0147 GMT - Risks around Treasury Wine Estates' short-term outlook have been materially reduced by the Australian producer's recent commentary on its business in the Americas and China, Citi analyst Sam Teeger says. He observes that investor fears that Treasury would deliver a downgrade at its recent Americas investor day proved unfounded. Teeger also sees three-year guidance for the premium Penfolds brand reducing the risk of the market misjudging the likely pace of the sales recovery to China following that country's removal of tariffs on Australian wine. Citi raises its target price 4.4% to A$12.95 and stays neutral on the stock, which is up 0.8% at A$12.53. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0129 GMT - Steadfast has been a relatively weak performer over the past 12 months, but a guidance upgrade may provide some comfort to investors and be supportive of returns, says E&P analyst Olivier Coulon in a note. The Australian general insurance broker may also garner more support with its upcoming investor days, adds E&P. As a result of the FY 2024 guidance upgrade announced Friday, E&P expects consensus to likely move towards the upper end of the new underlying net profit after tax and acquisition amortization range. "If we assume consensus numbers end up at A$301.5 million, this would see upgrades ofaround 1.2% to Visible Alpha consensus," says E&P.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0120 GMT - Australian property advertiser REA Group secures a new bull at Citi, where analyst Siraj Ahmed points to its dominant position in the country's largest real-estate markets and product investment. Ahmed tells clients in a note that he expects REA's recent tech investments to help drive strong earnings growth over the medium-to-long term, with potential upside from stronger-than-expected monetization of seller and mortgage leads. He also sees longer-term margin support from REA's flexible cost base. Ahmed's FY 2025 and FY 2026 earnings forecasts are above the analyst average. Citi lifts its target price 15% to A$221.00 and raises its recommendation to buy from neutral. Shares are up 1.5% at A$193.14. REA is 61% owned by News Corp., which owns Dow Jones & Co., publisher of this newswire and The Wall Street Journal. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0107 GMT - Data-center operator NextDC keeps its bull at Citi despite signs that contract signings are taking longer than analyst Siraj Ahmed had expected. Ahmed writes in a note that management has indicated that the Australian company is close to signing its next set of contracts, but that this may not happen before the end of its FY 2024 on June 30. More positively, Ahmed says he gets the impression that NextDC has one or two more large contracts in its near-term pipeline. He understands that social-media platform TikTok will have more contracts in the market soon. Citi keeps a buy rating and A$19.53 target price on the stock, which is flat at A$17.62. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0100 GMT - The early closure of Mineral Resources's Yilgarn iron-ore operation is raising some questions about the outlook for rail company Aurizon and the bulks arm that it is seeking to expand. Macquarie analysts say Aurizon's bulk unit "remains a little disappointing" and the company faces an ongoing challenge to establish a broad business that can be resilient to such changes. Jarden analysts say most trains servicing Yilgarn can be redeployed elsewhere but that, with grain markets reportedly weak, Aurizon will need to find new contracts or new customers. Without finding replacement earnings--which could be with riskier counterparties--the closure of Yilgarn could cut Aurizon's bulk Ebitda by 21% in FY 2025, the analysts say. Aurizon is up 0.1% at A$3.635. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0051 GMT - Investors should be buying gold miners before they release their production reports for the June quarter, says Euroz Hartleys. The recent rally by the gold price should flow through to cash flow, instead of being consumed by cost inflation as in previous periods. That "should result in a sector wide re-rate," analyst Michael Scantlebury says in a note. Euroz Hartleys is bullish about Ramelius Resources, predicting A$90 million of cash flow in the June quarter. It also has a buy call on Perseus Mining, forecasting quarterly cash flow of some US$100 million and potential for shareholder returns. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0010 GMT - Pilbara Minerals' proposed expansion of its Pilgangoora lithium mine is bigger than Citi expected, says analyst Kate McCutcheon, who reckons the timing of the study results is tough given the oversupplied lithium market. Investors will be keen to understand the miner's "appetite to bring on more tons in an oversupplied market," as well as "expected mining or stripping costs which at first glance seem to be excluded from capex," she says. McCutcheon reckons the positive for shareholders is that the Pilgangoora resource "is world class" and an investment decision is still some time away. But a project of the scale proposed would make the mine bigger than Greenbushes, the world's largest hard-rock lithium mine, and likely require some government funding support, she adds. The stock is down 1.6% at A$3.15. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2316 GMT -- Australian private health insurer sector net margins are likely to increase around 20 basis points in 2H FY 2024, compared to the 1H, say Macquarie analysts in a note. Claims inflation is continuing, although Macquarie says various methodologies of givebacks by the PHI's have made these figures difficult to compare in prior periods. According to Macquarie's Hospital Claims Index for May, claims outlays growth well ahead of pre-Covid-19 trends, with the investment bank seeing that despite PHI being a relative safe haven in a tougher economic environment, recent industry announcements are becoming increasingly negative. It keeps its neutral recommendations on Nib and Medibank. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2245 ET - QBE's plan to close its North America middle-market business is positive, although a sale announcement would have been preferable, say Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim in a note. On the face of it, Goldman Sachs reckons the closure of QBE's mid market business implies a material underwriting benefit of around US$80 million to US$100 million. But, the investment bank thinks much of this improvement may already be baked in guidance of 95% combined operating ratio by 2025. Still outstanding, is whether there will be ongoing stranded costs, Goldman Sachs says. It cuts its target price 1.4% to A$20.90. QBE was last up 0.3% to A$17.65.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2229 GMT - If Helia were to lose its contract to provide lender mortgage insurance to CBA, it's likely to be able to distribute the resulting capital release, say Goldman Sachs analysts Andrew Lyons and John Li. This view follows a discussion with Helia, which told the market this week that CBA had advised it of its plan to issue a request for proposal relating to its external LMI requirements for the whole CBA group. Should Helia lose its CBA contract, Goldman Sachs also sees there should be very limited impact on near term earnings as the LMI provider will continue to earn gross written premium from the existing CBA contract until its expiry on Dec. 31 2025. Goldman Sachs is neutral rated on Helia. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires