Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 03 Jul 2024 14:59:59
Jimmy
Added 5 months ago

0336 GMT - Labor negotiations at Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi copper operation are unlikely to impact the ramp-up of underground production there, but the potential for industrial action does introduce some risks, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. "Production from the high-grade underground mine has been steadily increasing since 1Q22 and is the key driver of copper production growth at Rio" toward about 1 million metric tons a year by 2028 versus 620,000 tons in 2023, the analysts say. A Rio Tinto spokesperson says talks with worker representatives are continuing, and "a new collective agreement is expected to be negotiated in the future." Oyu Tolgoi operations and underground development are currently running without disruption, the spokesperson says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0244 GMT - Altium's takeover by Japan's Renesas looks very likely to be completed next month, with no signs of any late interest from potential rivals, Bell Potter analyst Chris Savage says. He points out that there has been no media speculation of rival suitors or official word of another company seeking access to non-public information. On top of that, Altium shares have continued to trade at a discount to Renesas since it made its offer in February, suggesting that the market does not anticipate a higher offer. Accordingly, Savage tells clients in a note that he is bringing his target price into line with the A$68.50 offer price. Bell Potter has a hold rating on the stock, which is up 0.1% at A$68.185. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0241 GMT - There are no longer any clear reasons for Liontown Resources to underperform after the lithium company inked an expanded partnership deal with LG Energy Solution, Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon says. She upgrades Liontown to neutral from sell, but keeps Citi's target on the stock at A$1.00. LG Energy's investment in Liontown removes a funding gap for the company and is "a vote of confidence" in its Kathleen Valley project, which is due to start producing spodumene concentrate by the end of this month, says McCutcheon. While she still thinks reaching targeted underground run rates will be tough, calendar year 2025 "is an open-cut story," she says. Liontown is down 1.6% at A$0.94, after a 7.3% gain Tuesday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0228 GMT - Zip's successful strategic pivot and U.S. growth prospects earn the Australian buy-now-pay-later provider a new bull at E&P Capital. E&P analysts acknowledge the impact of Zip's lower cost structure after its exit from unprofitable international markets and are particularly positive on its U.S. opportunity. They tell clients in a note that Zip has successfully driven U.S. growth by encouraging more frequent usage and that customer numbers are now likely to grow. Zip is reducing capital intensity and will be able to grow without tapping the market for new equity, they add. E&P places a positive rating and A$1.81 target price on the stock, which is up 5.7% at A$1.49. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0224 GMT - RBC Capital Markets questions whether Sims's ferrous recycling business is profitable in current market conditions after a downbeat quarterly result from rival Radius Recycling. RBC analysts reiterate an underperform rating and A$10.75 target on Sims, highlighting what they say was "another very challenged" result from Radius. Market conditions over the past year were the toughest since 2015, according to Radius. "Without comparable downstream operations (i.e. steel mill) to support its margins, Sims is entirely exposed to the upstream recycling dynamics during this period so we again remain cautious ahead of the release of the 2H24 result in August," the analysts say. Sims is up 1.6% at A$10.155, reversing most of Tuesday's 2.0% drop. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0219 GMT - Challenger's cash operating earnings margin will likely continue to improve into FY 2025, benefiting from product cash margin expansion, Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim say in a note. They also expect strong net profit before tax growth into FY 2025. At the same time, GS reckons the Australian financial company's capital position will likely be broadly stable at the end of June. GS adds that while Challenger's investment experience has likely deteriorated over 4Q, it should be partly offset by normalized net profit after tax. GS says it awaits any update on Challenger's asset allocation into FY 2025 to either extract improved margin or manage capital position. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0205 GMT - Nib's travel insurance policy volumes tumbled during the emergence of Covid-19, say Macquarie analysts, who forecast volumes to have reached only around 39% of pre-Covid levels by 2H FY 2024. They attribute this to the loss of the Qantas contract in June 2023, which Macquarie in an note estimates accounted for around one-third of total policies in FY 2023. Excluding Qantas, Nib's pricing increased 10.1% in 4Q FY 2024 versus the previous corresponding quarter, after remaining broadly flat over the previous six months, Macquarie says. "Our forecast commission revenues for the travel division are around 5% below Visible Alpha consensus for the next 4 years," says Macquarie. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0129 GMT - Guzman Y Gomez's long-term growth prospects secure the Mexican food chain a new bull at Morgans, where analyst Billy Boulton says its premium earnings multiple is justified. Boulton initiates coverage of the stock with an add rating, telling clients in a note that none of GYG's Australia-listed fast-food peers have a comparable organic growth profile. He points out that GYG also owns its own brand, which cannot be said for other Australia-listed franchisers. Boulton thinks it is more appropriate to compare GYG with U.S.-listed Chipotle and Wing Stop. Morgans places a A$30.80 target price on the stock, which is down 2.3% at A$24.92. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0112 GMT - Adore Beauty's acquisition of beauty and wellness brand iKOU depletes the online retailer's cash pile just when consumer sentiment is weak, Citi analyst James Wang says. He tells clients in a note that Adore is spending the majority of its cash balance on the acquisition, committing itself to a riskier balance sheet. He also points out that the online company's acquisition marks its entry into physical retail, with no mention of whether iKOU's founders will be staying on. More positively, Wang sees potential for iKOU to double sales inside four years and for existing Adore margins to widen. Citi cuts its target price 12% to A$1.50 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is down 3.5% at A$0.82. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0033 GMT - Bendigo and Adelaide Bank's announcement that current CEO Marnie Baker is stepping down, to be replaced by current Chief Customer Officer Richard Fennell from end-August, may have taken investors by surprise, says Citi analyst Brendan Sproules in a note. This is as the Australian regional lender only very recently appointed Vicki Carter as its new chair. "From a strategic perspective, a CEO change is surprising given their transformation agenda, particularly, the financial objectives, remains unfinished," says Citi. But, it reckons Fennell is likely to see a level of continuity, and is well known and respected by many investors. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2254 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 looks likely to pare its recent losses at the open after tech stocks helped lift major U.S. indices. ASX futures are 0.2% higher ahead of the open, pointing to a modest opening rise for the benchmark index, which is down 0.6% so far this week after consecutive losses. Ahead of the open, APA said it expects a A$145 million impairment in its full-year results after the only user of its Sydney ethane pipeline ceased operations. GrainCorp will trade ex-dividend. In the U.S., the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% and the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, both closing at records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.4%. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0741 GMT - Civmec's latest win of A$174 million of new contracts and scope extensions for fabrication, manufacturing, construction and maintenance work across various sectors in Australia looks positive, Maybank analyst Eric Ong says in a research report. This should help replenish the Singapore-listed construction and engineering services provider's order book, which stood at A$821 million as at end-March, the analyst says. With construction of its Port Hedland facility in the Pilbara region of Western Australia completed, Civmec can now focus on offering maintenance services as its next growth driver, the analyst adds. The brokerage has a buy rating and a target price of S$1.05. Shares are at S$0.845. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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