0342 GMT - While Rio Tinto is sticking with its 2024 iron-ore shipment guidance of 323 million-338 million metric tons, Jefferies analysts reckon the final number will likely be toward the bottom end of that range. "Risk to full-year shipments guidance is to the downside due to the relatively weak 1H, in our view," they say in a note. Rio's 2Q iron-ore shipments fell short of the analysts' expectations due to the impact of a train collision in May. The analysts also highlight the iron-ore price outlook as a concern but say they "see good long-term value (and yield) in these shares even in a weaker iron-ore price environment." They keep a buy rating on the miner's stock, with a A$147 target. Rio Tinto falls 2.0% in Sydney to A$117.40. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0033 GMT - Hub24 has the potential to see consensus upgrades to FY 2025 expected flow forecasts to reflect an up-sized EQT transition as well as stronger underlying flows in 4QFY 2024, say Citi analysts in a note. Still, it reckons consensus revenue forecasts as being too high due to lower cash balances and admin-fee tiering. "Overall, we expect the flow update to be taken positively but the share price could be weighed down by underlying EBITDA downgrades from project cost recognition," says Citi, which still sees upside risk to consensus FY 2025 EBITDA margins forecasts, as headcount is slowing.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0025 GMT - Rio Tinto, the world's No. 2 miner by value, views the global economy as resilient, highlighting a recovery in industrial production, robust manufacturing growth in China and an improving outlook for the U.S. economy. "Geopolitical tensions and monetary policy settings remain near-term global economic risks," it says in a quarterly operations report. The eurozone economic outlook also remains uncertain due to uneven growth, the miner adds, with Germany continuing to lag. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0016 GMT - Hub24's 4Q FY 2024 update was positive on balance, with a key positive being that the EQT migration is progressing as planned, say RBC analysts. One highlight they see is Hub24's expectation of A$5 billion of funds under administration to be transitioned, up from A$4 billion, with the remainder to land in 1H FY 2025. At the same time, RBC says net inflows for 4Q came in above RBC and market expectations, while financial adviser growth remained solid, although moderating slightly from other quarters. RBC reckons FY 2025 guidance now looks conservative, given the increased scope of the EQT migration. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0012 GMT - Rio Tinto's 2Q iron-ore shipments were lower than Citi expected, because of rail delays, although they were broadly in-line with consensus expectations, Citi analyst Paul McTaggart says in a note. He had estimated 2Q Pilbara iron-ore shipments a tad above 84.0 million tons, versus the 80.3 million tons the miner actually shipped. Rio Tinto's 2Q production of other commodities was also mixed versus Citi's expectations. The miner produced more aluminum, bauxite and diamonds than McTaggart had estimated, but less alumina, mined copper and titanium dioxide feedstock. Rio Tinto is down 1.9% early in Sydney at A$117.52. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0010 GMT - Computershare's strong balance sheet and capital markets recovery are appealing, say Morgan Stanley analysts in a note. They say these attributes give the Australian stock transfer company near-term M&A and buyback options. Still, MS moves its margin income forecast lower, seeing that it could become a headwind in FY 2025, but reckons Computershare can deliver on 9% earnings per share growth. This is, MS adds, as it trades at near recent lows of around 14 times FY 2025 price-earnings ratio. MS cuts the company's target price 1% to A$29.40. Shares were last up 0.2% to A$26.24.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2351 GMT - Hub24 has produced another positive underlying net flows update for 4Q FY 2024, say Wilsons Advisory analysts in a note, highlighting it was A$3.2 billion which was a "comfortable" 5% ahead of Wilsons' estimates. Still, they point out significantly stronger than expected gross inflows of A$6.4 billion were offset by somewhat commensurable strong gross outflows. "With market movement positive over the half and at 2Q, we, and the market, should assume some downward pressure here given the lack of sensitivity of cash to market gains," says Wilsons.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2330 GMT -- Wilsons downgrades Aussie Broadband to market weight, from overweight, after maiden FY 2025 earnings guidance fell short of its hopes. Aussie Broadband set Ebitda expectations in a A$125 million-A$135 million range, including a A$10 million start-up investment in its new Buddy broadband product. "Our forecast was A$156 million, 20% above the midpoint of A$130 million (including Buddy expenditure), but is now A$131 million," analyst Ross Barrows says in a note. The decision to downgrade Aussie Broadband partly reflects a worry that the cost to build a brand may prove to be more expensive, and take longer, than initially thought, Wilsons says. Aussie Broadband ended Monday at A$3.07. (david.winning@wsj.com)

2325 GMT - While Bell Potter was pleased to see Nanosonics's 2H revenue rebound, it considers the global growth rate to be underwhelming. Nanosonics expects to report FY 2024 revenue of around A$170 million, up 2% on FY 2023 and at the top end of an earlier guidance range of A$164 million-A$171 million. Nanosonics said new units of Trophon--its system that enables doctors to disinfect ultrasound probes and kill human papilloma virus, or HPV, particles--installed in the U.S. rose 28% in 2H, versus 1H. Analyst John Hester says FY 2025 consensus revenue estimates of A$188 million look about right. "Hence growth outlook is underwhelming and we believe it will be difficult for the company to issue more aggressive guidance," he says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2321 GMT - Macquarie is likely to maintain its FY 2025 guidance at its upcoming AGM, which also provides a 1Q FY 2025 update and commentary, says Jefferies analyst Matthew Wilson in a note. He reckons that while financial markets activity is steadily recovering, renewable economics appear to be improving and long volatility positioning should assist, "it is still early days to be certain of upgrades." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2305 GMT - Launching a challenger brand to utilize Aussie Broadband's fixed cost base makes plenty of sense to Jefferies, but start-up losses just add to existing headwinds. Aussie Broadband expects to invest A$10 million in Buddy across FY 2025, including marketing and brand-building efforts. Analyst John Campbell sees the initial Buddy losses adding more negatives "to a story beset by issues (Origin loss, the fog of Symbio, Business subs torpor)." Also, the midpoint of Aussie Broadband's maiden FY 2025 Ebitda guidance range was a 12% miss to Jefferies's estimate even when Buddy costs were excluded. Jefferies cuts its price target by 17%, to A$3.10/share. Aussie Broadband ended Monday at A$3.07. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2257 GMT - CBA is priced "well beyond perfection," and is now earning more from deposits than home loans, says Jefferies analyst Matthew Wilson in a note. The investment bank says it's 1% below consensus on core profit, ahead of the Australian major lender's FY result in August. On home loans, Jefferies says CBA is tracking back to close to wider system growth, having only lost 5 basis points of home loan share in five months to May. However, the investment bank notes, CBA has lost 53 bps of deposit share. It has an underperform call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2249 GMT - Core profits at Australian banks remain weak, but capital management potential from strong buffers may prompt investor interest, Jefferies analyst Matthew Wilson says in a note. Ahead of the upcoming reporting season, Jefferies sees Aussie lenders are still experiencing continued net interest margin erosion, but this is at a moderating pace, the investment bank adds. At the same time, bad debts are creeping higher, even as balance sheets remain strong.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0603 GMT - Filo's copper project on the Chile-Argentina border "has the grade and scale to attract majors" such as BHP, Jefferies analysts say in a note. Their remarks follow a Bloomberg report that said Lundin Mining reached out to BHP about a joint effort to acquire TSX-listed Filo. BHP has a roughly 6% stake in Filo and has been seeking to add to its copper business, including with a failed tilt at rival Anglo American. "We believe LUN is prompting BHP to make a decision about its commitment to the Filo del Sol project," the Jefferies analysts say. Still, "other partners could emerge," they add. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0527 GMT - The suspension of BHP's Nickel West operations may put some cost pressure on--or at least introduce some ramp-up complications for--rare-earths company Lynas, which sources sulfuric acid from the mining giant's nickel business, says Citi analyst Samuel Schubert. It also "brings into question if LYC will consider building its own chemical plant," Schubert says in a note. He reiterates a sell call on Lynas. Citi's target on the stock is A$5.30. While Lynas could enjoy some benefits from its plans to further separate heavy rare earths at its Malaysia facility, rare earths prices remain depressed and consensus earnings are likely to be downgraded, Schubert says. Lynas is down 0.6% at A$6.36. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 16, 2024 01:00 ET (05:00 GMT)