Pinned straw:
Don't usually like writing about gold stocks now but I'll make an exception here because of the similarity between Karlawinda (CMM) and Lady Jane
Lady Jane (Magnetic):
Karlawinda (CMM)
I wouldn't be surprised if Lady Jane turns out to be same as Karlawinda.
31-July-2024: MAU, Magnetic Resources, which I have a small RL position in, has popped about +14% today, likely because of this report sent out this morning by "East Coast Research", which is associated with SIV - Shares In Value - a paysite.
Plain Text Link: https://www.sharesinvalue.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Magnetic-Resources-ECR-Initial-Coverage-Report-.pdf
Update: MAU was up +14% just before I wrote that, a little lower now, but still up over +10%, they've been up to $1.53 already this morning, which was +18.6% above yesterday's closing price (of $1.29). I just sold half of my MAU position for a 20% profit. That's $1K profit (it was a small position) - which pays for the groceries this week.
Not only similarities to Karlawinda @edgescape but look how close the project is to Genesis' (GMD's) Mt Morgans Mill at Laverton:
MAU aren't big on updating their website regularly - still using that "Dacian" reference there... Dacian is owned by Genesis now of course - Dacian was delisted in November but had been controlled by Genesis for over 12 months before that - then GMD moved to compulsory acquisition of the less than 10% they didn't already own (of Dacian) in October/November last year.
I had to look GSM up - I've probably heard of them previously but they didn't ring a bell tonight. Here's their website: https://goldenstatemining.com.au/
GSM's market cap is $3.3m, and MAU is now more than 100 times bigger than that now with a M/cap of $309.6m according to the ASX website tonight.
GMD (who own Dacian) have a $2.4 Billion (with a "B", not an "M") market cap.
The MoM poddy discussed both GMD on Friday here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5o2af96C-M&t=1679s
And MAU here: https://youtu.be/e5o2af96C-M?t=1843 which was part of the GMD discussion, in terms of Magnetic being a good M&A target for Genesis in terms of Magnetic's projects and their tenements' close proximity to Genesis' Laverton (Mt Morgans) Mill - and Magnetic's gold being high grade.
I'm probably going to buy some MAU and some MEK (Meeka Metals) with money that I can afford to lose - to keep me focussed on them, and to give me some optionality around any CRs they do that are extended to ordinary shareholders (rather than the cheaper placement option) - but I do note that the smart company managements tend to release positive news and then call a trading halt after the share price spikes up on that good news, and THEN do a capital raise at a "discount" - which often just takes them back to where they were trading at the previous week, so perhaps buying on-market when the price dips down on no news is a better option.
But like I say, only with money I can afford to lose, so smaller position sizing, and not here on SM, coz if they don't get any M&A attention, these small gold explorers and project developers can take years to gain any real traction in terms of actually building or buying something that's going to make them any money - i.e. a gold mill, or a mine that feeds ore to an existing mill (toll treating perhaps by another company - there are other mills in the area).
But whether Trump wins or whoever the Dems replace Biden with wins the US Presidency later this year, I'd expect a fair whack of chaos - which will be good for gold. I'd much prefer a Dems win myself (because Trump is primarily motivated by self interest and revenge - and holding onto power, which will involve changing the rules to suit himself and stacking every government department with MAGA loyalists) however a Democrat win would actually cause more chaos because Trump will not accept defeat, and will make more claims of a second "stolen election" and incite more violence and division and further undermine any remaining faith in democracy and the rule of law, but let's not get political here...
I can't see gold having a huge drop either way. But predicting gold prices is, as we have previously established, a total waste of time, so let's put it this way: I'm looking at which companies out there could be the next decent Aussie gold producers in a few years time, or get acquired in the meantime by an existing producer. And Magnetic and Meeka (MAU and MEK) are looking interesting to me right now.
I had been interested in M2M (Mt Malcolm Mines) - but I think Ral might just buy them from the Administrators once they go into VA - so I don't think buying shares in them makes much sense right now - they're very, very small, the capital raises lately have been thousands of dollars, not millions, so that's obviously just to keep the lights on. If they do get any further drilling done they'll probably be paying for it by issuing further shares - again.
Saturn Metals' Apollo Hill project remains on my radar, because they have a lot of gold, relatively close to Leonora, and near surface, so open pitable. However I'm not convinced that STN's management have shareholders' interests top of mind. The gold is there, but it's all low grade, and some of the stuff that the other companies are finding has more gold in each tonne of ore, so either STN are dragging their heels waiting for a takeover offer - that may never come - or they are going to have to raise a sh!tload of money to build a mill for a low grade gold mine.
Mind you, as long as the gold price remains elevated, Apollo Hill, if and when it gets built will likely be profitable, because of the amount of gold and the proximity to surface (shallow), and the chemistry to extract it seems relatively straightforward, however it's not going to be the most exciting ride to be on to get from here to there, IMO. Watching paint dry might be more fun.
And they're all getting paid in the meantime, so what's the rush?
Another one that doesn't bother updating their website. Gwalia owned by St Barbara? No. Dacian? No. Anyway, despite the fact that the mine owner tags are out of date, the proximity to existing projects is clear.
Here's M2M's tenements:
I don't expect them to update their website - they struggle to buy coffee most days.
Nice tenements, quite a few high grade gold hits in their drilling, but M2M are broke as a stick that's been through a chipper.
They'll be acquired by somebody, but the question is whether or not that is before or after they go into VA.
That'll do for tonight.
Like I said, MEK and MAU are looking interesting. Still working through their management credibility and track records, but I haven't seen any red flags yet. And they both might be worth a coupla K just to keep me interested.
Yesterday - Saturday 20th July 2024 - the MoM poddy was a JD interview with John Forwood (CIO at Lowell Resource Fund) and Hedley Widdup (CEO at Lion Selection) on junior mining, and Saturn Metals came up, one of the companies I mentioned in my previous post here in this thread. It turns out that both Lowell Resource Fund and Lion Selection Group (LSX.asx) hold Saturn (STN) - in Lion's case they are the second largest holders with 19.42% of STN. STN's largest holder is the Canadian company Dundee Corporation (19.99%). Wythenshawe Pty Ltd and associates is at #3 with 9.86% - Wythenshawe is the corporate trustee (manager) of the Wythenshawe Foundation, a charitable trust set up by Joshua Pitt in 2004 (source: https://www.businessnews.com.au/Company/Wythenshawe-Foundation).
Joshua Pitt is a geologist with extensive exploration experience over more than forty years, and has been a director of a number of exploration and mining companies in Australia. He was appointed a NED of Traka in July 2003 and assumed the position of non-executive chairman in December 2019. He is the executive chairman of both Hampton Hill Mining NL and Red Hill Minerals Limited (appointed a director in June 2005 and chairman in December 2019). He has also held the position of NED of Red Metal Limited since July 2003.
Joshua Pitt's Wythenshawe also show up along with Forwood's Lowell Resource Fund on this November 2021 top 20 holders list for Hamelin Gold (HMG): https://hamelingold.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Top-20-Holders.pdf
HMG's largest shareholders are currently listed as SLR (Silver Lake Resources - who recently merged with Red 5 Mining - RED - so SLR has been removed from the ASX but RED continues) and Gold Fields Ltd - with 14.92% of HMG each, unless it's the same 14.92% held through a JV between SLR and Gold Fields. Gold Fields is a company that is still listed as being HQ'd in Johannesburg, South Africa (and also exchange-listed in the US), although most of their assets are now ex-Africa, including a number of Australian gold assets that include half of the Gruyere gold mine in the WA goldfields (NE of Kal) where Gold Fields are the operators and ASX-listed Gold Road (GOR) own the other half.
Anyway, backing out of that rabbithole, and back to STN - the poddy yesterday discusses why the Lowell Resource Fund and Lion Selection Group are both shareholders of Saturn Metals here: https://youtu.be/a-JsNcEqi7o?t=2666
Interestingly, while both fundies admit it's low grade ore there at Apollo Hill, Hedley discusses it in terms of OVM or ounces (of gold) per vertical metre, and suggests that Apollo Hill appears to compare favourably with mines like Gruyere at this point in time. He suggests that with the low strip ratio, the dollar cost of digging up the ore and putting it on a heap to process (via heap leaching) is low, which is what I was suggesting yesterday in my post (before I watched this particular podcast) - that it would be the low costs that would make this project economic - as long as the gold price holds up at these elevated levels.
Hedley also suggests that the North American ownership of a good percentage of STN is due to global heap leaching being much more common in the Northern hemisphere and not as well understood or considered desirable down here in Australia where CIL plants are the norm (various variations of Carbon In Leach circuits are far more common here with gold extraction at a decent scale).
John adds that there is further exploration upside for STN because they've recently obtained clearances to drill further along strike on salt lakes and getting access, particularly heritage clearance, has taken some time to achieve and he says, "there are some beautiful looking geophysical targets there that have been crying out to be drilled" - and STN are onto that now.
Hedley from Lion Selection gave big wraps for Saturn Metals' Management, so perhaps I'm completely wrong about them; perhaps they've been far more honest with the market than I have given them credit for, and they've been steadily building out this deposit into something that's worth more and will provide shareholders with better TSRs - including taking the time to get this heritage clearance to drill these salt lakes that surround the Apollo Hill project - those being the clearances that they've only just received in the past couple of weeks.
Interesting! I may buy a small position in STN as well as MAU and MEK.
Image source: https://saturnmetals.com.au/projects/apollo-hill/
Yes @edgescape I also have a smallish (less than $10K) position in MAU now, since late last week, plus MEK & STN, and I added KIN today as well - another $5K - these are all smallish positions, however I expect to make money on at least 1 out of 4, let's see (a) if those odds are around the mark, and (b) if so, will the profit on the "good" one outweigh the losses on the others. I find that having a few K in these smaller "roll the dice" plays is a great way of maintaining focus, rather than just having them on a watchlist with 30 other companies. Have a look at this:
Source: https://www.kinmining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/240730-Jun-24-Quarterly-Activities-Report.pdf [today: 30-July-2024]
The light tan brown is all Genesis (GMD) - the orange is KIN, and the dark red/maroon is tenements subject to a JV between KIN and G88 - Golden Mile Resources, who have a 1 cent share price and a $4 mil market cap, so they're tiny. KIN's m/cap is around $70m, so a bit better.
You can see Saturn Metals' >1.8Moz Apollo Hill gold project there, and I'm exposed to them currently for drilling upside now that they've started drilling the salt lakes around Apollo Hill to see how far the gold extends (only recently got approvals to drill on those dry salt lakes), however I'm thinking Genesis aren't interested in anything as low grade as Apollo Hill - which is likely to become a standalone Heap Leach gold project, so I'm not looking at STN in terms of an M&A target, more for drilling results upside, particularly as they have high fundie/insto ownership, including a good chunk owned by North American insto's who are more comfortable with larger scale heap leach operations than perhaps we are down here in Oz.
And in terms of KIN, remember that Genesis bought the two KIN tenements that they most wanted (Bruno-Lewis and Raeside) in Feb of this year (2024), so there is an argument that what KIN are left with is what Genesis do NOT want - however KIN are pressing ahead with firming up Cardinia, and they're currently acquiring PNX Metals (ASX: PNX, m/cap $24m) so that makes them interesting also. Here's some other random excerpts from today's KIN June 2024 Quarterly Report (link above):
Interesting that they've chosen to use PPM instead of g/t Au.
This isn't anything major by any stretch, but it could turn into something, and KIN have good form for proving up deposits and then selling them off at a nice markup.
The two points there are that they appear to be well funded - with $83m in cash and GMD shares (which have risen nicely since they received them as part payment for Bruno-Lewis and Raeside in Feb/March), however the orange flag is the low exploration budget for the remainder of this calendar year (5 months) - $3m won't get them too far I wouldn't have thought - I'd like to see them put some more money into drilling to be honest. They are, after all, an explorer, so EXPLORE !!
At least they will be doing some drilling - whereas M2M - who I do not hold - are likely still struggling to buy their own coffees in West Perth each morning.
Back to MAU - they have ground around Genesis' Laverton tenements, so if Ral decides to try to max out (fill up) their Mt Morgans Mill (at Laverton), MAU could become a nice bolt-on acquisition, particularly with their decently high grades that they are finding - coz higher grades does tend to reduce your costs per ounce produced, so more bang for your bucks.
MAU, @ $330m (market cap), is no minnow, certainly big enough to be noticed by the larger players.
And their gold prospects are all around Laverton and Leonora so they're certainly on the same page as GMD.
The proximity of Lady Julie and Hawks Nest to GMD's Mt Morgans Mill is very positive.
And they've certainly done a lot of drilling and those projects are shaping up quite nicely:
There's value there - but how much, and to whom, I don't know, time will tell. I've got a small position now, so I'm watching.
Yesterday I sold out of CMM at a very small profit - in my SMSF - only held them for a few days - to buy some Ramelius (RMS) after reading their quarterly and their FY25 Production and cost guidance, which was impressive:
RMS-FY25-Gold-Production-and-AISC-Guidance-29-July-2025.PDF
Have a look at the grades of gold they are finding across their tenements - open the following link and look at page 1:
RMS-June-Qtr-2024-Activities-Report.PDF
Plain text link: https://www.rameliusresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/bsk-pdf-manager/2024/07/XXXXX-ASX-RELEASE-Jun-2024-Quarterly-Activities-Report-FINAL-FINAL.pdf
See also:
RMS-June 2024 Quarterly and FY25 Guidance presentation (July 29th 2024)
And: RMS-July 2024 - Noosa Mining Conference Presentation
Also: https://www.rameliusresources.com.au/broker-coverage/ - they provide links through to broker reports and updates - some work, some don't.
RMS is looking like one of the better mid-tier Aussie gold miners at this point. Lower Cost, decent production (FY25 Guidance of 285 Koz at between A$1,500 and A$1,700 AISC) - Mt Magnet reported an AISC of just A$982/oz for the June Quarter! And the gold price is up over A$3,600/oz again, so it's no wonder they're accumulating so much cash - June 30th cash & gold of A$446.6M (Mar 2024 Qtr: A$407.1M) - with operating cash flow of A$162.8M and an associated underlying free cash flow of A$137.3M, the best on record for them. They also own 17.94% of Spartan Resources (SPR) whose SP has damn near gone vertical recently - last Wednesday SPR's SP rose +23.62% and then rose another +6.5% on Thursday - I'm not looking to pay over $1/share for SPR, but I'm happy to have that exposure through a quality gold miner like RMS.
For context - RMS is a $2.2 Billion company and SPR is a $1.4 Billion company, so RMS is bigger and a lot better, but look cheaper to me than SPR for what each of them is.
Despite having almost half a Billion ($446 million) in cash and gold plus $250 million worth of SPR shares, and no net debt, RMS recently (on 2nd July) entered into a Syndicated Facility Agreement (SFA) for a revolving corporate facility for A$175M for a four-year term with the option to extend by a further year replacing the A$100M facility that expired upon execution of this SFA. So they appear to have some M&A in their sights. Let's hope they buy wisely, and do not overpay. They have demonstrated good discipline with M&A in recent years - not being prepared to chase up targets in bidding wars beyond what they considered to be a sensible price for them to pay. So far, so good. I have been in and out of RMS over the years, and I'm back in now.
Additional: Kin Mining (KIN) will soon be changing their name to “Patronus Resources Limited” as that change proposal was voted up at a recent meeting - and they'll likely change their ticker code as well - perhaps to PNX - which is the ticker code of the company they're currently acquiring (taking over) - PNX Metals. So if you read this and then can't find KIN on the ASX (or your online broker website), try searching for "Patronus" - Why the change? They said today: "The name change reflects the Company’s recent transformative transactions, which have crystallised significant value for shareholders from the Company’s substantial resource inventory at the Cardinia Gold Project, putting it in an enviable position in the junior resources space with a strong balance sheet and the ability to move forward with a range of exciting strategic opportunities."
Clear as mud?!? According to our friend Google... If you're unfamiliar, a patronus is a kind of ghostly magical guardian that a wizard or witch can summon, an anthropomorphic animal representation of your warmest emotions.
OK, glad that's all cleared up then.
Oh, it's a Harry Potter thing...
Yep, of course, just the ticket...
OK, Diggers is on this week in Kal, and Magnetic have taken the opportunity to present as well as release this:
Outstanding value demonstrated by Economic Update at LJ
Here's their D&D Presso: Investor Presentation - Diggers and Dealers
A little green island in a sea of red today:
Disc: I hold MAU shares.