0339 GMT - Kogan.com's paid membership product could be a significant contributor to the Australian retailer's fiscal 2025 earnings growth, RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen writes in a note to clients. Chen sees subscriber growth as a key highlight of the online retailer's 4Q result, and thinks it is positive that Kogan added 30,000 net new members despite raising prices by 30% in April. Chen reckons that the Kogan First product could contribute at least 2.0 percentage points to the 6.7% growth in fiscal 2025 Ebitda expected by analysts. RBC has a last-published sector perform rating and A$6.00 target price on the stock, which is down 3.45% at A$4.20. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0216 GMT - GQG is Morgan Stanley's preferred play in Australian asset management as the investment bank turns more selective on the sector, given that there are few growth options across the stocks it covers. In a note, MS says it likes GQG's performance track record, organic growth trends and global distribution pipeline, pointing out that the company has an almost 30% upside to MS's A$3.75 price target. The investment bank remains underweight on Platinum and Magellan but thinks a turnaround is more likely for the latter. "We believe their turnaround will hinge on ability to tilt to inflows," MS says regarding Magellan and Platinum. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0122 GMT - The broader Australian insurance and diversified financials sectors have outperformed the ASX200 market rally of the past three months, led by the wealth-manager segment, says UBS analyst Scott Russell in a note. For a number of stocks, UBS sees room for upside surprise during the upcoming reporting season. It calls out general insurers IAG and Suncorp to impress with improved profitability and fresh capital-management initiatives, while health insurers Medibank and Nib look to have low buy-side expectations amid competition and claims inflation. Fund manager GQG could surprise on stronger fee margins and performance fees, while Perpetual could see relief if a tax ruling is favorable. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0119 GMT - JB Hi-Fi gets a new bear at UBS following its recent share-price appreciation and what the investment bank's analysts see as overexcitement for the sales potential of AI-capable computers and devices. The analysts acknowledge that JB Hi-Fi remains a quality retailer with a strong balance sheet and capable management, but warn that a share-price rise of more than 25% since the start of 2024 has left elevated stock's premium to its discretionary peers well above its historical average. UBS raises its target price 1.7% to A$60.00 but cuts its recommendation to sell from neutral. Shares are down 1.5% at A$66.28. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0107 GMT - Kogan.com's return to revenue growth in 4Q can't dispel worries at Citi over the impact of mounting competition on the Australian online retailer. Kogan's FY results were in line with expectations and analyst James Wang sees positive signs in growth of sales and users of its membership program. Yet activity indicators since the start of July paint a gloomier picture for Wang, who points out that Kogan's web traffic is down 26% on a year earlier, and usage of its app down by 36%. Citi has a last-published sell rating and A$4.80 target price on the stock, which is down 1.6% at A$4.28. The stock dropped 47% over the June quarter. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0020 GMT - Computershare is likely to focus on corporate trust businesses as it seeks the acquisitions necessary to generate EPS growth on a scale the market is looking for, Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway says. He tells clients in a note that the Australian share-registry operator has plenty of firepower, and that the performance of Computershare's Canada Corporate Trust indicates that acquisitions in other geographies could be potentially lucrative. Pittaway acknowledges that the U.S. is a more competitive market but still thinks that margins could expand with scale. Citi has a buy rating and A$30.00 target price on the stock, which is up 0.7% at A$27.69. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2353 GMT - Challenger is likely to provide normalized net profit before tax guidance for FY 2025 at its upcoming result, with Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway seeing the potential for consensus upgrades. In a note he says Citi's net profit before tax guidance estimates are around 3% above consensus and a shift in the cost base is possible. The investment bank also sees that the Australian financial company can achieve its normalized return on equity target sooner rather than later. "Markets may dictate whether this is in FY 2025 with an improved Funds Management contribution likely necessary," says Citi. It lifts its rating to neutral from sell. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2343 GMT - Capricorn Metals's decision to spend A$69.6 million on buying back 52,000 oz of its hedge book is welcomed by Bell Potter, even though its net cash position fell to A$75 million as a result. It means Capricorn Metals is now unhedged through December 2025. "In our view, this is a positive move in what we continue to see as a constructive environment for the gold price," says analyst David Coates. "Based on the spot price of A$3,482/oz at the time of the buy back and the current spot price of A$3,620/oz, Capricorn Metals is currently in a revenue enhancing position." Bell Potter retains a buy call on Capricorn Metals. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2334 GMT - Spirits companies running down bottle stocks is an ongoing risk for Orora, UBS says. Orora downgraded its FY 2024 earnings view in April, citing a weaker performance by its Saverglass and North America distribution businesses. Investors took fright and Orora's share price is down some 20% since the start of this year. "For Saverglass, industry data points remain weak and suggest elevated liquor inventory in the U.S. distribution channel, combined with declining retail volumes given cost of living pressures," analyst Nathan Reilly says. UBS notes European glass packager Verallia recently cut its annual earnings guidance by 13%. UBS lowers its FY 2025 Ebit forecast by Orora by 11% to A$396 million, putting it some 10% below consensus expectations. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2333 GMT - Asset quality deterioration is the most likely catalyst to push Australian banks' share prices to de-rate, say Citi analysts Brendan Sproules and Thomas Strong in a note. They note that share prices currently continue to outperform the broader Australian market. "Thus far this cycle, asset quality has remained benign as households and businesses have been sitting on strong liquidity," says Citi which sees that modest rises from here are likely to have little impact. They consider whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to go further, and what that will mean for asset quality and share prices at Aussie lenders. Citi stays sell-rated on the banks. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2328 GMT - Mineral Resources's share price could come under pressure, given the miner is likely to expand capacity of its Onslow Iron Ore project to 50 million tons/year, suggests Citi. The bank opens "a downside catalyst watch" on the stock heading into the August results season when Mineral Resources is set to provide forward guidance. "The market needs to digest capex for a bigger 50-million-ton Onslow which we see as a matter of when, not if," analyst Kate McCutcheon says in a note. "Holders looking for cash harvest will be disappointed and need to look through to Mineral Resources's growth optionality and leverage." Citi cuts its price target by 13% to A$70.00/share, but retains a buy call. Mineral Resources ended last week at A$53.67. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2313 GMT - Australian authorities' efforts to reduce net migration in 2025 implies a notable slowdown of revenue for the international inbound health insurance market over the medium term, says Macquarie. For health insurer Nib, visa statistics are strong lead indicators for its International Students and Workers business. Macquarie says Nib's market weighted portfolio implies student visas contracted 39% on year in 4Q, but worker visas rose 17%. Macquarie notes Nib's workers product remains the cheapest among major insurers, while the students product is also toward the bottom of the market. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2219 GMT - Mineral Resources's net debt is likely to plateau around A$4 billion-A$5 billion, but it will be some time before it starts to fall meaningfully, reckons Jefferies. The sale of a 49% stake in the Onslow Iron haul road and the ramp-up of the Onslow Iron Ore project should begin to generate cash flows to help ease pressure on Mineral Resources's balance sheet. However, analyst Mitch Ryan thinks the reinvestment of more than A$1.3 billion of capital, as well as several smaller capital commitments, will keep net debt above A$4.5 billion until FY 2027. "We see Mineral Resources's net-debt to Ebitda as 5.1x, at the far end of what we view as comfortable leverage within a cyclical commodity business such as Mineral Resources," Jefferies says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2204 GMT - Qantas looks able to restart dividends in FY 2025 and continue buying back shares even as it maintains capex of more than A$3.7 billion, according to Jefferies analyst Anthony Moulder. He forecasts dividends of A$0.31/share in FY 2025, rising to A$0.40/share in FY 2026, while anticipating Qantas will pursue another buyback program in 2H of FY 2025 and FY 2026. "The delivery of above market capital management, structurally higher earnings continuing, further improvement to the domestic market structure and the delivery of growth from new aircraft would continue to highlight the upside potential to our price target at A$7.85 (from A$7.94)," Jefferies says. Qantas ended last week at A$6.05. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires