0119 GMT - Whitehaven's 4Q coal production is in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, but sales are about 15% softer than expected because of logistics issues and a build up of stockpiles, the broker says in a client note. The coal miner's net debt, at A$1.3 billion, is also slightly higher than the broker's estimate of A$1.2 billion, likely in part due to the lower sales volumes, the broker says. Ord Minnett has a buy rating and A$10.30 target on the stock, which is down 1.1% at A$8.335. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0102 GMT - The accolades handed to AMP's latest retirement product have yet to lead to significant net inflows, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway says. He sees the performance of the MyNorth Lifetime product as a key potential swing factor for the stock. Pittaway writes in a note to clients that advisers have talked about the platform's appeal, but that there have been no concrete benefits despite improving lead indicators and AMP's restructured sales force. Citi keeps its A$1.25 target price and buy rating on the stock, flagging the A$415 million in surplus capital on AMP's books and the likely restoration of an ongoing dividend policy. Shares are down 0.4% at A$1.145. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0004 GMT - Sales volumes for Mirvac and Stockland likely improved in 4Q, says Morgan Stanley, but the outlook remains clouded by the potential for another interest-rate hike. The bank, citing data from Australia's Housing Industry Association, expects net sales by Stockland of 1,200-1,300 residential lots in 4Q, versus 1,242 in 3Q, and 300-350 lots by Mirvac compared to 304 in 3Q. "However, this positive trend could be short-lived given the potential for further rate hikes, which could delay any meaningful recovery in volumes and prompt the developers to guide to a more conservative settlement range for FY 2025," analyst Lauren A. Berry says. Morgan Stanley is tipping the RBA to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on Aug. 6. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2355 GMT - UBS upgrades its FY 2025 earnings forecasts for engineering contractor NRW Holdings, citing improved earnings momentum in its most recent half. Analyst Evan Karatzas now expects FY 2025 Ebita of A$204 million, which is above consensus forecasts for A$197 million and represents 9% growth on year. Earnings growth will be largely driven by NRW's Civil unit and the Minerals, Energy & Technologies business, UBS says. "Given the demand backdrop in NRW's end markets remains strong, the key variable will be project execution or margin delivery," UBS says. "We are forecasting continued Ebita margin improvement across FY 2025/26 to 6.7% and 6.8% (versus FY 2024 6.5%), although we note this remains well below pre-Covid levels of circa 7.0%-8.0%." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2355 GMT - Life360 could raise its annual earnings guidance when the location-tracking provider reports its 1H results next month, Bell Potter analyst Chris Savage reckons. He tells clients in a note that with Life360 having recently disclosed an approximate number of paying users, investors will be more focused on revenue and Ebitda. He thinks that Life360 will eventually report US$7.8 million in 2024 advertising revenue, but sees most of that coming in 2H. It will probably hold its revenue guidance, but could upgrade its earnings outlook, he says. Bell Potter lifts its target price by 7.0% to A$19.00, rolling forward its valuation to 2025. It keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is at A$16.42 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2349 GMT - Santos isn't likely to include a share buyback in its upcoming capital return, with implications for its EPS trajectory, says UBS. "We cut 2024-26 EPS by 5-9% due to now modelling all of Santos's capital return is paid in base dividends only from 41% of free cash flow (ex growth) each half," analyst Tom Allen says in a note. UBS had previously assumed an equal split between base dividends and a buyback. "We also trim near-term production from the Cooper basin and PNG LNG given Hides' production is moderating," says UBS, which rates Santos a buy. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2348 GMT - Accent Group gets a new bull at Wilsons amid approval at the Australian shoe and fashion retailer's proactive approach to underperforming stores. Analyst Tom Camilleri tells clients in a note that Accent's decision to close 17 Glue-branded stores will help improve earnings margins, and he likes management's decision to continually review weaker stores. Accent's FY24 Ebit forecast is about 13% stronger than anticipated by Camilleri, who says improved like-for-like sales late in 2H point to strong execution and consumer resilience. Wilsons raises target price 19% to A$2.50 and lifts its recommendation to overweight from marketweight. Shares are at A$2.16 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2342 GMT - Domino's Pizza Enterprises' longer-term growth target remains the same, just much further away than previously hoped, Morgans analyst Alexander Mees says. He tells clients in a note that the Australia-listed fast-food franchiser has conceded what analysts had already concluded, which is that it won't achieve its ambition of 7,100 stores in existing markets by 2033. Mees thinks that Domino's won't hit that mark until closer to 2040. He says that the company's decision to close at least 100 underperforming stores should be a positive, but is disappointed at the sluggish growth in store numbers elsewhere. Morgans cuts its target price 18% to A$37.00 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is at A$33.12 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2323 GMT - Zip may be taking advantage of the recent rise in its share price to retire its remaining corporate debt, Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel reckons. Samuel tells clients in a note that the Australian buy-now-pay-later provider's capital raising results in significant dilution for existing shareholders. He observes that the cost of retaining the debt through its remaining term would have been about the same as the exit fee Zip had to pay, but concedes that the additional balance-sheet flexibility provides sufficient rationale. Jefferies lifts its target price 52%, to A$1.95, and keeps a "hold" rating on the stock, which is at A$1.785 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2322 GMT - Santos remains on the screens of potential bidders, reckons Macquarie, which thinks a deal would need to be done at more than A$10.00/share. That would represent a minimum 25% premium to Santos's closing share price of A$8.00 on Thursday. "Potential acquirers will be watching the steady de-risking of growth projects and mindful of the coming cash inflection," says Macquarie. It thinks sales of stakes in Santos's Alaska assets, the Dorado oil field in Western Australia and other assets in that state could "distill Santos's value increasingly to its core LNG assets (and enhance appeal)." Macquarie retains an "outperform" call on Santos. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 19, 2024 01:11 ET (05:11 GMT)