company, is inconsistent with other listed miners. Macquarie raises its target on the stock by 2.7% to A$7.50 and keeps a neutral rating. Champion Iron ended Friday at A$7.02/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2340 GMT - Mortgage competition between Australian lenders could be waning, say Macquarie analysts in a note. Based on feedback from mortgage brokers, Macquarie says Westpac was the most competitive in recent months but it has now retreated, with ANZ now the most competitive amongst the majors. Still, the investment bank sees the gaps between lenders as relatively small, which it reckons may lead to a normalized growth trajectory across the banks. CBA, for example, should start closing the gap with peers on volume growth, Macquarie thinks. At the same time, it says banks are now more competitive on investor loans, with pricing within around 30-40 basis points of each other. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

The selloff in steelmaking coal is overdone and has created an opportunity to pick up shares in Stanmore Resources on the cheap, according to Citi analyst Paul McTaggart, who initiates on the stock with a buy rating and A$4.00 target price. "We see the recent met coal selloff coupled with a growing Indian steel market as a buying opportunity for SMR given its circa 94% met coal product mix," McTaggart says in a note. He reckons India's economy will recover post-election from a temporary slowdown and that pre-monsoon restocking should also support coal imports there. Stanmore ended Friday at A$3.28/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2246 GMT - Australian banks are lining up to chase business-lending market share, but this may be a false dawn, say Citi analysts in a note. Doing this could further compress asset spreads, which may result in a slowdown in volumes down the track as either rates will need to rise or fiscal spending will be unsustainable, they say. For this reason, Citi says it prefers retail banking-exposed names, where volumes are expected to be more resilient and spreads have already troughed. The investment bank acknowledges business credit is earning around 7% year-on-year, but it reckons a soft landing may rely on business credit slowing. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires