Forum Topics Current Portfolio
mikebrisy
Added 5 months ago

I realise from the recent exchange with @Rick that I often talk about what is in my RL and SM portfolio, but that this have never been fully transparent (although I list all my RL holdings not on SM in my profile, and I update this at least once a month).

So, I thought I'd publish my current ASX portfolio - the real one, which includes the SM holdings. This is accurate as at the close of 10-July-2024.

$ALU will soon be gone, and I've sold most of it down already. When the takeover came in, it became my largest position.

I'm highest conviction on $PNV, $TNE, $BOT, $CSL, $AD8, $NCK - so still prepared to add some more to the last two

Learning more about them, early days, but like what I see so far are: $IPG and $DUR (some remaining questions on the latter)

Long term compounders are $MQG, $BRG and $JIN

Question marks: $NEU (short term catalysts to decide) and $8CO (probably exit the latter on recovery)

$WOW is a short/medium term trade. I'll be out north of $37-38, depending on what else I need at the time.

$IEL is a cyclical recovery play. Bottom drawer, just review every 6 months

Under consideration to increase with progress at the right price are: $XRF, $RUL, $SGI, $XRO, $CAT, $LBL, $SPZ, $BIO (new)

Merit order if I need capital: cash, then $VGS, then $WOW, then $MQG, then $JIN

Stranded due to suspension - going to $0: $MNS (what was I even thinking!)

df28e7fc255813ef9f3d6d0f31cc174af1256b.png


Watchlist

On my quality watchlist are: $FPH, $RMD, $LOV, $SNL, $WTC, $PME, $WES - some may never get into the buy zone ($PME!) - such is life

Broader watchlist is: $ABB, $AX1, $EGL, $LYL, $MAD, $MP1, $SDR, $SUL, $UNI

I'm always on the sidelines for: $WDS, $MIN, $BHP and $RIO - but it needs a proper dip in the commodity cycle - a once in 5-10 years event, not short term noise.

And there's a longer watchlist of 20-30 for which I am always changing my mind.

31

Solvetheriddle
Added 5 months ago

@mikebrisy interesting, quite a bit of crossover with me -13 stocks. the biggest difference by far is your conviction in small/micro. where we have seven stocks in common, my weight 4% your weight 28%. aggressive, to each their own. my weights include international as well (about 30%) so u can gross it up, still a wide difference

always interesting to see how other SM people approach PMgt

16

mikebrisy
Added 5 months ago

@Solvetheriddle good point. I am quite aggressive on risk in my ASX portfolio, as it is only 8% of my total asset value. I can take this risk in my late-50s, because the rest of my asset base is broader-based, passive global equities and fixed income.

So, even though my RL-ASX gains exceeded my living cost in the last FY, a 50% loss in that portfolio wouldn't change my life. I think there is nothing more important than being clear about your risk appetite and risk exposure. It can and does creep over time if you don't manage it explicitly.

19

Solvetheriddle
Added 5 months ago

@mikebrisy couldn't agree more, one thing that has become apparent to me, moving from institutional money management to being a "retail punter", is that making comparisons to others is completely different. insto managers can be compared to each other given their narrow briefs, but in retail land, there are a million different stories, ie risk/return tradeoffs, so largely incomparable. imo. for instance, im retired and my share portfolio is by far my largest asset, so the offset to massive market exposure is a conservative stock mix.

17

Rick
Added 5 months ago

Very Interesting @mikebrisy! They say, “If you can’t measure it…then you can’t manage it!” Im a big believer in that and I think the portfolio overview is a very useful starting point. I haven’t actually looked at all our investments from all accounts in a pie graph before, so you’ve prompted me to do that. I’ve often done mental calculations and often include our IRL weightings of stocks on Strawman, however I usually ignore our property investments in these.

It is really interesting to look at the weightings of equity and cash alone, compared to with real estate included. The risk doesn’t seem as high when real estate is included. The first chart includes real estate, the second equities and cash alone.

dc0c5369766a40dbab56af3f03528af809e073.png

Looking at all investments, real estate makes up 39% of all investments, and about 25% is made up of 5 stocks - BHP, CSL, CDA, IEL and NCK. I feel comfortable holding all these, however I think CDA is reaching valuation.

The next 25% is made up of 10 stocks and cash - LYL, PNV, CBA, Cash (2.9%), SIQ, NAB, DUR, RMD, LBL, SLH. A bit of a motley crew, happy holding these but the valuations look lofty for CBA and NAB. I sold down a lot of bank shares recently, mostly ANZ and Westpac which I bought to trade. I haven’t sold any CBA and probably won’t because it’s outside the super fund and capital gain is the issue.

I think the long-term proposition is good (I’d prefer these words to “high conviction”) for PNV, CSL, IEL, BHP, CDA, NCK, LYL, DUR, LBL, ACF, UNI, FLT, LOV, LYC, HIT and SPZ. I guess that stating the obvious otherwise I wouldn’t own them.

Recently I’ve bought MTS, UNI, IEL, LAU, DUR all at steep discounts when I think the proposition looked good. Some I might trade later.

I have sold a few small parcels of CDA lately, not because I don’t like the business, but it’s our fourth largest overall investment (with real estate included) and I think it’s reaching full valuation. I could be wrong though!

I currently have IEL, UNI, AX1, ACF and MIN on close watch as buying opportunities. I think they’re all trading below valuation. I could be wrong here too!


8187bbff727efc6b8c47a4cfc38be24076ab43.png

17

Remorhaz
Added 5 months ago

Thanks @mikebrisy @Solvetheriddle @Rick this was an enlightening read - when I first read Mike's initial post I was thinking along the same lines as you @Solvetheriddle - that it was a pretty aggressive allocation (internally assuming this RL ASX portfolio essentially reflected your whole asset pool - I think the Cash and VGS inclusions in it may have thrown me off)

Clarifying that it's actually only 8% of your total asset pool makes a LOT more sense - and probably closer aligns with our RL (direct stock picks) ASX portfolio (which is also somewhat small cap heavy) - looking now it's currently ~9% of our (outside/excluding Super and PPOR) asset pool (and also excludes cash held in our personal names). Like you (also in my late 50's) the rest is mostly in broad based indexes and fixed income and thus see this more as the "scratch the itch" and "educational experience" slice which could in theory go to zero without having a catastrophic impact - other than being pretty disappointed/sad :)

12