Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 30 Aug 2024 15:03:56
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Added 3 months ago

0208 GMT - Harvey Norman's FY 2024 result was in line with expectations, but slowing momentum in its international businesses could lead to short-term weakness in its share price, E&P analyst Phillip Kimber says. Sales momentum improved in July for its key Australian business, with 3.5% growth, and there was a bright spot in Malaysia, with growth of 9.7%. But other markets fared worse: New Zealand fell 9%, Ireland fell 0.3% and Singapore slipped 2.3%. Kimber notes that along with other discretionary retailers, Harvey Norman's share price had performed strongly in recent months. Investors are downbeat for now, with Harvey Norman shares 4.3% lower at A$4.68 in recent trade. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

0200 GMT - Perpetual's 1Q FY 2025 update may provide more certainty on the long-awaited tax ruling regarding the deal to sell two of its units to KKR which the Australian Taxation Office is still examining, says UBS analyst Shreyas Patel in a note. Still, the range of net proceeds from the sale of Perpetual's trust and wealth management units as indicated by the company on Thursday looks conservative to UBS, given both ends of the range assume capital gains tax is actually payable. At current share price, UBS still sees a positive outcome skew with either favorable tax ruling providing valuation relief or the scheme being potentially voted down early next year. UBS keeps its buy call. Perpetual is down 0.7% at A$19.73. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0148 GMT - UBS analyst Shaun Cousins downgrades Wesfarmers to sell after its FY 2024 result, saying the Australian conglomerate is trading at high earnings multiples versus history and its peers. "The earnings multiples are at too significant a premium for the growth and outlook, making the risk reward unattractive," Cousins says in a research note. He adds that retail trading figures to start the FY 2025 were below market for Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks. On the bright side, he says Wesfarmers has strong growth options and that it is well positioned to manage the current economic environment given its strong balance sheet. Wesfarmers shares fell 4% yesterday and are down another 2.6% today, trading recently at A$72.12. (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)

0139 GMT - Australian major banks' recent results were in line with Morgan Stanley's expectation, with it making only modest changes to its estimates. MS analysts say in a note that trends across the majors were similar, with stable margins, mid-single-digit loss ratios, healthy provisions, and large capital buffers. There were also "no major red flags" on credit quality with non-performing loans moving up by an average of around 6% in the June quarter, following an around 10% increase in the March quarter, they say. Across the sector, MS expects pre-provision profit to recover by an average of around 4.5% in FY 2025, after falling by around 5.5% in FY 2024. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0132 GMT - Bega Cheese's cash generation in FY 2024 surprised UBS, which speculates on what it could do with the additional firepower. Bega delivered A$137 million of operating cash in 2H, turning the page on 18 months of poor cash generation. "Good cash flow performance drove a stronger balance sheet (leverage circa 1x), which could allow the company to be active again in M&A to bolster Branded or explore capital management," says analyst Evan Karatzas, referring to one of Bega's divisions. UBS thinks share buybacks or a special dividend are options if Bega opts for new capital management initiatives. It retains a neutral call on Bega's stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0125 GMT - Sandfire Resources's Black Butte project in the U.S. continues to look the odd one out in its portfolio to UBS. Sandfire is due to make a final investment decision on the copper project in Montana in about 18-24 months, and recently highlighted more high-grade intercepts when drilling there. "However we believe it still seems unlikely to meet hurdle rates alone to open up another operational time-zone," analyst Levi Spry says in a note. "Unless something changes we question its role within the portfolio." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0122 GMT - Mineral Resources' balance sheet at end-June was worse than Morgan Stanley expected, but analyst Rahul Anand thinks the miner can avoid an equity raising. MS notes that Mineral Resources' cash generation is slowing, which will limit efforts to bring its debt down in FY 2025. If commodities prices stay where they are then Mineral Resources will need a A$1 billion refinancing around the end of FY 2027, given it has a US$700 million loan maturing then. "For Mineral Resources to draw down its available A$800 million revolving facility completely in FY 2025, Morgan Stanley suggests iron ore prices would need to drop to US$70/ton and spodumene to US$550/ton simultaneously, which is 25% downside protection," the bank says.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0121 GMT - Australian dentistry provider Pacific Smiles keeps its bull at Morgan Stanley after expanding annual margins despite halting the rollout of practices while it fielded takeover proposals. The investment bank's analysts say this ability to expand margins in the absence of an aggressive rollout had been a key question that the company has now answered. With strategic interest from private equity over for now, the MS analysts lift their earnings estimates and reiterate their overweight rating on the stock. MS raises its target price by 13% to A$2.15. Shares are down 2.2% at A$1.775. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0107 GMT - Jefferies views Ramsay Health Care's outlook statement as muted, which seems to be shared by investors broadly as the private hospital operator's stock falls 7.8% today. Ramsay said it expects growth in activity and net profit in FY 2025, but listed several headwinds. Cost of living pressures are buffeting its Australia business, the NHS tariff increase in the U.K. is below inflation at only 0.6% and a change in mix is impacting margins in France, analyst David Stanton says in a note. Ramsay is trading at A$41.07 today, opening a gap with Jefferies's last published price target of A$45.00/share. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

0106 GMT - TPG Telecom's softer-than-expected postpaid mobile revenue suggests impacts from the Australian telecommunications provider's more price sensitive customer cohort, UBS analyst Lucy Huang says. She tells clients in a note that postpaid average-revenue-per-user was lower than she had anticipated, also observing that TPG lost 47,000 postpaid subscribers despite growing overall mobile numbers. TPG's comment that it is tracking to the midpoint of its annual Ebitda guidance puts it in line with Huang's 2024 forecast of A$1.99 billion. UBS has a neutral rating and A$4.80 target price on the stock, which is up 6.8% at A$4.89. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0040 GMT - IDP Education gets a new bull at Morgans on the student-placement provider's ability to deliver sustained growth from fiscal 2026. Analyst Scott Murdoch raises his recommendation on the stock to add from hold, telling clients in a note that IDP's current fiscal year looks like being the low point for student flows due to uncertainty over visa regulations, but that the Australia-listed company looks uniquely placed to take market share. Murdoch expects earnings to fall 12% in fiscal 2025 but sees a 21% jump over the subsequent 12 months. Morgans raises its target price by 4.6% to A$18.20. Shares are up 1.4% at A$16.23. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

0023 GMT - Jefferies analyst Roger Samuel sees early signs that Xero may be gaining more traction in the U.S. with its cloud-accounting software. He tells clients in a note that the Australia-listed company's recent global roadshow event in Nashville was well attended, with crowds significantly larger than at its 2022 event in New Orleans. Samuel says that there were more third-party app vendors there and that most accountants are pleased that Xero has improved its core functionalities. He is also positive on the prospects for the embedding of Bill.com's bill-paying solution later this year. Jefferies has a buy rating and A$160.36 target price on the stock, which is up 0.3% at A$143.56. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2324 GMT - The expected net proceeds coming from Perpetual's sale of its corporate-trust and wealth-management units is in line with Macquarie's expectations, its analysts say in a note. Ahead of the Australian financial company's FY 2024 results, Macquarie had estimated net proceeds of A$9.24/share from the sale of the units, but Perpetual now says it expects A$8.38-A$9.82/share, with a A$106 million-A$227 million tax liability and A$78 million-A$121 million net debt adjustment the remaining swing factors. The investment bank maintains its "neutral" call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

2306 GMT - Slightly softer-than-expected FY 2024 revenue trends in all of Perpetual's three divisions and higher-than-expected guidance cost growth for 1H FY 2025 will likely place downward pressure on our earnings in FY 2025 says Citi analyst Nigel Pittaway in a note. The investment bank had previously forecast a modest decline in cost 1H FY 2025, but Perpetual on Thursday guided for 2%-4% growth in that period. Still, Citi reckons Trillium, Barrow Hanley and Australia should have a better year in FY 2025, although continued outflows from JO Hambro and TSW seem likely. "A new simplification program should also offer some cost savings," says Pittaway. Citi keeps its "neutral" call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

2259 ET - Australian fund manager Platinum's cost out is progressing, Goldman Sachs analysts Julian Braganza and Brian Kim reckon. In a note they say Platinum is targeting A$15 million of savings in FY 2025, with 80% already identified or captured, and A$5 million planned for FY 2026. The analysts see largely run rate benefits in FY 2025. At the same time, they say they don't assume funds flow benefits to come from new products or partner arrangements, and assume cost-out benefits are partially offset by inflation. GS has a "sell" call on the stock. (alice.uribe@wsj.com)

0749 GMT - Financial volatility like this month's sharp equities selloff will likely continue to periodically test economic resilience until central banks' policy paths turn more predictable, Moody's Ratings says. Financial markets have focused on U.S. inflation for the last year, with expectations around the prospects of recession and Fed policy shifting rapidly. Data has now reset expectations in line with Moody's view that Fed cuts are just a matter of time, but more sporadic volatility can't be ruled out. It thinks most major central banks will be on an easing path by 3Q, which should help stabilize global credit conditions and facilitate continued expansion. Notable exceptions include Australia, where Moody's thinks easing is unlikely before 2025.(fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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