0456 GMT - The a2 Milk Company's underlying operational momentum still looks good to its bull at Citi despite a weaker-than-expected fiscal 2025 outlook. Analyst Sam Teeger cuts his fiscal 2025 earnings forecast by 21% on the dual-listed dairy-product supplier's guidance, but tells clients in a note that the period shouldn't be seen as a reflection of normalized earnings. He reckons that supply issues are only temporary, and cuts his fiscal 2026 earnings forecast by a relatively modest 14%. Citi keeps a buy rating on the stock and cuts its target price by 10% to A$7.04. Shares are down 19% at A$5.705. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0447 GMT - Domain's relatively modest earnings multiple helps it keep its bull at Citi despite its weaker-than-expected 4Q yield. Analyst Siraj Ahmed maintains a buy rating on the stock, telling clients in a note that Domain's bundling of its so-called Audience Boost product should improve views-per-listing and lead to 4% on-year depth growth over fiscal 2025. Not bad, for a stock trading at 14 times forecast fiscal 2025 earnings. It's not all positive, however. Ahmed sees Domain's exposure to Sydney and Melbourne as a potential headwind should housing markets slow, while he raises his cost forecasts over the medium term. Citi lifts its target price by 7.4% to A$3.65. Shares are down 4.8% at A$2.865. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0300 GMT - An Australian government decision that has derailed Regis Resources' McPhillamys gold project is unexpected and raises questions on how the miner could otherwise meet its future production ambitions, Citi analyst Kate McCutcheon says in a note. "While RRL's near-term FCF [free cash flow] is appealing, this news further hampers RRL's buy vs build dilemma to sustain production above circa 350,000 oz per annum in the medium term, which we expect to weigh on the stock," says McCutcheon. Regis stock is down 2.7% at A$1.605. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0147 GMT - Suncorp's sale of Asteron Life--the last of the group's non-core businesses--will enable the Australian general insurer to concentrate on optimizing its property and casualty business and remain a strong competitor in an evolving insurance market, say S&P Global Ratings in a note. "The group is planning significant investments in a multiyear system upgrade and will consider other initiatives to strengthen the business and achieve operating efficiencies," it adds. S&P sees Suncorp's very strong market position and robust capital adequacy will continue to underpin the ratings on its core operating subsidiaries. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0143 GMT - ASX-listed fund manager GQG's 1H FY 2024 expense growth was more elevated than expected, say Macquarie analysts in a note. Management suggested this was partially related to Abu Dhabi build outs, which should drive more revenue growth, they note. There was also around an $17.5 million increase in compensation provisions, which Macquarie reckons is likely linked to bonuses for the investment and distribution teams given their strong recent performance. "So while the quantum of cost growth was disappointing, it appears explainable and missing on costs due to revenue growth being so strong is a nice problem to have," it adds. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0106 GMT - CAR Group and REA keep their status as Goldman Sachs analysts' preferred pick of Australian classifieds stocks, with both able to demonstrate a track record of consistent management execution and consistent yield growth. The GS analysts tell clients in a note that they see earnings growth at both accelerating in FY 2026. They say that vehicle advertiser CAR should benefit from lower investment and currency headwinds, while real-estate advertiser REA can grow yield. GS keeps a buy rating on both stocks. REA is 61% owned by News Corp, the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0052 GMT - Packaging company Amcor appeared to disappoint investors with the absence of a buyback or M&A alongside its annual result, but Jarden thinks capital management remains on the horizon. Analyst James Wilson is forecasting a $160 million buyback in 2H of FY 2025, followed by another round of stock repurchases worth $100 million in FY 2026. A return to buybacks would "signal greater confidence in the outlook and provide a tailwind for EPS growth," says Jarden, which has an overweight call on Amcor's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0038 GMT - GPT is outperforming the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index early on Monday after its 1H earnings beat expectations. GPT reported 1H funds from operations of 16.14 Australian cents per security, compared with Citi's forecast of 15.3 cents and consensus hopes for 15.6 cents. Still, the property company kept its annual guidance unchanged. "The result was better than expected with continued momentum in retail and logistics portfolios, and better-than-expected outcomes on office occupancy," analyst Howard Penny says in a note. GPT's offices were 92.4% occupied at the end of June, with a weighted average lease expiry of 4.9 years. GPT's share price is up 1.7% at A$4.76/share, versus a 0.1% fall by the S&P/ASX 200 index. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0034 GMT - Tesltra's dividend yield could look more attractive over the next 12 months against an expected backdrop of falling bond yields, Morgan Stanley analysts tell clients in a note. They reckon that an absolute rise in dividend coupled with delivery against their earnings and free cashflow expectations could improve the stock's rating from its current multiple of 20 times earnings. They think that lower Australian interest rates and bond yields could lure investors to the telecommunications provider. They write that Telstra's fully imputed dividend means the stock currently offers a 4.8% yield for FY 2025 and 5.1% yield for FY 2026. GS has an overweight rating and A$4.40 target price on the stock, which is down 0.25% at A$3.95. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0032 GMT - Suncorp's FY 2024 earnings missed consensus expectations, but it delivered a dividend beat, say UBS analysts in a note.General insurance margins for the period disappointed UBS analysts due to what they see as "surprisingly weak yields," while FY 2025 guidance looks to be at or slightly ahead of consensus. In a positive element, UBS notes that targeted return from Suncorp's bank unit is still March 2025, although it hasn't been quantified yet. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0031 GMT - Ampol's 2H outlook looks relatively soft to RBC Capital Markets. Ampol today said July trading in three key areas--Fuels & Infrastructure, Convenience Retail, and New Zealand--was a continuation of 1H trends. "Ampol's F&I International outlook continues to look weak, as Ampol sees stable pricing reducing the opportunity for F&I International discretionary sales (limited trading opportunities) over 2H," says analyst Gordon Ramsay. Also, RBC expects refining margins to worsen over 2H, noting Singapore refiner cracks are currently well below 1H averages. Maintenance at Ampol's Lytton refinery, due to finish this month, adds to the challenge. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0031 GMT - BlueScope delivers a positive dividend surprise, with its total FY 2024 dividend of A$0.55/share a beat versus consensus expectations of A$0.51/share, says Citi analyst Paul McTaggart. Still, it's not enough to offset weaker-than-anticipated 1H earnings guidance, which is pulling shares lower. "FY25 market estimates will need to move lower given guidance; a near term headwind into what still looks to be a good FY27 outlook when current expansions are all contributing," McTaggart says in a note. BlueScope is down 3.6% at A$19.78/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

0025 GMT - Westpac's 3Q FY 2024 update mirrors that of peers CBA and NAB with better net interest margin and lower bad and doubtful debts, say UBS analysts John Storey and Olivia Clemson in an early note. But in the case of Westpac, underlying asset quality trends don't look to have deteriorated to the same extent. Another positive for Westpac is that its costs seem to be run-rating in line with UBS expectations and Visible Alpha consensus. "Overall, looking at consensus numbers this result suggests implied 4Q net profit of A$1.6 billion, which should see upgrades driven by higher NIM and lower bad debts," says UBS in reference to the 3Q result issued Monday. The investment bank also reckons Westpac remains well placed to return further capital to shareholders.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0010 GMT - Domain looks fairly priced at present despite its solid near-term growth outlook and meaningful valuation discount to real-estate advertising rival REA, Goldman Sachs analyst Kane Hannan says. There is nothing in Domain's annual result to shift Hannan's view of the stock, with concerns still lingering over weak developer volumes. His FY 2025 Ebitda forecast is unchanged, and he lifts his FY 2026 Ebitda forecast by 1%. GS keeps a hold rating and A$3.40 target price on the stock, which is down 3.3% at A$2.91. REA is 61% owned by News Corp, the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2351 GMT - Westpac's 3Q FY 2024 update was solid and should be well received by investors given that it shows a positive differentiation versus peer results last week, say Citi analysts in a note. Positive momentum in core net interest margin is likely to be a market focus, which Citi reckons will contribute to a better revenue outcome when compared with peers. "To the extent that management continue to manage costs well, albeit in the context of their technology reinvestment, we think the market will be able to focus on the revenue story at Westpac," says Citi, which keeps the lender as its top-pick in the Australian banking sector, but keeps its sell call. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

2349 GMT - NAB's 3Q FY 2024 update showed that the lender's margins were stable in the quarter, with the support of elevated rates, say Macquarie analysts in a note. The investment bank expects these trends to persist for the remainder of this year, but margin pressures will likely re-emerge in 2025, assuming the cash rate declines. "At that point, margin headwinds will be sector-wide, but given NAB's relatively weaker deposit book, we expect it to be less impacted than peers," says Macquarie. At the same time, it expects NAB's earnings per share to decline by around 5% in FY 2024 and around 3% in FY 2025, which suggests the current around 16.5 time price-to-earnings multiple is "challenging to justify."(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2336 GMT - Suncorp's FY 2024 cash earnings were below consensus, say Barrenjoey analysts in a note. Still, they say underlying earnings were largely in line, and FY 2025 guidance quality looks better than consensus based on further lowering. Barrenjoey points out that Suncorp gave no clarity on its bank sale capital management, while new investment initiatives announced which will likely incur further costs. "Benefit to shareholders unclear," says Barrenjoey in reference to new investments in an early take on the results. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2335 GMT - Ampol's unexpectedly low dividend payout appears to reflect a combination of conservatism, awareness of higher capex in 2H and lower earnings from the Lytton refinery in eastern Australia, says Barrenjoey. Ampol today declared an interim dividend of A$0.60/share, representing a payout ratio of 61%. That compares to Barrenjoey's expectation of a 70% payout ratio. "We think it's important to note that this is possibly just a timing issue, with Ampol able to bide its time until February, when it could increase returns (possibly including a special)," analyst Dale Koenders says in a note. Ampol is in the midst of a turnaround at Lytton that is due to finish this month. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

2334 GMT - BlueScope's 1H FY2025 earnings guidance of between A$350 million-A$420 million is, at the midpoint, 24% below consensus expectations around A$504 million and 8% below Jefferies estimate of A$417 million, Jefferies analyst Simon Thackray says in a note. Thackray, who expects market conditions to "get harder moving through FY25," tips the stock will fall on BlueScope's guidance and commentary. Otherwise, the steelmaker's FY2024 result "contained the usual swings and roundabouts," says Thackray. Bluescope's New Zealand and Pacific steel arm recorded a significant earnings miss versus both Jefferies's and consensus estimates, reflecting elevated energy costs and soft production volumes, he says. Australian Steel Products earnings were in line with Jefferies's forecasts, whilst North Star posted a slight miss as spreads narrowed. BlueScope closed Friday at A$20.52/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2331 GMT - Suncorp's FY gross written premium result, which is up 14% on year, is at the higher end of industry growth, say Jefferies analysts Simon Fitzgerald and William Richardson in a note. They call out Suncorp's NZ unit which had 17% gains in GWP for the FY, with rate hikes beginning to earn-through. "Consumer Insurance also performed strongly with good unit growth and GWP growth in Motor and Home portfolios," says Jefferies. It also sees investment income as a standout of the result, with the FY total investment income result up 67% compared to the previous year, which Jefferies says is a new record.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 19, 2024 00:59 ET (04:59 GMT)