Forum Topics EVS EVS Q4 FY24 Update

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

Today's announcement making me glad I've walked back my exposure to Envirosuite. Once again, it just shows how elusive any material growth is for them.

To wit;

  • Total ARR up 2.9% over the year (hit by FX, but also downsell and churn.. makes you wonder how recurring this revenue really is)
  • New ARR was an improvement on recent quarters at $2.1m, but below what they did in the pcp.
  • Churn increased a little to 4.1%


And there was also this:

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The company is also consulting to explore a range of 'strategic opportunities' with 3rd parties. Which, I presume, is code for "we are shopping ourselves around to potential acquirers" -- although it may be something else. Possibly an acquisition to help rationalise another raise? (Although given their track record of acquisitions I'd be nervous of that).

EVS is now >2% of my portfolio after I sold down a few months ago, and even after today's drop is just on par with my valuation.

I'll probably look to sell down the remaining holding at some point unless there's a material turn around. But I have lost faith in management.

mikebrisy
2 months ago

@Strawman I agree. It is never too late to sell. $EVS is a good idea. But from my perspective the execution hasn't been there for some time.

Hope over substance.

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neke86_
2 months ago

Given the repeated, energetic, and desperate 'strategic opportunities' discussion going back over several months, I'll take the other side of this as I have a few times with other companies as their holders approach exhaustion.

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Rocket6
2 months ago

@Strawman yep, agree entirely. EVS was one of my better sells over the last few years -- too many red flags re: fluffy figures, stalling growth and what ultimately appears an unsustainable business. Jason doesn't exactly inspire confidence either, reminds me of a dodgy car salesman with no substance.

If I hadn't already sold, this would be yet another signal to run for the hills. One could potentially do okay taking a contrarian view, waiting on a takeover offer, but that is out of my control. If I wanted to take a bet like that I would walk down to the local casino and stick all my money on red.

Forecasting that the annual report will be a stinker, with a disappointing second half resulting in more cash outflow. But but but 'ADJUSTED EBITDA'.... facepalm.

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wtsimis
2 months ago

Agree Gents , add to the announcement the inability fro Jason Cooper to undertake a breifing which has been custom each quarterly release.

Might not have wanted to confront some hard questions.

Surely 2.9% ARR increase are disappointing and a CEO must call this out ?????

Disc : Not Held

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lastever
a month ago

EVS effectively put a 'for sale' sign in their annual report today: "We have considered and advanced a range of corporate discussions that have contemplated full sale, as well as partial and commercially strategic investments. These types of discussions are highly sensitive and confidential, and we do not speculate on what may or may not occur.... However, in the interests of all our shareholders, particularly our longerterm holders, we have no intention of selling them out by folding to any discounted opportunistic proposal which may emerge as a result of the current low share price."

@neke86_ I think you may be onto something here.

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UlladullaDave
a month ago

When I digged around trying to work out what's going on, I thought that high interest debt they took on made more sense when it was viewed as "bridging finance" so they didn't look like desperadoes trying to get a deal done before they ran out of cash. Further to that, Waislitz being the source of the leak to the AFR led me to believe that large shareholders have said "no more cash, get a deal done."

This quote from the chairman slots into this theory (I think) in that he's basically saying they are for sale, but they won't be low balled because they have enough money to negotiate. I would read this as being a message to potential suitors rather than shareholders.

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