0244 GMT - The pace of Aristocrat Leisure's growth in North America is likely to ease after fiscal 2024 as the gaming-machine incumbent nears its natural market-share ceiling, Goldman Sachs analysts say. Initiating coverage of the Australia-listed stock with a neutral rating, they tell clients in a note that they also expect heightened competition to its long-term dominance in Australia and New Zealand from rival Light & Wonder. They like Aristocrat's market leadership and above-industry levels of design and development spending, but lean toward buy-rated Light & Wonder. GS has a A$55.30 target price on Aristocrat shares, which are flat at A$51.70. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0233 GMT - Macquarie analysts expect Incitec Pivot to buy back A$564 million in shares--or roughly 10% of its current market cap--over the next 18 months. The ASX-listed company this week said it will go ahead with a previously announced buyback of up to A$900 million after ending talks to sell its fertilizer business. In a client note, the Macquarie analysts say they will be looking for greater detail about its business plans at a September investor day. "We note that DAP [fertilizer] prices have been stable so far this year (spot US$540/ton U.S. Gulf) with relatively balanced demand/supply," they say. "Peak 1H demand in the Northern Hemisphere has passed, with the focus on Indian and South American demand in 2H." Incitec Pivot is down 1.7% at A$2.85. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0147 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises keeps its bull at Morgan Stanley despite the weaker yen weighing on the fast-food franchiser's international earnings. The investment bank's analysts lower their fiscal 2025 Ebit forecasts for the Australian company's Asia operations by 10%, pointing to a 12% fall in the yen over the past six months. They think that Domino's Australia business is performing ahead of expectations and that changes to its France operation should drive volume growth, but warn that Japan remains challenging. MS cuts the stock's target price 9.6% to A$47.00 and keeps an overweight recommendation. Shares are up 1.15% at A$36.09. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0122 GMT - Xero could outpace market expectations for average-revenue-per-user growth as customers upgrade to more expensive plans with additional functions, say Morgan Stanley analysts. They tell clients in a note that the market's focus on the cloud-accounting software provider's headline price increases has led to investors overlooking the impact of its repackaging of plans. They estimate that Xero's Australian customers will pay an additional 8% or more for the same cloud-based accounting software in fiscal 2025, and think that upgrades could drive that figure as high as 10%. MS lifts its target price 21% to A$170.00 and keeps an overweight rating on the stock, which is up 2.6% at A$140.44. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0120 GMT - Australian retail shareholders were net sellers of domestic banks in the June quarter, which leaves three of the four majors now having the lowest retail ownership on record, says Jarden analyst Jeff Cai in a note. He says Westpac was notably better than rivals, which likely reflects its higher franked dividend yield and less institutional support. At the same time, Jarden says, offshore ownership of banks continues to rise, although incremental buying is moderating. Locally, institutions are net buyers of banks, which Jarden reckons could be driven by index funds buying, but this is "difficult to conclusively prove," it says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0106 GMT - FY 2025 is setting up to be a very strong year for Australian wealth management platform company Netwealth, say Citi analysts in a note. For 4Q FY 2024, Netwealth delivered a "very strong" quarter of net flows and another quarter of record inflows. This momentum prompts Citi to see upside risk to FY 2025 flows and the potential for consensus upgrades to medium-term earnings. Still, near-term earnings likely need to come down, with the company continuing to call out lower revenue margins.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0055 GMT - Australian Finance Group's home loan product share and margin stabilization support the outlook for earnings, say Macquarie analysts in a note. For the June quarter, total lodgements were up 3.9% on year including the AFG Home Loan product which was up 47%, the investment bank says. It adds that growth of the AFG Home Loan lodgement, which is higher-margin, was driven by increased share. Macquarie keeps its neutral call.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0034 GMT - Challenger's front book margins were affected by decreasing credit and annuity spreads in 4Q FY 2024, say Macquarie analysts in a note. For the former, spreads were down around 12 bps versus the prior quarter, and for the latter spreads dropped around 4 bps versus the prior quarter. "The premium of Challenger's annuities rates relative to major bank deposit rates increased on the three-year and five year, increasing the relative value proposition for customers," says Macquarie. It continues to like the long-term thematic of an aging population for the Australian financial company, but is still cautious on short-term investment markets given the sensitivity to Challenger's investment portfolio. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0022 GMT - The general insurance premium pricing cycle looks to have peaked in Australia, with some products now cycling all-time highs over comparative periods, say Macquarie analysts in a note. The investment bank's proprietary commercial pricing data shows average premium per policy rises of 7.5% for SMEs in the June quarter versus the same time last year - cycling an all-time high. Still, Macquarie'sproprietary online home insurance pricing analysis found new business price rise for home risks of only 2.8% in the June quarter compared with last year. The investment bank keeps its preference for IAG over Suncorp. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0012 GMT - Netwealth's 4Q FY 2024 flows update is impressive and "very difficult to fault," say Wilsons Advisory analysts in a note. Gross inflows are meaningfully ahead of Wilsons's expectations, driven by strong seasonality and transition activity. Still, outflows for 4Q are also higher, with the analysts thinking they may have underappreciated the seasonality factor. Funds under administration are within Wilsons's expectations, with the pooled cash figure demonstrating stability. This also underpins Wilsons's bullish FY 2025 estimates that are 10% above FY 2025 consensus views for earnings per share. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2310 GMT -- The RBA is still on track to hike interest rates by 25 basis points in August, say UBS economists in a note. They add that the Australian central bank's final triggers for the monetary policy decision will remain focused on quarterly CPI and the labor market. UBS expects headline CPI in 2Q to rise by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, and the trimmed mean to increase 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, which prompts its view of a further cash rate increase in August to 4.60%. This, the economists point out, is a non-consensus view, with risks to its expectation if 2Q CPI prints lower than they forecast and/or the June labor market data is weaker, particularly if there is a spike in the unemployment rate. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0458 GMT - Incitec Pivot's decision to end talks with Indonesian state-owned PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur for its fertilizers arm diminishes the likelihood of a trade sale for that business, although doesn't rule it out entirely, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Owen Birrell. A trade sale of the fertilizers business was the bull case for the stock, says Birrell. RBC retains a sector perform rating and A$3.20 target. "In essence, we see IPL business returning to the historic status quo," with company executives effectively ruling out a future demerger on a call, Birrell says. Over the past six months, while a trade sale was on the agenda, shares shifted to a higher earnings multiple. Birrell now expects a return to historic multiples, although buybacks should provide some support over time. Incitec is down 1.7% at A$2.85. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 11, 2024 00:59 ET (04:59 GMT)