Forum Topics PNV resetting on all time frames
Saiton
Added 4 months ago

I battle with this company having a PE ratio of 1000 odd. Normally I would run away. Sales have a lot to make up for here. Anyway I dont have time to show my charts just now however the share price has held reasonably well while all the time frames have basically rest allowing for that big run we have been waiting for. Whats everyone thoughts on this company. Can you see the Sales exploding over the next yr or so?

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Parko5
Added 4 months ago

Hi @Saiton

I have not been keeping a close eye on PNV. I still think there is lots more of the world to enter for it to build a massive revenue base. At least a few more years.

In the short term i think the following will be interesting and potentially push the SP higher:

  • Revenue from India (keen to see if they carve out this out...or give us some details). This is a huge market. And something that Swami has pushed from day one he got the job.
  • Keen to see USA growth...all those new sales people should be increasing the revenue
  • Progress on some of the other potential products
  • What new markets they are entering and progress on the ones already announced.


Not sure the timing of their end of financial year. Must been soonish?

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

Saiton, I am not even looking at P/E yet for $PNV.

P/E is one useful metric once a company has a reasonable level of earnings. But $PNV is still at the profit/loss threshold. So, its essentially meaningless.

The reason for this is that in healthcare (pharma, and medical devices) rolling out globally, one key decision for approved products is the allocation of resources to sales and marketing. As DW has said for years, $PNV could be highly profitable off the back of ANZ and the US. But the strategy is to achieve a global rollout. So, they are essentially taking what I call "notional profits" from these core markets and using them to build out the sales and marketing footprint (both within US and ANZ, and more broadly).

The metrics I use to track $PNV are:

  • % Revenue growth
  • % Gross margin
  • % Expense growth (and the allocation to sales and marketing, G&A and R&D)
  • Capex - although its quite capex light, but they will have an increase here in FY25 and FY26 as they expand facilities to get $500m sales capacity.


Base on my model, I'll probably only start looking at P/E in about 3 years.

So far, I am giving DW good marks on capital allocation, although I'd like to see R&D spending increased.

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mikebrisy
Added 4 months ago

@Parko5 $PNV typically reports around 3rd week of August.

If we'd had new "record months" in any of May, June or July, then - based on established form - we'd have heard about it by now. Having not heard anything makes me think $PNV will come in very close to the quite detailed guidance that's been given earlier this year.

Because the market knows this and because there hasn't been much short activity (short position currently only <4%, which is low by historical standards), combined with the fact that based on the last 10 years $PNV price action in July is usually subdued, I'm hoping it will be a nice quiet run into the result.

Let's see.

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