0403 GMT - Metallurgical coal, the kind used in steelmaking, is now Morgan Stanley's top pick among mined commodities, and its analysts reckon there's a near-term opportunity to bet on stocks exposed to the energy resource. They highlight Yancoal Australia, Whitehaven Coal, Teck Resources and Shougang Fushan as their top picks. The analysts reckon investors are underestimating supply constraints for the metallurgical coal industry in China. They predict the market will tighten as those supply constraints help balance soft demand from China's property industry, while India's import demand is also expected to rise. "We forecast circa 15% upside to year-end coking coal prices, with MS [estimates] of US$290/ton in 4Q24," the analysts say. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0315 GMT - Stockland's fiscal 2025 earnings will probably come under pressure due to the delay of its deal to acquire Lendlease's managed communities business, Citi analyst Suraj Nebhani says. He writes in a note that the delay, caused by concerns at Australia's competition regulator, also pushes back the timeline for Lendlease's capital recovery. The concerns relate to about 26% of the 27,600 lots that Stockland and Supalai Australia want to acquire, so Nebhani reckons they should be able to push forward with the remaining portion. Citi has a A$5.10 target price on Stockland shares, which are down 0.6% at A$4.225. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0207 GMT - Regal Partners' update that it expects to report performance fee income for 1H FY 2024 of A$55 million-A$56 million pleases E&P analysts, who see it as confirmation that several of its funds have crossed their high watermarks. At the same time, Regal reported funds under management around A$12.2 billion as of 2Q FY 2024 versus A$12.1 billion at 1Q, which is inline with E&P forecasts, say the analysts in a note. "We think this result should remind investors of the significant upside Regal retains to strong investment performance," says E&P adding "with a much higher percentage of the FUM now back above high watermark we remain of the view that the risks to our outer year period performance fees are to the upside."(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0132 GMT - CSL is offering prospective investors an attractive entry point ahead of expected annual EPS growth of 15% over the next five years, Macquarie analysts write in a note. They tell clients that they expect the Australian vaccine maker's biotherapeutics division to drive earnings growth. Their net profit forecast for fiscal 2026 is about 4% higher than the average analyst forecast, and about 7% higher for each of the next two fiscal years. Macquarie keeps an outperform rating and A$330.00 target price on the stock, which is up 1.0% at A$297.86. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0131 GMT - Australian and international investors see Australian banks as being very expensive from a price-to-earnings perspective, says UBS analyst John Storey in a note, adding that he sees few catalysts on the horizon that could fundamentally de-rate these stocks from here, outside of valuation. UBS's view is driven by 60 one-on-one meetings with both local and international investors over the past month. The investment bank has a relative preference for ANZ among Australian banks, seeing benefits from ANZ's diversity of its business mix relative to peers. Still, UBS remains sell rated on the Australian banking sector excluding Macquarie, and thinks the stocks are above fair value. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0112 GMT - AGL Energy should continue to benefit from higher power prices while the market waits on delivery of new renewable and transmission projects, Macquarie analysts tell clients in a note. They write that forward prices since May have trended higher amid higher gas costs and some plant outages, and that the trend for the 2026 fiscal year looks the same. They observe that demand across Australia's national electricity market has grown in three of the last four quarters and expect this to continue amid growth in EVs, electrification and data centers. Macquarie lifts its target price 3.9% to A$11.28 and stays neutral on the stock, which is down 1.1% at A$10.63. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0036 GMT - CSL has several negative catalysts in the rearview mirror and is showing sufficient value for Citi to turn bullish on the stock. Analyst Mathieu Chevrier raises his recommendation to buy from neutral, pointing out that the stock has moved past events including disappointing trial results of a prospective cardiovascular drug and downgraded expectations for its Vifor business. The vaccine maker should be able to deliver double-digit profit growth despite an increasingly competitive medium-term environment, Chevrier says in a note. Its target price rises 9.8% to A$335.00, valuing the stock at 27 times earnings, in-line with its pre-Covid average. Shares are up 1.2% at A$298.31. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2325 GMT - The proposed merger of Premier Investments' apparel brands with department-store operator Myer could add up to A$3 to Premier Investments' share price, Bell Potter analyst Chami Ratnapala reckons. She writes in a note that Myer's enlarged earnings base would yield higher operating margins, unlocked value in its stock. She points out to clients that Premier shareholders would benefit from this since they would own 64% of Myer, compared with 31% currently. Ratnapala sees a combined business removing duplicated costs and utilizing Myer's distribution center, while leaning on Premier's direct sourcing and supply chain. Bell Potter has a buy rating and A$35.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$29.83 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires