0252 GMT - Global markets are likely heading into a period of higher structural inflation and greater macroeconomic volatility than in recent times, says Andrew Lill, the CIO of Rest, one of Australia's largest pension funds. Rest's flagship investment option delivered a one-year return of 8.67% for the 2023-2024 financial year, ahead of its long-term 10- and 20-year average returns, helped by its exposure to higher-quality companies like the "Magnificent 7," as well as staying invested in listed equities, Lill says in an update. Going forward, he says it's critical for Rest to maintain a well-diversified portfolio. "Our exposure to the Magnificent 7 is an example of where we have identified a valuable opportunity and acted to maximize the benefit," Lill adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0226 GMT - The trustees of Australia's pension funds still have significant gaps in their efforts to improve retirement outcomes for members, two Australian regulators say. APRA and ASIC see a "lack of urgency" in trustees when it comes to embracing the intent of a covenant that requires them to develop a retirement-income strategy for members. A survey undertaken by the two regulators found that trustees faced several challenges, including cost concerns. "The most concerning finding from this survey is the lack of progress being made by trustees in tracking the success of their strategies," APRA Deputy Chair Margaret Cole says. "Without effective success metrics, how can trustees know that their strategies are working? Members deserve better." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0202 GMT - Miner IGO's dividend update should alleviate some of the recent concern about whether cash would have to be kept by Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia, or TLEA, and the Windfield joint venture to fund capex needs at Greenbushes or Kwinana, Morgan Stanley analysts say. IGO has a 49% stake in TLEA, with the remainder held by Tianqi Lithium. The FY 2024 TLEA dividend of A$761.4 million is 6% higher than MS estimates, they say. IGO shares are down 4.4%, at A$5.595, reversing a 3.7% gain Monday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0152 GMT - Attendance at Xero's Xerocon in the U.K. and a surrounding trip meeting with accountants and competitors support Goldman Sachs's positive view on the stock. The analysts say in a note that they were encouraged by positive feedback around Xero's refreshed strategy, and have increased confidence in the U.K. being a key growth market for the company. In particular, GS calls out private equity-backed M&A within U.K. accounting as a significant tailwind. For example, one PE-backed firm has increased Xero subscriptions from around 5,000 to around 25,000. GS reiterates its buy call on Xero. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0133 GMT - Hub24 could rerate due to its superior technology, recurring revenue growth and operating leverage, says Bell Potter analyst Hayden Nicholson in a note. The investment bank initiates coverage on Hub24, an Australian specialist investment platform provider, with a buy recommendation and a target price of A$53.20. BP says its favorable investment view is partly supported by changes in the Australian financial advice landscape, with investment professionals shifting away from institutionally-owned platforms, as well as Hub24's single-digit market share and leading capital flows. Hub24 rises 0.7% to A$46.39.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0112 GMT - Lovisa's year-end store numbers may be slightly below expectations at the FY 2024 result, say Citi analysts in a note. This could put pressure on the stock given how much it has run year to date, they reckon. Citi notes a LinkedIn post made by Lovisa's CEO on July 1, which highlighted theopening of the company's 900th store, with the investment bank's analysts seeing this to be below Visible Alpha consensus of 913 for end-FY 2024. "This slower than expected rollout is consistent with our latest rollout update, where we flagged the risk that the rollout may fall short of expectations," says Citi. It recently downgraded Lovisa to neutral, given the strong share-price run combined with uncertainty following the unexpected CEO change. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0102 GMT - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's succession planning has been helped by a "deep bench," and the CEO transition is likely to be smooth, says UBS analyst John Storey in a note. The Australian regional lender on Tuesday said current CEO Marnie Baker would be stepping down at end-August, to be succeeded by Richard Fennell, the bank's chief customer officer for consumer banking. "In our view, Richard appears to be a capable replacement to Marnie Baker," says UBS. It also thinks Bendigo appears to be carrying good operating momentum as demonstrated by a better-than-expected recent trading update. Overall, UBS reckons the market will likely see the CEO announcement as "fairly neutral, and we would expect minimal disruption to the bank during this transition." Bendigo falls 0.8% to A$11.33. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0050 GMT - Policyholder growth and claims outlook for the residents portfolio will be in focus at results for Australian private health insurers, say Macquarie analysts in a note. It expects Medibank's FY 2025 policyholder growth guidance to disappoint versus Nib, while Nib's claims outlook is on track to disappoint versus Medibank. "Despite PHI being a relative safe haven in a tougher economic environment, recent industry announcements are becoming increasingly negative," says Macquarie, which keeps its neutral call on both Nib and Medibank. Medibank is trading at an around 13.3% premium to Nib, versus a long-term average premium of around 2.9%, Macquarie adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0025 GMT - It's hard to see general insurer QBE having positive catalysts in the next 12 months, say Macquarie analysts in a note. This is because the stock now trades at a notable premium to peers compared with its long-term average discount, the investment bank notes, prompting it to keep a neutral recommendation. For FY 2024, Macquarie has QBE's gross written premium growth at 5.0% on constant currency basis, compared with the insurer's guidance of mid-single-digit growth. For combined operating ratio, Macquarie estimates QBE's FY 2024 COR at 93.8%, compared with the insurer's guidance of 93.5%. "Our forecasts include around 30bps of reserve strengthening which accounts for Italian Hail, ongoing social inflation challenges in North America, and Australian weather," says Macquarie. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0005 GMT - Deposit competition at Australian banks will be a key swing factor for margins in 2024-25, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. They reckon it's especially important for smaller banks to grow low-cost deposits in order to manage margins and support loan growth. MS sees that deposit growth is improving at regional lender Bendigo, potentially improved by the rollout of digital deposits capability. Conversely, Bank of Queensland is seeing weaker deposit trends, and while latest regulator data shows modest improvement in household deposit growth, MS notes it's still well below the wider system. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
2342 GMT - The impact on Whitehaven Coal of a disruption on the Blackwater rail line will depend in big part on how much stockpiled coal the miner already has at Australia's Gladstone port, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. It will also be influenced by "the length of repairs and time required to bring the rail line back to full capacity, albeit we note media articles suggest repair process will be relatively quick" at less than a week, the analysts say. Whitehaven's Blackwater mine accounts for 35% of estimated group production for FY 2025, they add. Whitehaven closed Monday at A$8.13/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2243 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 is poised to fall at the open, despite getting a boost from Wall Street, which saw technology stock strength. ASX Futures are down 0.3%, as local investors anticipate the release of the RBA's policy meeting minutes later today. In the U.S., the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to hit its 21st record close of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.1%, while the S&P 500 added 0.3%. Ahead of the open, Mayne Pharma said it had reached a binding agreement to settle a shareholder class action. Bendigo and Adelaide Bank named Richard Fennell as its new CEO. Locally, investors are also awaiting ANZ consumer confidence data. (alice.uribe@wsj.com; @AliceUribe1)
0630 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.2% lower at 7750.7, as technology stocks weighed on the market. All but four sectors --energy, materials, utilities and property trusts--finished the day in the red. The tech sector was the biggest drag, falling 2.2%, while healthcare was another weak spot, closing 1.6% lower. Wisetech Global fell 5.2%, leading the day's tech losses. Brambles was also challenged, losing 2.0% after saying the CEO of CHEP Americas is to leave the business. Ahead of the release of the RBA's policy minutes Tuesday, major banks Westpac, CBA and NAB were down 0.1%, 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively. Still, ANZ rose 0.7%. LendLease put on 4.1% after saying it will sell its U.S. military housing business for A$480 million. Coronado Global Resources was the day's best performer, rising 8.9%. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)
0555 GMT - Consensus sell-side ratings on diversified major miners have shifted a tad more neutral over the past four months, although they remain tilted in favor of buy, Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says in a note. The change seems to reflect a decline in prices of iron ore, which is a top source of income for many of the world's big miners, he says. Ravi says 55% of the sell-side ratings assessed were for buy, versus 4% sell. In February, 57% of analysts had buy ratings and 4% recommended sell, he says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0536 GMT - Citi wonders whether the production suspension at Anglo American's Grosvenor steelmaking coal mine in Australia will be a potential issue for the miner's plans to sell its coal-mining operations. The company "is currently running the process for divestment of the steelmaking coal business and a major incident at an asset that accounts for close to a quarter of the production could impact the timing/value outcome of the process," says Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi. He reckons it will likely take months to reopen the mine and estimates the 1.2 million metric tons of production planned in 2H "will be lost." Ravi forecasts a roughly 3% hit to Anglo American's group Ebitda for 2024. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires