Forum Topics Li Lu -research approach
Solvetheriddle
Added 6 months ago

Li Lu is the Chinese Buffet, i have attached an interview, which he rarely does, from 2006. interesting in that he goes through the research he did on a couple of holdings. Timberland he found in Value Line, did all the publicly available work, financials etc, but was still not convinced of the people, so he moved to the town where the management lived and checked out their haunts and local opinion on them etc. In another case, he was interested in a Korean company, so....moved there and checked out the assets on the ground.

the intense research led to a level of confidence that allowed him to put a significant amount into each investment. whatever it takes! hats off to him for this in-depth research. no wonder Munger gave him a large lump of the Munger fortune to invest! btw unsurprisingly he doesn't seem like a happy-go-lucky type. certainly sets a high bar.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jF5au0-JiY

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Strawman
Added 6 months ago

I'll second that @McLovin, and thanks for sharing @Solvetheriddle.

I created a transcript and used AI to summarise his key points for those that are a bit time poor (but do yourself a favour and watch the full lecture if you can)

Key points:

1. Being a value investor:

  - Value investors are a small minority (~5%) compared to the 95% of other investors in the market.

  - You need to be comfortable standing alone, basing your decisions on reason and evidence, not popular opinion.

  - Constantly learning and researching is crucial, as investing is a lifelong journey of gaining knowledge about businesses, industries, politics, science, technology, and more.


2. Thorough research:

  - When a potential opportunity arises, you must be willing to dig deep and do comprehensive research.

  - This includes talking to management, competitors, customers, visiting facilities, and reading all available information.

  - Li Lu gave an example of researching a company called Timberland, where he visited stores, talked to managers, and even joined the board to better understand the business and management.


3. Decisive action on rare opportunities:

  - Great investment opportunities with a large margin of safety are rare, but when they appear, you need to act decisively and bet significantly.

  - Li Lu mentioned examples like Timberland, which was trading at a low valuation despite strong fundamentals, and a Korean company called Daehan City, which owned valuable assets not reflected in its stock price.

  - Over an investing career, you may only encounter a handful of such opportunities, so it's essential to seize them when they arise.


4. Long-term holding of exceptional businesses:

  - Occasionally, you may find a truly exceptional "franchise" business with sustainable competitive advantages and the ability to compound capital at high rates for many years.

  - In such cases, it may be wise to hold these investments for the very long term, as selling would trigger taxes and the difficulty of finding an equally attractive opportunity.

  - Li Lu mentioned examples like Bloomberg, which has high switching costs and a virtual monopoly in its industry.


5. Continuous learning:

  - To succeed as a value investor, you must always be learning about different businesses, industries, and disciplines.

  - This accumulated knowledge helps you spot opportunities and gain insights that others might miss.

  - Li Lu emphasized the importance of reading widely, including subjects like biology, physics, and history, as they can provide valuable mental models for investing.


6. Concentrated bets on big ideas:

  - Over a long investing career, the biggest returns will likely come from a few concentrated bets on big ideas where you have a unique insight and strong conviction.

  - This requires continuously preparing, learning, and waiting patiently for these opportunities to arise.

  - Li Lu shared his own experience of missing out on a big opportunity early in his career because he was focused on short-term performance and pleasing investors, emphasizing the importance of staying true to your principles.

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Solvetheriddle
Added 6 months ago

@Strawman wow that's like magic! thanks-- ill copy it and put it in my journal. lol. I'm pointing it out to show how far these guys go into in-depth research. i thought the positions they are taking were insanely risky, but if you know more than anyone else, i suspect in their view, the investment becomes a low risk proposition. im trying to use these examples as encouragement to keep digging! :)

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Strawman
Added 6 months ago

"keep digging" is as good an investment motto as any @Solvetheriddle

The truth is that most investors are lazy (even the supposed pros), so if you're able to go a little deeper than most you give yourself such a huge edge. (that said, if i'm honest, I need to go deeper on some of my holdings... It's easier said than done!).

Buffett nailed it when he said "risk comes from not knowing what you are doing"

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Solvetheriddle
Added 6 months ago

@McLovin yes thanks for that , the TIP episode is what got me chasing YT vid, those guys and the Acquired guys do a lot of reasonably good work.

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Strawman
Added 6 months ago

I've got a Claude.ai subscription, but am thinking of switching to the latest OpenAI model to give that a go.

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thunderhead
Added 6 months ago

Came across it, but yet to listen to it. Thanks for the reminder!

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