@mushroompanda , I have just caught up reading your fantastic writeup after digesting the AD8 results - many thanks and much appreciated. It really did help put the results in clearer context.

The one thing you helped make significantly clearer for me is the transition from AD8-supplied CCM's to OEM-self-provisioning of chips using AD8's software and designs. It has been talked about a lot, but for me, your summary is the clearest articulation of that transition by far. This transition, the rate and extent of the transition and the resulting impact on the overall moat and financials is clearly one to keep a close watch on.

Thanks again!

Disc: Held IRL

Thank you for sharing your detailed research and thesis @mushroompanda.

@mushroompanda thanks for that i found your write up very useful. Maybe im way off track here but is the bullwhip effect, inventory re/destocking up the chain? sounds innocuous but changes in inventory, when you do the maths, can easily overwhelm u/l sales growth in both directions.

Not knowing the competitor in the video market, reading your report i wondered whether their hold on video, if embedded, could be used to launch them at AD8 in the audio market.

well done

@mushroompanda what a brilliant write-up.

Totally agree about the "Bullwhip Effect'. Of course, to be sure the bullwhip effect has occurred, we have to observe the system once the "pulse" has passed through the value chain. It looks like we won't know for sure until FY26. (By the way, I lecture on supply chains and bullwhips, so let me know if you want your paper used as the basis of a teaching resource in a year or two!!)

I'd really like to know more about NDI, and also the basis on which OEMs are choosing between Dante AV and NDI in their design decisions. The relative slopes of those two lines are the thing to track over the next couple of years to understand whether Dante AV can also become an industry leader, despite the headstart NDI has.

For me, the huge value of your writeup is that it puts the case very clearly that what $AD8 is suffering is a transient industry dynamic - albeit one that is playing out over years. Such a disturbance is completely indepedent of the fundamental competitiveness of the product and the underlying long-term industry growth trend (provided that in passing through, the disturbance hasn't put $AD8 out of business (tick) or damaged its reputation as a reliable supplier to its customers (tick, I think, because everyone was effected).

The paper makes a strong case to believe the long term growth thesis remains intact.

My primary challenge is to decide whether or not to increase my $AD8 holding. Even at its beaten down value, it remains 3.6% of my RL portfolio. (I've been thinking about how the risk-reward looks from here compared with $PNV (8.9%), $BOT (7%), and $NEU (4.4%) - being my other large, high-risk holdings with very material 5-year upsides).

Anyway, thanks for sharing here.