Forum Topics CKF CKF Negative Trading Update 22/8

Pinned straw:

Added one year ago

Key points:

  1. Profit gains on higher sales were more than offset by the impact of persistent inflation on cost of sales, labour and energy
  2. Same store sales (SSS) performance continued to reflect weaker consumer sentiment in Australia and Europe and the impacts arising from the conflict in the Middle East, which has affected sales in the Netherlands
  3. H1 FY25 margins are expected to contract relative to prior year


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Arizona
Added one year ago

@juneauquan It is often said that companies like CKF will perform well when the economy is struggling.

The logic being that people will move from more expensive restaurants to KFC and DMP and McDonald's etc as money gets tight.

It seems that ain't necessarily so.

Perhaps customers do behave that way to some extent, but these are complicated businesses with many moving parts. Staffing, equipment, multiple ingredients, I remember during Covid CKF had to use cabbage as a substitute for lettuce.

I had held CKF for many years and done well out of it over the long term, I bought in at $1.31 before selling out at $11.18 during a run up in the SP late last year.

I had told myself I'd have another look at it when it got to $7.50. It almost got there today.


13

Solvetheriddle
Added one year ago

@juneauquan Poor QSR results have been a worldwide phenomenon. i can only think of CMG doing well. besides the usual fried chicken v burgers v pizza comparative value leapfrogging, the main issue is that costs, mainly commodity but also wages (low-wage workers getting inflation-related raises) are crunching margins. it only takes the marginal consumer to change to make a difference on the sales side, that is a couple of % change their habits, eg eat at home, or move to another QSR format. these trends have been in place for about two years now, IMO they are the tail end of the inflation issues we have seen and ultimately will pass.

8

Arizona
Added one year ago

This idea has been thrown around for years and makes some sense on the surface.

But dig a little deeper and (like most things in this life) its a little more nuanced.


6

edgescape
Added one year ago

Bit of a shock here

Still find there are lots of people queueing up at KFC where I am in Chatswood

5

UlladullaDave
Added one year ago

I would hazard the problem is shrinking basket size and less upselling. The margin at KFC comes from the fries and drinks not the chicken, at Dominoes it's all the frankenfood sides and at Chargrill Charlie's the salads etc. People still turn up for their chicken – the foundation of these fast food businesses is "craveability" after all – they just don't get the bells and whistles. Toss in a bit of cost inflation and CKF has a rough year or so.

I don't think the trade down from restaurants to fast food/QSR theory actually exists in the real world. Most people will just stay home.

9

Arizona
Added one year ago

@UlladullaDave I agree, the theory really doesn't seem to have played out.

5