0320 GMT - ANZ's strategy over the past two years doesn't appear to have delivered the expected franchise growth and profitability, Citi analysts Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong say in a note. Despite its retail bank profit falling dramatically over the past 12-18 months, ANZ has pursued an above-system mortgage growth strategy alongside cashbacks and sharp pricing, Citi says. It notes that the lender's use of significantly more costly funding has caused its retail net interest margins to decline faster than peers. "The health of ANZ's retail bank remains a concern, particularly as management rhetoric continues to be one of defiance," says Citi, which now has ANZ as third in order of preference of Australian banks. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0222 GMT - Macquarie cuts its earnings forecasts and target prices for Australian lithium stocks after downgrading its outlook for prices of the battery ingredient. Lithium price forecasts were pared on "short-term demand weakness and committed supply unable to react," analysts say. They reckon an overhang in supply will stick around into 2026 before the market tightens and prices begin to recover modestly. The analysts retain an outperform rating only for Arcadium, citing contracts that protect it from the full force of price falls. Still, they cut its target by 30% to A$6.60. Arcadium is down 1.0% at A$4.92/share. Among other stocks, the analysts say they prefer Mineral Resources over IGO and Pilbara Minerals. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0207 GMT - Worley offers growth at a reasonable price, according to Macquarie analysts, who say the stock trades at a 3% discount on a forward price/earnings ratio versus global peers. The analysts are tipping 6% revenue growth and 11% growth in Ebita in FY 2025. They reiterate an outperform rating and target of A$18.10/share. Worley is experiencing a shift in capital flows back toward oil and gas investment and incrementally away from sustainability investments, the analysts note. They highlight some sustainability projects, such as in hydrogen, as facing economic challenges. Still, the analysts say Worley's margins are similar across the sectors, "so we don't expect [an] adverse mix shift from this." Worley is up 0.1% at A$14.26/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0141 GMT - Bulk commodity markets could outperform base metals in 3Q, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. While 2Q-end saw consolidation of base metal gains, entering 3Q "we see met coal supported from India demand and supply tightness," and iron ore benefiting as supply growth passes a peak and China ramps up support for manufacturing and property, the analysts say. They downgrade base-metal play South32 to equal weight from overweight, citing valuation, and say iron-ore giant Rio Tinto "continues to provide quality and upside." (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0141 GMT - Bega Cheese remains exposed to the risk that it might have to pass through cost savings to customers in the form of lower prices, UBS analyst Evan Karatzas says. He tells clients in a note that he sees the possibility that customers could push the dairy processor for price reductions, which would pressure earnings in Bega's higher-multiple branded business. He points out that Bega's recent announcement of an opening farmgate milk price of A$8.05 shows implies a A$40 million FY 2025 earnings benefit from lower costs. Karatzas says that Bega's risk-reward looks balanced. He keeps a A$4.50 target price and a neutral rating on the stock, which is down 0.7% at A$4.25. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0128 GMT - Metals prices seem to be near their trough, so long as the U.S. doesn't experience a hard landing, says Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina. "It is time to start bottom-fishing," he says. While easing demand growth remains a negative for the mining sector, he looks to a U.S. infrastructure-investment program that will be metals intensive as reason to expect a turnaround.(rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0124 GMT - Ord Minnett had expected Alkane Resources to signal higher costs at its Tomingley gold mine in eastern Australia and a slower rampup, but the five-year outlook was softer than it had anticipated. Alkane expects to produce 70,000-80,000 oz of gold in FY 2025, some 5% below what analyst Paul Kaner had forecast. Also, forecast all-in sustaining costs of A$2,400-A$2,600 in FY 2025 was 25% more than he expected. Ord Minnett believes the soft outlook "explains the recent debt restructure to improve balance sheet flexibility." Alkane in May increased its debt facility with Macquarie Bank to A$60 million, from A$50 million, and extended the term by six months to June 2027. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0115 GMT - Mortgage competition is likely to remain a margin headwind for lenders in Australia , say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. This is even as home loan discounting has eased, the investment bank adds. "In our view, there is more competition for mortgages than retail deposits in Australia," says MS. Still, it reckons that there could be modest upside to its major bank margin forecasts if deposit competition remains benign, with MS seeing that it will stay muted unless household deposit growth slows or there is a shock in global credit markets. This comes as Australian authorities announced a range of measures to help Australians "get better rates on their mortgages and savings accounts." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0110 GMT - Risks abound for casino operator Star Entertainment as its earnings continue to deteriorate, Jefferies says. Conditions remain subdued in an environment of increasing operating costs, analyst Simon Thackray says. Star now expects FY 2024 Ebitda of A$165 million-A$180 million, representing a 10% miss to consensus expectations at the midpoint of that range. Jefferies is also concerned about the departure of former chairman David Foster from the board and leadership change. Star needs management certainty to navigate issues such as refinancing debt tied to its Queen's Wharf Brisbane resort and an inquiry in New South Wales state, the bank says. Star is down 7.1% at A$0.455. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0101 GMT - Consensus downgrades to Metcash's earnings are likely to follow the retailer's FY 2024 result today, says Jefferies. That's despite annual net profit and Ebit beating expectations. In a note, analyst Michael Simotas says the market will likely be concerned about a weak 2H for Metcash's Total Tools business and guidance for above-consensus interest costs in FY 2025. Still, Jefferies retains a buy call on Metcash, noting its Food and Liquor business remains resilient and Hardware/Tools is well positioned for an improving economic outlook. Metcash is down 4.5% at A$3.61. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0058 GMT - A visit to Evolution's Cowal and Northparkes mines prompts UBS to pare expectations for the producer's cash flow. Prior to touring the operations in eastern Australia, analyst Levi Spry had forecast Evolution's free cash flow yield at nearly 15% near term. Now, he lowers that to 8%-11% over FY 2025-FY 2027. Evolution has guided to growth capex of some A$200 million-A$230 million annually over the next five years, which was well above UBS's expectations. "We are alert to more capex and cost surprises (across the industry) as we move into guidance season, but for now see better gold options elsewhere," UBS says. The bank retains a neutral call on Evolution's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0052 GMT - UBS questions whether the market can handle the additional lithium that will come from Pilbara Minerals' proposed expansion of its Pilgangoora mine. In the short term, analyst Levi Spry views the market as well supplied. And he thinks Pilbara Minerals's P2000 project and Zijin Mining's Manono mine will quickly solve any potential lithium-supply deficit in 2030. For Pilbara Minerals, UBS estimates its cash inflection point won't arrive until late 2027 as prices return to the bank's long-term lithium price forecast of US$1,400/ton and capex begins to fall. "However, more project announcements like this and Manono will likely push out a return to incentive based prices and keep prices near current marginal cost support levels," UBS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0034 GMT - Commonwealth Bank appears to be still focused on defending its mortgage market share, says UBS analyst John Storey in a note ahead of the Australian major lender's black-out period before its FY 2024 result. UBS sees CBA as writing business above its cost of capital despite intense competition, particularly in mortgages. "According to CBA, it will defend market share with management focused on customer retention, proprietary channel distribution, and more complex loans to get the return it needs," UBS says. At the same, the investment bank says CBA is reluctant to cede further share to brokers. Mortgage competition, although easing, continues to weigh on net interest margin and is unlikely to change anytime soon, UBS adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires