Forum Topics TLX TLX Broker View

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

FWIW Some recent broker views

UBS: Buy 12m PT $29

KEY NUMBERS (AUD, YoY change)

1. Total revenue 364m +65%, and released in July

2. Operating expenses 197m, 8% more than both consensus and UBSe as AUD7.6m of one-off costs related to the company's withdrawn US IPO sit in the G&A line

3. NPAT 30m in line with UBSe and close to consensus on small numbers

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

1. Potential Illuccix approvals in EU, UK, BR

2. Resubmission of BLA for Zircaix

3. Phase II data for TLX250 in RCC

4. Start of clinical studies for TLX300

OUTLOOK / GUIDANCE

Unchanged. On 18 July, the company upgraded revenue guidance for FY24 to USD490m-510m / AUD745m-776m (previously USD445m-465m) and reaffirmed intended R&D spend (40-50% increase over FY23)

UBS COMMENT

Ex costs associated with the company's withdrawn US IPO of AUD7.6m, EBIT would have been c.AUD50m. Other opex components came in a touch higher than we and consensus envisaged. At NPAT level, tax helped. Net net we think this makes for an in line result and that the focus remains on pipeline developments and top line growth 

CLSA: Outperform 12m PT $22

Sound result, focus on catalysts

1H24 NPAT miss on US listing, GM part offsets higher operating Opex

Telix (TLX) 1H24 result delivered an NPAT miss of c.25% vs consensus, coming in at A$29.7m (cons A$39.7m). But the miss was likely driven in large part by costs associated with the withdrawn US listing (c.A$7.9m) plus related professional fees and M&A expenses (A$1.3m). Revenue was in line (pre-reported), but, encouragingly, GM was +267bps to 65.7%, +189bps versus consensus. TLX re-reiterated revenue guidance of A$745m-A$776m, along with R&D growth of 40- 50% YoY. Therefore, despite the NPAT miss, operationally, 1H24 delivered a satisfactory result. Despite nearer-term earnings adjustments, our longer-term estimates remain unchanged. We thus maintain our A$22.00 PT and O-PF rating, noting delivery on TLX’s large pipeline is required to support more material valuation uplifts, in our view


DISC: Held in RL & SM

mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Remorhaz - agreed. Good result. It doesn't require much of an H2 on Illuccix to hit consensusfor FY. But of course, the clinical trial newsflow will be the key catalysts over 2H.

(Just finalising my prep. over breakfast before the call in a few minutes!)

Disc: Held.

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