Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:PAR

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Limited

ASX:PAR
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$0.325 (+20.4%)
Last close price
#365
Rank
8
Held by
22
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Reports (5) My Report Forum Investors
Forum Topics PAR PAR Presentation in July

Pinned straw:
GazD
Added 4 months ago

I still believe in the drug here but have long lost confidence in the investment case... How will they fund their phase 3 trial???


Here's the carrot being dangled by Paul Rennie at the Biomed conference this month:


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Karmast
Added 4 months ago

Yes good summary @GazD. The drug and opportunity still seem amazing however it's been horribly managed by Paul Rennie and his team in my opinion.

I'm going to take the David Gardner from Motley Fool approach from here - it's a small part of my portfolio now due to all the dilution, so I'll let it play out and it either goes to zero or becomes a multi bagger over the next couple of years.

That said it was a mistake to buy an unprofitable mid stage biotech and I will not do it again - a hurdle I don't need to jump over. There is just so much that can go wrong and I can't handicap it properly even with some of the early requirements checked off. The only good news is I've only made this mistake once!

15
GazD
Added 4 months ago

Better than me @Karmast i hold PTX as well. I’m such a sucker for a potentially world changing medication. I have learnt this lesson however and will separate my hopes for humankind from my business analysis in future. Like you I will hold these small holdings after all the thesis for PAR is not actually busted, just severely wounded by ostensibly poor money management…

12
Slomo
Added 4 months ago

Good insights @Karmast and @GazD.

It's a reminder to me at least that there's a (potentially big) difference between a business with good prospects (or at least a good product, albeit not approved) and the value of the equity in that business.

This was always a risky prospect but had the potential to deliver a huge windfall. The product still looks like it might produce a big win to me but ...the poor money management @GazD refers to has led to a situation where dilution from another raise or an opportunistic partnership could see current equity holders not participate fully in this potential upside - after funding the journey to here.

Mgmt has left shareholders in a difficult position as FDA Phase III will cost US$50-60m and take 2+ years AFTER FDA approval…

Not only is this unfunded but they're down to AU$18m in cash which leaves them 6 months at current burn rate.

Best case from here is the FDA approval comes through soon and they can start a bidding war between potential partners who will fund trials and not take too much of the cream off the top.

Disc: Held (tiny position)

14
Karmast
Added 4 months ago

Very well summarised @Slomo

10