Forum Topics Companies improving without the market noticing
Hackofalltrades
Added 11 months ago

I think I'm going to bump this post every now and then.

Essentially, what companies do you own that have had their fundamentals improving, but without a corresponding price change?

I think playside PLY is much better value than at many points in its history, though it may not meet this criteria in the last few months.

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thunderhead
Added one year ago

CCR and M7T come to mind after their latest updates.

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Hackofalltrades
Added one year ago

I've been reflecting upon some of the investments I've made and something I have noticed is that where I have had success is where I have bought into a company that has been having success without the market noticing for some time.

This naturally leads to the question:

What companies do you own that have had their fundamentals improving, but without a corresponding price change?

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edgescape
Added one year ago

When you talk about price change are you looking at the price being flat or going nowhere for a certain period?

Hard one to figure out really. I think TLX was in that boat for some time because of their excessive R&D spend used to build their business into a "platform" for cancer treatment. It is a pity I did not stay patient enough for the price to rocket even though it was plainly obvious what they were doing with all the spending.

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Slideup
Added one year ago

@Hackofalltrades, I think AQZ fits your description. Its been flat and overlooked for a while now, despite a solid and improving underlying business

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edgescape
Added one year ago

AHX (Apiam Animal Health). Price has been bottoming recently.

But it is highly leveraged with debt as well

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PortfolioPlus
Added one year ago

I would second AQZ. It wasn’t that long ago that QAN offered $4.75 a share, but the ACCC kyboshed the deal. Since then, the business has strengthened significantly with its roll out of FIFO contracts and contracted wet and dry leases. They have signalled an improved FY24 and when announcing the results on Aug 28, they will unveil the finality of the debt structure - the only shoelace untied on this centipede! It’s being range bound in the $3 to $3.20 bracket for sometime. Debt is a tad high, but not when you compare it to QAN or REX. And there’s another reason to think about AQZ, the woes of REX are a godsend in the supply of trained staff, not to mention the potential for more planes to be leased. I will also throw in the value of its emerging international parts business for E190’s - actually it’s an undervalued asset on the BS. Go back to Covid times. And Aqz did the deal of a lifetime - they bought 30 EMBRAER E190’s for $5m a pop. Recently they sold 1 engine for $5m. The E190’s have 2 engines and a check of 2nd hand E190’s on the international scene would place their value @ circa $13m to $18m - more for parts of course. AQZ have around 63 of them. The commencement of the dividend plan will also attract more interest.

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lowway
Added one year ago

You've laid out the case for $AQZ nicely @PortfolioPlus and it should be interesting to have their MD on the SM Meetings session in the near future.

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Slideup
Added one year ago

@Hackofalltrades, @PortfolioPlus sums it up very nicely. The only thing I would add is that AQZ gets lumped into the airline category, but in reality it is a bit of a different beast as it doesn't have exposure to the airline risks or oil prices and ticket sales. It manages the high capex cost of airlines by buying planes when everyone else is going out of business.

The only (minor) concern I have is that the board seems a bit stacked around Rugby union connections, and just not sure if this is the best for governance but they haven't done anything problematic so its more just noting it, rather than thinking its problematic at this stage.

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