Forum Topics Superannuation investing post-retirement
Remorhaz
4 weeks ago

As I'm rapidly approaching "that time" I've recently been doing a LOT of reading and research in this space and even attended two whole day "retirement events"

All looking at both financial and the many non financial aspects of retiring

Some of the books I've recently read include (the first three are Australian so have that local context):


Morningstar also recently ran a four part Morningstar Retirement Bootcamp series (the presentations are available for download and the videos are available on Youtube) - Note: I know Mark is a big fan of the bucketing method and income investing so that's the asset allocation approach you'll see highlighted in the last part of the series here

There's also quite a few blogs with extensive content in this space - however most of them are US based - some of which applies and much of which doesn't in our domestic context (and that goes way beyond just our tax, pension, medical, aged care and other systems differences - even things like the so called 4% rule doesn't actually work (stand up to historical calculations) in a historical context in Australia (or in fact almost every other country other than the US) - however the FIRE crowd seems to eat it up) - anyway some I found interesting include Early Retirement Now's - Safe Withdrawal Rate Series and The Retirement Manifesto

There appear to be two broad (opposing) camps of retirement philosophies: those who are probability-based and and those who are safety-first - e.g. if a Monte Carlo simulation (the standard tooling used by most modern retirement calculators - e.g. the TelstraSuper Retirement Lifestyle Planner or the Supercalcs Mercer Retirement Income Simulator) indicates a 90% probability of success:

  • the probability-based people say 90% is reasonable (plan likely to work), can adjust as plan progresses if needed (e.g. reduce spending if required);
  • however the safety-first people say 10% failure rate is too high, must split into essential expenses which need 100%, and discretionary which can be adjusted


and this favouring of one or the other then leads into different strategies for investing in retirement - e.g.

  • probability-based people look at safe withdrawal rates and use a total returns portfolio approach using MPT and are generally not looking to things like annuities (as the generally lower returns do not offset the marginal increase in safety over a SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)) - just use an account based pension in retirement
  • safety-first folks live in the lifecycle finance theory world where they prioritise spending goals (essential basic needs, contingency fund, discretionary expenses), risky assets are "risky" and history is no guide, so need to do asset-liability matching (assets matched to goals/needs) - time segmentation and bucket strategies and including cash, annuities, bond ladders are some of the fundamental tools for essential spending; an account based pension is just for the discretionary bucket)


Of course it's not just "black" and "white" and often people will fall across the spectrum and choose aspects of each to incorporate

Personally after my research I think I'm so far leaning towards having a partial bucket strategy (the emergency fund part at least) and using a brief falling (into retirement) and then a rising (reverse) equity glidepath in the 5-15 years after retirement (essentially to offset some of the risks of sequence of return around retirement) but moving back to a 75% equity weighting over those years for long term growth (this last part is not typical of a traditional lifecycle asset allocation/glidepath of a traditional super fund (where in the 10-20 years leading into retirement you're shifted from a growth portfolio to a balanced then conservative portfolio by retirement and then stay there (e.g. 30:70 defensive:growth) for the rest of retirement). Also to set an expectation/guide of the sort of reliable ongoing spending in retirement I'm also looking at calculating via a 3.25% SWR (which appears to be historically reasonable in Australia - Note: I'm calculating for 40+ years)

An additional problem in this space is there are so many withdrawal strategies (variants and in addition to the standard SWR) out there it's hard to choose - most "intuitively sound reasonable" but it's hard to know in practice and some are way complicated (it's harder to see some of these working when you're old and senile trying to redo the calcs each year or if you pass away expecting your better half to just take up where you left off) - including: Constant Dollar (sort of SWR), Vanguard Dynamic Spending Strategy, Endowment Strategy, CAPE-based, Hebeler Autopilot II, Guyton-Klinger, 95% Rule, Sensible Withdrawals, Variable Percentage Withdrawal (Boggleheads) & Dynamic SWR to name a few


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lankypom
a month ago


I stumbled across this Livewire article discussing the Growth At A Reasonable Yield (GARY) portfolio, which sounds like it focuses on that elusive sweet spot of 'quality' companies which exhibit both capital growth and pay a worthwhile dividend. 

The recent best performers in this model portfolio are cited as CDA, which I already hold, EVN, which I have been mulling over for a few months, but am not too keen on because of its purely domestic focus (hence limited growth potential), and TLS, which has been a long term capital destroyer. 

The GARY portfolio seems to be the creation of Deep Data Analytics, whose website is not at all helpful in explaining the basis for stock inclusion in the portfolio.

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Clio
a month ago

I recently listened to the Money Puzzle podcast (22/8 episode) in which James Kirby interviewed Sam Sicilia, CIO Hostplus for the past 16 years. Hostplus has been the #1 performing Australian Super fund over the past decade (8.3% pa). Their average fund member is 37 years old, so unsurprisingly the talk starts with the value of compounding and long-term investing for those working toward retirement with runways of 30 or so years.

But the discussion then pivots to the issue that (quoting Sicilia): "Super was designed at a time when people retired at 65 and conveniently died at 68. Today they live to 98. How do you intend to live for 30 years after retirement without generating returns in retirement."

Sicilia's thesis is that you invest for growth in the accumulation phase (pre-retirement), then move to the decumulation phase post-retirement, but now that decumulation phase investing must have an accumulation (meaning growth) component, or else retirees will run out of funds. "All I'm saying is that if you intend to live 30 years post-retirement, then you are essentially a 30-year-old that retires at 60, even though you're a 60-year-old that retires at 90, right?"

I've recently heard several other fund managers who work with SMSF investors echo this thinking - that there needs to be a mind-set change and retirees need to be investing for growth as well as income, and that investing for income alone (and holding capital-preserving assets like bonds and cash) will see their capital erode too quickly. Couple that with recent surveys showing that the primary reason so many retirees are dying with large Super balances is because they are frightened of running out of cash and not because they are hoarding it for future generations.

Personal experience has taught me that the need for growth as well as income in retirees' investments is one many financial advisors haven't yet absorbed. Their learned wisdom seems to be that if you're retired and in pension phase, then you must move to preserving capital (Defensive Assets = Domestic Cash and Fixed Interest) and otherwise invest in equities for income only (regardless of any possible capital growth). The impact of inflation on capital is barely if at all acknowledged.

When it comes to the current reality of pension-phase investing, there seems to be a fundamental disconnect between, on the one hand, fund managers (and savvy self-managing SMSF investors) and, on the other hand, the body of financial advisors.

Just my 2 cents.


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lankypom
a month ago

I wholeheartedly agree that there is a lack of guidance on managing one's capital once in pension mode.

I have been a growth investor for more than a decade, so any dividends I have received have been incidental, and usually gone into a DRP. Now I face the novelty of being in pension mode in my SMSF, which means I have to withdraw a minimum 5% of my fund value each year.

Since I have never focussed on dividend income, this won't get me anywhere near close to 5%. So as I see it I have two choices, either reorient my portfolio to high yielding dividend payers (and most of those have little or no capital appreciation), or stick to my guns with a high conviction growth portfolio and start selling down each of my holdings by 5% each year, hoping that their capital appreciation will more than make up for my reduced holding.

Since total shareholder returns are what matter, I plan to stick to the latter option. My gut tells me this will preserve my capital better than a typical income-oriented portfolio. In fact in my first year of retirement my SMSF has gained 25%,, so it can easily withstand a 5% withdrawal. But next year what if it goes down 10% and I have to withdraw 5% in addition. Maybe then I would wish for bucket loads of dividends.

Very interested in the thoughts of others in a similar life stage.

21

Chagsy
a month ago

Hi @Clio and welcome, to your points @lankypom, I put up some stuff on this sibject a few weeks ago here https://strawman.com/forums/topic/9483#post-28023

I would strongly recommend the information around sequencing risk and portfolio construction sessions from the morningstar YouTube video series, and also the spreadsheets that allow you to play around with your portfolio buckets to achieve the risk vs downside protection you require. Feel free to DM me and I can send them through if you can't follow the breadcrumbs above and get them yourself.

My personal approach will be (I am reducing work and salary by 75% next year) to hold a portfolio of "quality" shares as my growth bucket, and also allocate a greater percentage of total assets than usual retirement portfolio construction, to this bucket. By having a "quality" focus, one can expect an ever increasing dividend stream, hopefully above inflation, giving a real increase in income over time. Additionally, quality companies tend to be less volatile and should protect against sequencing risk more than say, an index or growth orientated ETF, such s a NASDAQ ETF. Research suggests that quality companies tend to outperform over a 20-30 year time period.

there are various international focussed quality ETFs available on the ASX

https://www.ssga.com/au/en_gb/intermediary/etfs/spdr-msci-world-quality-mix-fund-qmix

https://www.vaneck.com.au/etf/equity/moat/snapshot/

https://www.blackrock.com/au/products/investment-funds#type=all&style=All&view=perfNav&pageSize=25&pageNumber=1&sortColumn=navAmount&sortDirection=desc

or locally focussed

https://www.vaneck.com.au/etf/equity/qual/snapshot/

https://www.betashares.com.au/fund/australian-quality-etf/

I will still have to sell some holdings to hit the 5% rule, but there is nothing to say I have to spend that money if it is surplus to my living expenses, so could easily be re-invested, but sadly out of a tax advantageous wrapper.

Anyway, that's my personal approach after having spend some recent weeks going through all this issues myself.

Hope it helps.

C

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lankypom
a month ago

Many thanks for those links @Chagsy . I was / am very conscious of sequencing risk, and hold 3 years of living expenses in cash to insulate myself to some extent from short term market volatility. I am also pretty well diversified with managed funds (both Lakehouse Funds), and ETFs (MOAT, QUAL, QSML, NDQ, HACK) as well as direct share holdings. Of these only CDA has been a decent dividend payer, as well as showing nice capital appreciation.I guess they fall well within the Quality spectrum - maybe I just need to transition to more companies like this, but none spring to mind.

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@Clio Wow Sam Sicilia it's amazing where these dudes end up, but thats another story. reading what you have written i think just goes to show you how important customisation is when addressing your own finances. a blanket solution is not really any good. what we really want to know is how long are we going to live and that's what we don't know.

Personally, i have a lot of risk assets but also have a defined benefit pension and run a cash buffer, the rest in risk assets. but thats me, not anyone else. As i tell anyone who asks, for me to say more i would need to know alot about your personal finances and circumstances, and they are not my business.

one thing i would suggest is that government policy on the timing and extent of your super drawdowns shouldn't play a part in your AA! (IMHO)

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actionman
2 weeks ago

@lankypom if you assume 5% inflation and 5% annual investment returns, you are assuming that your super is getting 0% return above inflation. The long run average for super is say 7% in a growth option and inflation averages about 3% which is the upper range for the RBA target. So you may get closer to 4% capital growth on your super which will make a massive difference to your calculations. I.e. an extra $40k per year on a $1m super balance.

Also, you may not need $100k per year if your capacity to do things reduces. I'm thinking my ability to spend money will go down once I can't go skiing (no insurance available after age 65 anyway) or travelling O/S.

My mum is 89, owns her home, and spends $15 a day on a muffin, coffee and newspaper to do the crossword :-). Her wealth is actually going up. Of course you need to be in good health which is where I am spending a lot of my time working on as best I can, because that's the biggest random variable when planning your finances.

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lowway
2 weeks ago

Now that's a very simple and effective reply @actionman , resonates with me

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