Pinned straw:
Massive pullback of the share price this week from the unfortunate news of the Yilgarn Hub closure
I know a month ago I mentioned about hoping for a pullback, but not in this sort of situation. Hopefully those workers get redeployed on other work.
Tempted to dip my toe in here but instead I will do some research...
In the last JPM report (June 24), I found a few extracts about Yilgarn that looked interesting
Yilgarn last quarter produced 2.1mt.
I guess Onslow will produce 10mt in next quarter so that makes up for the shortfall.
And below is the JPM valuation of Yilgarn which is only a few cents compared to Onslow.
So the share price fall of (7%) appears to be a big overreaction. However the market is probably factoring in all the costs associated with site decommissioning and rehab at Yilgarn.
Of course former dog and possibly the Neuren equivalent of Iron Ore RHI has hardly reacted with the 200m milestone payment now a certainty
[holding RHI, thinking about MIN]
FWIW Gaurav Sodhi has posted an updated report on MIN on Intelligent Investor today and has a Buy under $65 (Sell above $120)
In short he's quite glowing on the stock
Key Points:
- Iron ore prices falling
- Lithium prices falling even more
- Balance sheet carries debt
but ...
"Nothing makes a more determined long-term investor than a fall in the price of a stock you own. Finding patience when prices fall might be a cliché, but it's the right call in this case.
If we look out three, four or five years, MinRes will be a larger, more profitable business following the investments made now, in difficult times.
Iron ore volumes and margins will expand even as prices fall; lithium margins are admittedly at risk of lower prices but will be offset by higher volumes and rise with prices. Mining services earnings continue to grow and gas assets present an uncounted option. MinRes will be more profitable over time. We just have to be patient. BUY."
DISC: Held in RL & SM
This may not be the bottom (indeed, the shares look vulnerable technically), but I couldn't resist initiating a position here at the lows. Still room to add if the market obliges with better prices over the coming months.
I'm assuming you mean MIN @thunderhead not RHI - coz RHI looks pretty good - but yeah, nah, MIN looks horrible on their chart ATPIT, but they'll be back. I'm looking to buy back in - in July or August if they stop falling and start moving sideways or up again. MinRes do tend to trend very strongly don't they!?!
But quite a ride if you stay "IN" all the time...
Probably MinRes better value than RHI at the moment given the recent moves. @thunderhead @Bear77
RHI was purely a arb trade on the RHIOJV milestone payments and royalties. I doubt there is much base metals to be found around the RHI joint venture despite what Josh Pitt says. I value the Gold and base metal potential to be "Zilch". And they have not put the money to good use if RHI goes ahead and pays the special dividend instead of doing an acquisition that could be "transformative". Maybe invest the 200m into an AI microcap? I'm sure the members in Strawman have a few ideas?
As I said, Joshua just got lucky. The saying that every dog has its day rings true here
You would have had to wait years for the market cap of RHI to explode around this news. A true example of the beauty of Micro Cap investing but without the AI, Green Industry and Software Tech Tailwinds of other microcaps which makes it even better!