0507 GMT - It's going to take roughly 8 years for Evolution Mining to reach net cash, Macquarie analysts say following visits to the gold company's Cowal and Northparkes mines, pushing out the milestone from a 5.5-year projection previously. "Cowal and Northparkes are both meaningful operations for EVN, but meaningful capital is required for their next phase," the analysts say in a note. They say the next orebody development at Northparkes and the open-pit extensions at Cowal were the focus of the visits. Evolution shares are down 1.3% at A$3.495.(rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0439 GMT - Paladin's proposed $833 million all-scrip acquisition of Canada's Fission Uranium will bring in CGN, one of China's top nuclear-power companies, as a new customer and shareholder, Macquarie analysts say in a note. CGN has a nearly 12% stake in Fission and, on a proforma basis, would become a roughly 2.7% shareholder in Paladin, say the analysts. CGN also has some existing supply arrangements for around 20% of volume from Fission's PLS project, they add. Paladin is down 4.4% at A$12.655/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0425 GMT - Paladin's planned $833 million acquisition of Fission Uranium could turn the Australian company into "a meaningful global uranium play," Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. With Fission's PLS project, Paladin could expand to produce up to about 15 million pounds a year by roughly fiscal 2029, the analysts say. That is equal to about 12% of 2022 production, they add. "We estimate Fission EV/Resource at 6.3x in line versus PDN EV/Resource of 6.4x, but well below global peers at [circa] 26.6x," say the analysts. Paladin is down 4.8% at A$12.60/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0348 GMT - Telstra looks excessively discounted to Bell Potter analyst Chris Savage on a price-to-earnings basis. He tells clients in a note that the Australian telecommunications provider is trading at 18.6 times his fiscal 2025 earnings forecast, on an underlying basis. This represents a 24% discount to the average of those stocks he sees as peers, including Coles, Wesfarmers and Woolworths. The expectation that Telstra can grow EPS in the mid-to-high single digits over the next few years makes this look excessive, Savage says. Bell Potter trims its target price by 1.2% to A$4.20 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$3.635. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0336 GMT - Webjet's plan to demerge its consumer business wins support from Wilsons analyst Ben Wilson, who thinks that the move could unlock additional shareholder value. Wilson approves of the structure proposed by Webjet for two standalone businesses, and expects the majority of the group's net cash to be allocated to the travel-booking company's corporate unit. The leadership teams of both businesses also look good to Wilson, who tells clients in a note that it makes sense for Webjet's current CEO and CFO to stick with the faster-growing corporate unit. Wilsons has an overweight recommendation and A$10.04 target price on the stock, which is up 0.6% at A$8.86. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0325 GMT - Supermarket wholesaler Metcash keeps its bull at Macquarie despite deteriorating sentiment among builders weighing on its hardware business. Macquarie's analysts tell clients in a note that a rapid slowdown in builders' confidence is hitting demand, with like-for-like sales at Metcash's Total Tools business slipping 1.9% on-year at the start of fiscal 2025. Even so, they continue to see growth opportunities from Metcash's acquisitions in both food and hardware. These acquisitions and Metcash's reinvestment in its existing operations have set it up for medium-term growth, they add. Target price falls 2% to A$4.20 and the stock keeps its outperform rating. Shares are up 0.3% at A$3.70. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0312 GMT - Star Entertainment's second profit warning of the year scares off a bull despite the valuation support offered by the casino operator's large property portfolio. Morgans analyst Leo Partridge cuts his recommendation on the stock to hold from add, telling clients in a note that he thinks it's better to remain on the sidelines until regulatory and trading conditions improve. He won't be buying until he sees clarity on the status of Star's Sydney license, more stable leadership, improved operating conditions and the impact of cashless gaming at Star's Sydney casino. Morgans cuts its target price 10% to A$0.45. Shares are down 1.6% at A$0.4625. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0222 GMT - ResMed loses its bull at Citi amid concerns about the impact of weight-loss drugs and the resurgence of one of the breathing-tech provider's main rivals. Analyst Mathieu Chevrier tells clients in a note that he sees anti-obesity medication reducing the total addressable market for continuous-positive-airway-pressure machines, such as those marketed by ResMed, by 15% over the three years through fiscal 2028. There's also the issue of Philips' likely recovery from a 2021 product recall. Chevrier sees Philips gradually regaining a 20% market share, half of it coming from ResMed. Citi lowers its target price by 17% to A$30.00 and cuts its recommendation to neutral from buy. Shares are up 0.7% at A$27.93. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0137 GMT - Telstra might consider taking capital off its balance sheet by ring-fencing projects or assets to help maintain its credit rating, Jarden analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the Australian telecommunications provider could make the change if it reassesses its capital-allocation principles as part of its next five-year strategy. Jarden thinks Telstra is likely to stay committed to an A-band credit rating, so could look at ring-fencing large capital projects or partnerships with cloud hyperscalers to run at different levels of leverage from the rest of the business. Jarden has a buy rating and A$4.00/share target price on the stock, which is up 0.7% at A$3.645. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0106 GMT - Star Entertainment's annual earnings guidance leaves Macquarie analysts with questions over the casino operator's costs. The analysts tell clients in a note that the Australian company has not quantified the impact of remediation and transformation on its elevated costs. Without this information, Macquarie cannot tell what costs are permanent and what are temporary. Accordingly, they have not fully incorporated the FY 2024 earnings downgrade into their FY 2025 forecasts. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating on the stock and lowers its target price by 10% to A$0.45/share. Shares are down 2.1% at A$0.46. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0054 GMT - More Australian non-bank lenders are originating loans to pension funds that are self-managed, which is increasing competition in the niche sector, says S&P Global Ratings in a new report. These loans allow members to leverage assets held by their funds to purchase an investment property. So far these types of loans have performed solidly, with low levels of arrears and losses, the ratings company says. S&P reckons interest in lending to self-managed pension funds will likely continue to grow, but the particular risks associated with these could be harder to mitigate. In Australia, self-managed funds account for around a quarter of Australia's A$3.9 trillion of pension assets. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0044 GMT - Steadfast has M&A opportunities in Australia for at least another decade, says UBS. The insurance broker has the potential to do deals that add A$435 million in Ebitda, analyst Shreyas Patel says. UBS lists M&A opportunities, including in non-equity brokers and existing equity brokers, that would require future investment of A$4 billion-A$5 billion and "at the current run-rate ofspend (A$280 million/per annum) would take 15 years to exhaust," UBS says. In contrast, UBS contends that expansion in the U.S. is likely to be a "slower brew." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0018 GMT - Steadfast has the option to pursue a substantial U.S. market opportunity, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. The investment bank sees "at least" three areas for growth, with one being the Australian insurance broking company growing its ISU network in the U.S. Steadfast last year bought ISU, an insurance agency network in the U.S., and MS says it now has 233 members, up from 225 at the October 2023 acquisition. "Growing ISU may require some investment in tech and analytics, but SDF emphasized that ISU can reinvest to self fund its growth," says MS. Another avenue would be Steadfast making U.S. acquisitions, MS adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2359 GMT - Deposit competition between Australian banks will be the key swing factor for margins in 2024-25, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. They note that each of the major banks is focused on growing its deposits and maintaining or winning share in transaction banking. "In our view, it will be important to monitor growth in transaction accounts and changes in rates on savings accounts in response to any RBA rate changes," says MS. Still, regulator data show Australian household deposit growth has slowed, and MS reckons investors should watch near-term trends closely, as a sustained slowdown in household deposit growth would likely lead to more competition for savings accounts and term deposits.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2348 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates may be underestimating its earnings outlook now that China has lifted tariffs on Australian wine imports, suggests Morgans. Treasury Wine expects its premium Penfolds business to grow EBIT by 15% in FY 2024, by low double-digits in FY 2025, and 15% annually in both FY 2026 and FY 2027. "Earnings growth in FY26/27 could prove conservative given Penfolds has not assumed any further price rises beyond FY25," says analyst Belinda Moore in a note. "We note Penfolds has a track record of raising prices." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2345 GMT - The current macroeconomic backdrop keeps Wilsons Advisory constructive on global equities despite some caution around current U.S. valuations and signs of exuberance in the tech sector. Its analysts say in Wilsons' 3Q asset allocation strategy that growth outside the U.S. is improving off a low base and inflation is also easing. While China's growth remains subdued by historical standards, Wilson reckons that on balance it's proving to be better than feared. Other emerging markets like India, Taiwan and Korea continue to push higher backed by investor optimism toward the corporate earnings outlook, they say. "Overall, the global economy and profit cycle looks in reasonable shape despite geo-political tail risks," Wilsons says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2335 GMT - Bapcor's return on capital employed is likely to hit a low in FY 2024, but the car parts retailer and supplier has some way to go rebuilding investor confidence. Ord Minnett expects Bapcor to report FY 2024 ROCE of 7.2%, below its cost of capital of around 10%. "Our forecasts for FY 2025/FY 2026 assume Bapcor's ROCE improves, but remains below the cost of capital, unless it can address the pressure on its cost of doing business," says analyst James Casey. Bapcor shares are down some 29% since September, although they were recently lifted by Bain Capital's A$1.83 billion takeover proposal. "We would expect additional cost reduction initiatives along with benefits from the investment in its transformation program to improve returns in the medium term," Ord Minnett adds. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1915 ET - Steadfast is still evaluating its North America strategy, with it still likely to be a medium-term opportunity, Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim say in a note analyzing the insurance broking company's recent investor day. They say Steadfast views the U.S. as a strategically good fit as it will give it the chance to deploy its business model into a larger broker and agency market than what exists in Australia. Still, GS says the short-term focus remains on growing the ISU Group network organically and supporting members. Steadfast last year bought ISU, an insurance agency network in the U.S. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2249 GMT - Building materials supplier James Hardie's 10-year plan adds some context to its recently released FY 2025 earnings guidance, which came as a negative surprise, says Jefferies. James Hardie is targeting 40% Ebitda and 35% Ebit margins in its North America business, partly through achieving double-digit sales growth. "After a period of management change and anticipation of where James Hardie long-term targets would land, the revelation of these growth Key Performance Indicators will undoubtedly be well-received as they underscore James Hardie's credibility as a long-term, quality growth story," says analyst Simon Thackray. Jefferies has a hold call on James Hardie. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2246 GMT - Australia's plan to tighten regulation of supermarkets, including strengthening a code of conduct, comes with the threat of substantial fines, says Jefferies analyst Michael Simotas. Maximum penalties for the most serious breaches will be the highest of A$10 million, three times the benefit gained, or 10% of turnover in the 12 months preceding the breach. "On this basis, this implies fines as large as A$5 billion for Woolworths and A$4 billion for Coles (based on FY 2023 Australian supermarket revenue)," Simotas says. Jefferies expects supermarkets to remain front and center of media and political commentary, which increases risk of irrational pricing behavior, potentially compounding moderating food inflation and elevated costs growth. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires