Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 07 Aug 2024 14:59:49
Jimmy
Added 4 months ago

0358 GMT - Recent share-price movements prompt JPMorgan to switch its preference for some Australian major banks. In a note, analyst Andrew Triggs says it upgrades ANZ to neutral from underweight and downgrades Westpac to underweight from neutral. With regard to ANZ, JPM says previously identified negative catalysts now look to be factored into its valuation. For Westpac, JPM reckons the stock doesn't look to have many negative near-term catalysts, but its valuation looks very stretched, as it has significantly outperformed the other banks this year. At the same time, JPM thinks the market isn't pricing in potential hiccups with the tech simplification or potential management turnover. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0150 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates' growth options in the U.S. and China make the Australian company a standout global producer, Macquarie analysts say. They point to the popularity of its longstanding Penfolds brand in China and of its DAOU unit in the U.S., although they anticipate another A$30 million of 2H charges related to the recent acquisition of the latter. They tell clients in a note that Treasury is becoming a more focused luxury wine company, with its A$354 million pre-tax writedown of brands and goodwill reflecting a more realistic likely sale value of its legacy commercial assets. Macquarie's analysts keep an outperform rating and A$14.00 target price on the stock, adding that Treasury's annual earnings are in line with their forecasts. Shares are down 0.85% at A$11.60. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0135 GMT - Audinate keeps its bull at Morgan Stanley despite the audio-visual tech provider's fiscal 2025 profit guidance falling materially short of market expectations. The investment bank's analysts tell clients that history suggests that the Australian company's long-term growth hinges on industry adoption and its competitive position, rather than near-term product and revenue cycles. They write in a note that they think that gross profit will fall about 5% in fiscal 2025 before growing by 18% in fiscal 2026. MS stays overweight on the stock and cuts the target price 55% to A$10.00. Shares are down 4.6% at A$8.09. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0124 GMT - Australian general insurers look to be continuing to reprice personal motor and home policies ahead of claims inflation, say Macquarie analysts in a note. From this, they see that underlying margins are likely to peak in FY 2025. More generally across the Australian insurance sector, Macquarie estimates like-for-like claims inflation of around 3.1% in the June quarter for personal motor and around 2.6% for home, significantly lower than last year. The investment bank prefers IAG, which it has an outperform call on, over Suncorp, which it rates as neutral. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2356 GMT - WiseTech Global is likely to report fiscal 2024 revenue from its landside logistics operations at the lower end of guidance, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They think that revenues from the logistics software provider's Shipamax, Envase and Blume units to be at the lower end of the A$125 million-A$150 million range. Looking ahead, they tell clients in a note that fiscal 2025 margins should benefit from an additional A$25 million of net savings from WiseTech's A$40 million productivity program. This will be partly offset by ongoing staff investment, with a look at LinkedIn showing headcount at WiseTech's CargoWise platform growing 27% over the last year. GS has a neutral rating and A$91.00 target price on the stock, which is at A$85.00 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2348 GMT - Medical device maker Fisher & Paykel Healthcare looks to be benefiting from U.S. demand for masks into its 2025 fiscal year, Wilsons analysts write in a note. They tell clients that outstanding CPAP device demand looks to have been filled by the industry over the last 12-15 months, with the breathing devices now driving elevated resupply activity. They point out that Fisher & Paykel's April launch of its Solo mask occurred in April, which coincided with the start of its fiscal year. Wilsons upgrades its fiscal 2025 forecast for homecare sales growth to 14.6% from 10.5%. The target price rises 17% to A$35.00 and Wilsons stays overweight on the stock, which is at A$29.06 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2324 GMT - Telstra is likely to raise the bottom end of its fiscal 2025 earnings guidance range when it announces its annual results later this month, Goldman Sachs analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the greater certainty around Australian mobile pricing trends should allow the telecommunications provider to narrow its fiscal 2025 Ebitda guidance range to A$8.5 billion-A$8.7 billion, from A$8.4 billion-A$8.7 billion. They observe that Telstra typically gives year-ahead guidance in a A$200 million range. For this month's fiscal 2024 results, they are looking for a 3% on-year rise in Ebitda to A$8.22 billion. GS has a "buy" rating and A$4.30 target price on the stock, which is at A$3.80 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2313 GMT - NextDC's bull at Wilsons wants to see the Australian data-center operator show it can grow outside of Sydney. Wilsons analysts estimate that 83% of NextDC's newly announced contracted growth was in New South Wales state, where the company will have incrementally less and less saleable capacity until its fourth and fifth Sydney centers come online. They tell clients that this could take some time, so they would like to see NextDC show it can grow in neighboring Victoria state, where it currently has three centers in and around Melbourne. Wilsons cuts its target price 3.3%, to A$19.41, on the effect of the company's recent A$1.3 billion capital raise. It stays "overweight" on the stock, which is at A$15.71 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2303 GMT - Metallurgical coal producer Coronado Global Resources' unchanged guidance for 2024 and cost commentary bolster hopes that margin gains are sustainable in the near term, Morgans says. The most comforting takeaway from Coronado's 1H result is that mining costs appear headed toward $80/ton, driven by improved volume and productivity gains. "Operational improvement enhances Coronado's appeal to a wider investor set, although Mammoth timing and sluggish steel demand are risks to monitor," analyst Tom Sartor says. Mammoth is Coronado's underground mine development at its Curragh operation in Australia. First coal from Mammoth is expected in December. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2259 GMT - The second half of 2024 is looking better for metallurgical coal producer Coronado Global Resources, suggests Ord Minnett. Analyst Tim Elder expects unit costs at Coronado's Curragh mine in Australia to fall by 25% in 2H compared to the prior six months, while production at its U.S. operations is likely to improve. That will lead to $126 million of free cash flow in 2H, contrasting with a $110 million outflow in 1H, estimates Ord Minnett. "We expect Coronado's current valuation discount (0.9x price-to-net asset value) to begin to unwind with delivery of more consistent results in 2H of 2024 and material production growth in 2025," Ord Minnett says. It retains an accumulate call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2256 GMT - The key challenge for the earnings growth among Australia's real-estate investment trusts continues to be debt costs resetting to a higher spot market rate, and interest rates remaining higher for longer than anticipated, Citi says. Most REITs had a cost of debt below spot rates of 5.5%-6.0%, which is a bearish signal, analyst Suraj Nebhani says. "We see most downside for REITs that have debt costs significantly below spot including Abacus Storage King, Dexus, Charter Hall Long WALE REIT, Abacus Group, and BWP Trust," Citi says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2247 GMT - Tailwinds for metallurgical coal should emerge soon, reckons Jefferies, which is bullish on ASX-listed producer Coronado Global Resources. Increasing supply from the Bowen Basin, lower steel demand from India and China, and discounted Russian selling into Asian markets have contributed to recent market softness. But there's reason to see that changing, Jefferies contends. "We expect supply constraints to coincide with post-Monsoon Indian restocking demand into year-end leading to upwards pressure on higher-quality coal pricing," analyst Daniel Roden says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2243 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates is right to sell its portfolio of lower-priced brands including Wolf Blass and Blossom Hill, says Jefferies. "While net proceeds are likely to be immaterial and the transaction modestly earnings dilutive, we believe it is value accretive," analyst Michael Simotas says. That's because it will raise net sales revenue per case, margins and return on invested capital. Jefferies thinks Treasury can comfortably grow Ebits in double-digit percentage terms. That view reflects stabilizing conditions in the U.S., improved availability of luxury wines, contributions from the DAOU and Frank Family Vineyards purchased since 2021, and the reopening of China to its Penfolds brand.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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