0435 GMT - Consensus expectations for how much miners BHP and Glencore will pay out to shareholders this results season seem too high, while estimates for Anglo American look too low, according to UBS analysts. The bank's analysts expect BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo and Glencore to report combined capital returns of roughly US$8 billion alongside their upcoming profit numbers, down from a payout around US$9 billion last reporting period. BHP, the world's biggest miner by value, is expected to be conservative with its payout as its capex will rise in FY 2025 and 2026, its net debt is high, and it is seeking more copper exposure via dealmaking. UBS forecasts a BHP dividend of US$0.69/share, versus Visible Alpha consensus for US$0.77. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0344 GMT - Investors are closely watching whether Rio Tinto can keep to development schedules on its Australian iron-ore projects, says Morgans analyst Adrian Prendergast. He fears that time lines are tight and the approval environment in the Pilbara is challenging. "We see potential for delivery of these new mines (including Western Range in 2025) to slip, leading us to trim our forecasts for CY25 to 326 million tons" versus Visible Alpha consensus of 332 million tons. He pares Morgans' target on Rio to A$130, from A$132, but upgrades its rating to add from hold saying there's "attractive value on offer." Rio Tinto is up 0.7% in Sydney at A$117.66. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0322 GMT - The final approvals for Rio Tinto's Simandou iron-ore project in Guinea provide confidence it will start producing iron ore there next year as planned, say Macquarie analysts. However, the analysts reckon it will take the company and its partners longer than they say to ramp up the operation. The analysts say they have a conservative forecast of more than 60 months to ramp up production, versus Rio Tinto's guide of 30 months. "We believe the market would gradually price in the additional high-grade, low-costs iron ore supply from West Africa and [it] could weigh on iron ore market sentiment," they say in a note. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0311 GMT - It's time to buy steelmaker BlueScope again, according to Citi analyst Paul McTaggart, who says he's looking past near-term earnings weakness and likely consensus downgrades to what should soon be a nadir in U.S. steel prices. Citi's recommendation on the stock is upgraded to buy, from neutral, although its target is trimmed to A$23.70 from A$24.00. "We think U.S. steel prices are now near their lows with a post northern summer uptick expected and with U.S. monetary conditions set to turn expansionary," McTaggart says. BlueScope is up 3.2% at A$21.525. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0252 GMT - The West Musgrave project may be key to making BHP's nickel operations viable in the long run, UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw says in a note. He expects BHP will reset and restart its nickel operations, helped by improving market conditions later this decade, but says the miner needs to make the business cost-competitive first. "Otherwise, we believe a closure or a sale is most likely," he says. West Musgrave, acquired in BHP's acquisition of Oz Minerals, could give it extra nickel to displace third-party feedstock from FY 2029, and comes with a copper sweetener, says Shaw. Given nickel is a small part of BHP's business, the miner will likely "need high conviction to sanction" a restart, he says. UBS keeps a neutral rating and A$44 target on BHP, which is up 0.1% at A$43.11. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0234 GMT - Strong equities markets were the main driver of Australian pension funds' better-than expected FY 2024 results, says researcher Chant West in an update. International shares were the key catalysts, with nearly all major asset classes in positive territory over the year, CW senior investment research manager Mano Mohankumar says. Unlisted property was the exception, hurt mainly by downward revaluations in the office sector, he says. "While the loss for unlisted property over FY 2024 is likely to be in the high single digits on average, we estimate that unlisted infrastructure and private equity finished the year with gains in the 5% to 7% range," Mohankumar says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0222 GMT - BHP's metallurgical-coal production guidance for FY 2025 is underwhelming, Jefferies analysts say in a note. The miner's coal volumes are expected to decline sharply due to the sale of the Daunia and Blackwater mines and elevated strip ratios, and volumes are expected to remain low for several years, the analysts say. "The outlook is not positive." The analysts reiterate a buy call on BHP but say they expect some near-term volatility in the shares. The stock is down 0.2% at A$43.01. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0213 GMT - BHP's disclosure for 2H one-time items was "generally positive," says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker, pointing to lower-than-expected capex and a positive working capital adjustment. All FY guidance was met, but "price realization was seen to be marginally lower, with iron-ore pricing missed despite record lump sales," Peker adds. RBC has a sector perform rating and a A$44.00 target on BHP, which is down 0.3% at A$42.97. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0206 GMT - Despite sentiment and momentum driving stocks on the S&P/ASX 200 higher, UBS is keeping its year-end target steady at 8000 ahead as the investment bank awaits company results through August, analyst Richard Schellbach says in a note. Australia's benchmark index broke through UBS's 8000 target on Monday. "Bolstering the support for equities is the fact that although both cash and bond yields have risen over the last four years, they don't offer the attractive pull they once did have against stocks," says UBS. Still, it reckons profit margins remain a focal point for investors. Profit margins have now largely normalized and may be about to settle, it says. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0133 GMT - Investment fund flows in Australia have improved, in line with market direction, say Morgans analysts Scott Murdoch and Jared Gelsomino in a note. They see that specialist platform companies delivered 4Q FY 2024 inflows which were between 20%-50% above the prior year, while fund manager GQG's June quarter materially stepped up. From this, GQG remains Morgans preferred stock in the "market-leveraged" financial basket at its current entry points. Morgans sees the strongest longer-term sustainable/structural growth from the platforms (Hub24, Netwealth). For Pinnacle, multi-affiliate investment management company, Morgans sees a "solid earnings step-up" in FY 2025, with the potential of acquisitions.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0114 GMT - Praemium's 4Q FY 2024 update came in below RBC's expectations with higher than expected net outflows from the Powerwrap business, say its analysts in a note. Praemium management flagged that they expect outflows to continue for the next six months, which RBC says likely implies around A$500 million of outflows for PowerWrap in 1H FY 2025."Management believes over the long-term inflows should ameliorate the negative impact of transition outflows which is consistent with our view," says RBC, which has a negative call on the wealth management platform's stock.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0036 GMT - Buy-now-pay-later provider Zip's capital raising makes a lot of sense to Ord Minnett. That's because it eliminates around A$150 million of expensive debt and will save Zip some A$22.5 million of interest. It also removes the overhang of the exit fee associated with the loan. Analyst Phillipâ?<â?<â?< Chippindale>

0027 GMT - Uncertainty over the cost of Cooper Energy's future projects is helping to keep Bell Potter at hold on its stock. Cooper will start generating free cash flow in FY 2025 after completing the decommissioning of the BMG oil field. However, Cooper's next major capital program--the East Coast Supply Project--looms. The project, designed to lift output in the Otway Basin, is set to begin in FY 2026 and will put pressure on Cooper's balance sheet again, analyst Stuart Howe says in a note. "Cooper is yet to clearly guide on the capital costs of this expansion, adding uncertainty to the company's medium-term free cash flow and therefore value," Bell Potter says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0027 GMT - Uncertainty over the cost of Cooper Energy's future projects is helping to keep Bell Potter at hold on its stock. Cooper will start generating free cash flow in FY 2025 after completing the decommissioning of the BMG oil field. However, Cooper's next major capital program--the East Coast Supply Project--looms. The project, designed to lift output in the Otway Basin, is set to begin in FY 2026 and will put pressure on Cooper's balance sheet again, analyst Stuart Howe says in a note. "Cooper is yet to clearly guide on the capital costs of this expansion, adding uncertainty to the company's medium-term free cash flow and therefore value," Bell Potter says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

021 GMT - Alkane Resources likely needs to partner with a "big brother" to get its Boda-Kaiser copper-gold project into development, says Euroz Hartleys. A scoping study estimated it would cost A$1.78 billion to develop an operation processing 20 million tons of ore annually. "Both higher gold and copper prices than we currently forecast and a project partnership with a counterparty with deeper pockets look to be required for Boda to be sanctioned," says analyst Steven Clark. "Despite these pre-requisites, we remain positive on the optionality provided by Boda at little to no cost at Alkane's currently beaten up valuation." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0012 GMT - AIC Mines' production guidance for FY 2025 is softer than Ord Minnett expected, but may reflect some conservatism on the part of the base metals miner's management. AIC Mines expects to produce 12,500 tons of copper across the year, below Ord Minnett's forecast of 13,300 tons. The cost outlook also disappointed at A$5.25/lb in FY 2025 versus the bank's A$4.50/lb expectation. "We acknowledge that our optimism may have crept up considering the FY 2024 performance (13,400 tons copper at A$5.10/lb) and we have better aligned our expectations with FY 2025 guidance as a result," analyst Paul Kaner says. Still, he's mindful that AIC Mines has traditionally been conservative with its guidance. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0010 GMT - BHP ended its FY 2024 strongly, beating Citi's 4Q production estimates across all key divisions, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart. The miner's output guidance for FY 2025 is largely as expected, meaning it is "relatively flat: copper up, iron ore flat and coal down," McTaggart says. Citi has a buy rating and A$48.50 target on BHP, which is down 0.9% early in Sydney at A$42.69. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2329 GMT - Hub24's 4Q FY 2024 underlying net flows were a June quarter record, reflecting strong momentum and asset-retention, says Bell Potter analyst Hayden Nicholson in a note. The Australian wealth management platform company has maintained its FY 2025 funds under administration target of between A$92 billion-A$100 billion, which BP reckons looks more than achievable and reiterates its buy recommendation. "Hub24 looks cheap relative to other high growth specialist platforms and the outlook for principal net flows should underpin incremental earnings growth," says BP. Hub24's large exposure to pension assets is a key positive. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2308 GMT - CBA's upcoming FY 2024 results are unlikely to contain anything "untoward" that might trigger a de-rating, but there could be business lending asset quality risks building on the horizon, says E&P analyst Azib Khan in a note. This, E&P, reckons could pose a risk to CBA's dividend outlook and also raises questions about whether CBA should continue to grow its SME loan book strongly. While Australian major banks are generally priced to perfection, Khan thinks CBA is priced to "over-perfection," pointing out the Australian lender's lower dividend yield compared to rivals, which he says is "the only one below the cash rate." (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0648 GMT - Hub24's 4Q FY 2024 funds under administration and EQT inflows missed UBS forecasts, say its analysts in a note. "The miss on 4Q FUA presents a lower-than-expected base generating admin revenues from 2H FY 2024 onwards," says UBS, which adds that there was a decline in average cash allocation from the previous half. This prompts the investment bank to think its platform segment revenue growth forecast of 27% may be too optimistic. Still, organic inflows were ahead of the investment bank's forecasts, with it noting that Hub24's EQT mandate has been expanded. UBS keeps its neutral rating. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0637 GMT - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% to 7999.3, with materials stocks proving to be a drag on the market. That sector led the losses, closing 0.9% lower. BHP fell 1.4%, while the world's second-biggest miner by market value, Rio Tinto, lost 2.5%. It said it got the approvals to start developing a huge iron-ore project in Africa. IGO closed 0.7% lower after telling the market it expected an impairment of its exploration assets in FY 2024. Bellevue Gold was the session's worst performer following its 4Q cash-flow report, falling 3.4%. Lifestyle Communities reversed Monday's losses to be the day's best stock, rising 5.5%. For the major banks, CBA and ANZ shed 0.2% each, while Westpac gained 0.3% and NAB added 0.4%. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 17, 2024 01:00 ET (05:00 GMT)