Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 21 Aug 2024 15:03:40
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0148 GMT - Even though Insurance Australia Group missed consensus on FY 2024 net profit, this belies a quality result, say UBS analysts in a note. They note that IAG's insurance profitwas 1% ahead of both UBS estimates and consensus, with investment income being the main drag, at around A$30 million below consensus. For FY 2025 guidance, UBS sees this as being conservative given some tailwinds. "Evidence of repricing providing a strong tailwind," says UBS.(alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0109 GMT - Mall owner Scentre's latest effort to tackle its debt pile bodes well for its earnings outlook, suggests Citi. Scentre intends to launch a tender offer for up to US$550 million of subordinated notes due to mature in 2026. Scentre plans to issue new subordinated notes denominated in Australian dollars to fund the transaction. Details of the amount of the tender and the new issuance will be announced in due course, Scentre said today when reporting its 1H result. "We anticipate this to produce strong earnings accretion if executed," Citi analyst Howard Penny says in a note. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0104 GMT - Americans thirsty for their morning Joe is among the drivers of appliance maker Breville's 6.4% share-price rise today. Barrenjoey analyst Tom Kierath highlights double-digit growth in 2H within the Americas, and said coffee was "again the shining light within Breville's portfolio." Breville's 8% EBIT growth in FY 2024 was ahead of company guidance for a 5.0%-7.5% rise, and Barrenjoey highlighted its strong cash flow generation during the period as inventory levels fell. "We think that this result is likely enough to consolidate recent outperformance," Barrenjoey says. It has a neutral call on the stock.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0054 GMT - Charter Hall's shares leap 14% to approach their 2024 peak after the property owner's FY 2025 guidance beats expectations. Charter Hall signaled annual operating EPS of 79.0 Australian cents, up 4% on FY 2024. That was 9% better than Citi's forecast for 72.6 cents and above consensus expectations "with the key delta being lower valuation declines offset by lower capex and higher divestments," Citi analyst Suraj Nebhani says in a note. Still, Citi highlights one particular risk: office values could come down more. Office capitalization rates were at 5.8% at end-June, below peers and "highlighting potential further downside to come in FY 2025," Citi says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0045 GMT - A wall of free cashflow looms for Santos, highlights Barrenjoey, which has a buy call on the Australian energy company's stock. Santos today signaled a free cashflow yield of 12%-20% from 2026 to 2030 based on a US$75-US$90/bbl oil price. That outlook excludes potential new developments in Papua New Guinea, the Dorado oil field in Western Australia and Narrabri natural-gas field in eastern Australia. Given Santos's dividend policy to pay out at least 40% of free cashflow, that bodes well for the outlook for shareholder returns, Barrenjoey analyst Dale Koenders says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0004 GMT - IAG's FY 2025 guidance is in line with Citi expectations, say its analysts in a note. IAG guides to a FY 2025 reported insurance margin of 13.5% to 15.5% in line with FY 2024, with Citi currently forecasting 14.5%, around the midpoint of the range. IAG's FY 2025 gross written premium growth is guided to "mid to high single digit" which compares with Citi's existing forecast of 7% growth. With the outlook looking strong, Citi reckons this should be enough to support the stock price. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2354 GMT - Iluka's 1H earnings beat may be overshadowed by uncertainty over the future of its planned rare-earths refinery, Citi analyst Paul McTaggart says in a note. "Nothing new here but market may be increasingly nervous regarding the refinery given 2H update flagged," McTaggart says. Citi has a buy rating and A$7.80 target on Iluka, which ended Tuesday at A$5.68/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2344 GMT - Mineral sands miner Iluka's 1H net profit of A$134 million is 20% above consensus expectations, although 11% below Barrenjoey's estimates because an inventory adjustment is smaller than expected, says Glyn Lawcock, an analyst at the Australian bank. Iluka's dividend of A$0.04 is also above market expectations for A$0.038. "No update on Eneabba rare-earth refinery, with only comment being that an update on the project is due in 2H24, and that the project continues to be contingent on risk sharing with the Australian government," Lawcock says. Barrenjoey has an overweight rating and A$7.30 target on Iluka, which ended Tuesday at A$5.68/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2258 GMT - IAG missed consensus expectations for its FY 2024 cash earnings, but its FY 2025 guidance is largely in line with market expectations, Barrenjoey analyst Andrew Adams says in a note. In an early take on the FY 2024 results, Barrenjoey sees that it demonstrated that attritional loss ratio improvement and home and motor rate increases in 2H FY 2024 were in line or stronger than 1H. This was in comparison to peers, which suffered, the investment bank added, saying that the result will likely see 1%-3% consensus upgrades. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

August 21, 2024 01:03 ET (05:03 GMT)

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